Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3715607 times)

rros

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 995
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10610 on: October 14, 2018, 10:12:22 AM »
Otting may be the next FHFA director.

Not sure if he said this, it appears here, kind of confusing for me who said it.

https://www.americanbanker.com/list/regulatory-relief-manna-from-heaven-comments-of-the-week

On a look at where the housing finance system stands 10 years after the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

"Don't be gulled by those who claim there a consensus to reform the GSEs. Zandi, Parrot, Stegman, and others, with their Senate R allies--were "banking" on (pun intended) that --but LOST, when their proposal ignored the GSE's affordable housing roles causing no Senate Banking Committee support. That occurred before the FDIC this year it said was the big banks and their poorly underwritten, falsely rated, private label mortgage securities (PLS) which caused the 2008 financial debacle."

This ihub is interesting

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=141287457
Articles by Otting
https://www.americanbanker.com/author/joseph-otting


rros

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 995
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10611 on: October 14, 2018, 02:29:58 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-tennessee/in-tennessee-a-democrat-scrambles-to-turn-out-voters-as-polls-show-slide-idUSKCN1MO0C7

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/04/01/a-step-in-the-right-direction-for-fannie-mae-and-f.aspx
Although Marsha Blackburn could be a much better congress person for FF shareholders, we cannot rely on what happened many years ago. This is politics. It is unwise to think that Calabria at FHFA or Blackburn replacing Corker would mean 'stars are aligning'.

Luke 5:32

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2648
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10612 on: October 15, 2018, 06:54:56 AM »
Chairman of MBA this morning...

https://twitter.com/DoddFrankUpdate/status/1051822050451578880
Chris George on #GSE reform: "We have got to get our agencies out of conservatorship." #MBAAnnual18
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc

Luke 5:32

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2648
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10613 on: October 15, 2018, 08:36:24 AM »
Chairman of MBA this morning...

https://twitter.com/DoddFrankUpdate/status/1051822050451578880
Chris George on #GSE reform: "We have got to get our agencies out of conservatorship." #MBAAnnual18

https://twitter.com/DoddFrankUpdate/status/1051856893189246976
Phillips: administration advocates end of conservatorship and a return of Fannie and Freddie to private ownership. #MBAAnnual18
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc

Luke 5:32

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2648
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc

rros

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 995
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10615 on: October 15, 2018, 08:56:43 AM »
Video of Phillips: https://twitter.com/MBAMortgage/status/1051860342362390528
Thank you.

-> explicit guarantee fully paid paid for and on budget
- > charters removed (requires Congress)
- > seeks level-playing field through sizing (meaning, imo, shrinking FF).

Luke 5:32

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2648
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10616 on: October 15, 2018, 09:30:31 AM »
Where oh where are we going to get the necessary money for infrastructure plans? :-)

https://twitter.com/austinpkilgore/status/1051871781374574592
"We should think of housing as core infrastructure of the country," similar to roads and transportation, says outgoing @FannieMae CEO Tim Mayopolous #MBAAnnual18
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 09:34:14 AM by Luke 5:32 »
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc

orthopa

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 803
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10617 on: October 15, 2018, 11:45:59 AM »
Am I wrong in saying this is the first time Phillips has confirmed or said these things? Again market not buying it or ignoring it. Maybe market thinking time to implementation makes the securities still unattractive at these prices? Not sure what else needs to be said here besides when and how much. Market saying still no more then 25% of par at this point.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 12:24:57 PM by orthopa »

investorG

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 720
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10618 on: October 15, 2018, 12:07:16 PM »
Am I wrong in saying this is the first time Phillips has confirmed or said these things? Again market not buying it or ignoring it. Maybe market thinking time to implementation makes the securities still unattractive at these prices? Not sure what else needs to be said here besides when and how much. Market saying still no more then 25% of par at this point.

Phillips' comments seem good.  hopefully they are 'all in' to get this done in 2019 rather than just talking points.  His bullets appear to confirm the Mulvaney OMB plan from a few months ago and don't seem aligned with the House republicans' ginnie mae lovefest.

muted reaction could possibly be a) disappointed people who were still clinging to near term administrative action and b) supply overhang from hedge funds like highfields (gse owner) closing and possibly forced redemptions from owners like fairholme (see their performance).

hopefully they go hard in 2019 on this.  assuming they throw in some affordable housing $, it is not impossible for Congress to get this done next year with base case Pat Toomey and Maxine Waters leading and getting a lot but not all of what they want.

investorG

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 720
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10619 on: October 15, 2018, 12:15:46 PM »
We know how important 110 billion is to the admin. Why would 150-200 billion from warrants be not important?


when including dilution and lower earnings from higher competition forward looking, its probably more like 75-100bn value to the govt from warrants.