FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[onyx1]

Updated Moelis Blueprint


http://gsesafetyandsoundness.com/2018/11/09/oneyearlater/

[cherzeca]

Updated Moelis Blueprint


http://gsesafetyandsoundness.com/2018/11/09/oneyearlater/

thanks onyx!

someone from maxine Walter's district should send her a copy and give her office a call.  (my experience is that house staff respect district-based constituent inquiries only)

[investorG]

Updated Moelis Blueprint


http://gsesafetyandsoundness.com/2018/11/09/oneyearlater/

very interesting --- professional analysis with some attractive share price targets.   hopefully it's weekend reading for mnuchin and phillips. 

[cherzeca]

Updated Moelis Blueprint


http://gsesafetyandsoundness.com/2018/11/09/oneyearlater/

very interesting --- professional analysis with some attractive share price targets.   hopefully it's weekend reading for mnuchin and phillips.

we are all indebted to Paulson and the other non-litigating junior preferred holders.  the blueprint was ripe for updating and now is a great time to reintroduce it into the public debate...indeed, its merits have only improved compared to one year earlier.  but this update wouldn't have happened without the junior pref holders writing the check.

[investorG]

Updated Moelis Blueprint


http://gsesafetyandsoundness.com/2018/11/09/oneyearlater/

very interesting --- professional analysis with some attractive share price targets.   hopefully it's weekend reading for mnuchin and phillips.

we are all indebted to Paulson and the other non-litigating junior preferred holders.  the blueprint was ripe for updating and now is a great time to reintroduce it into the public debate...indeed, its merits have only improved compared to one year earlier.  but this update wouldn't have happened without the junior pref holders writing the check.

indeed - thank you Mr. Paulson.

I liked how it incorporated some preferences from mnuchin as options.

I guess what we're hoping for is a different tune from mnuchin and phillips regarding charter repeal, multiple guarantors, etc, with the cover that it's now hard to pull off with the Democratic House.

[Luke 5:32]

Partial conversion of prefs...  I wonder what percentage of prefs will convert vs. the amount that will not.  I wonder at what percentage of par the conversion will take place. It will also be interesting to see at what price (relative to par) the non-converted prefs trade in the market.

[Luke 5:32]

Partial conversion of prefs...  I wonder what percentage of prefs will convert vs. the amount that will not.  I wonder at what percentage of par the conversion will take place. It will also be interesting to see at what price (relative to par) the non-converted prefs trade in the market.

Specifically, I'm curious about FMCCL, FNMAH, and FNMAS.

I know it depends on dividend rate, when the dividend might be re-instated, etc. but (1) what are your thoughts on where these three securities would trade if NOT converted?  (2) Would yield even matter for conversion terms, settlement terms, etc.?


Thanks in advance for your input!

[cherzeca]

Partial conversion of prefs...  I wonder what percentage of prefs will convert vs. the amount that will not.  I wonder at what percentage of par the conversion will take place. It will also be interesting to see at what price (relative to par) the non-converted prefs trade in the market.

Specifically, I'm curious about FMCCL, FNMAH, and FNMAS.

I know it depends on dividend rate, when the dividend might be re-instated, etc. but (1) what are your thoughts on where these three securities would trade if NOT converted?  (2) Would yield even matter for conversion terms, settlement terms, etc.?


Thanks in advance for your input!

one additional data point is when issuer can call these prefs.  if there is a near term call date and rates stay low to moderate, issuer can simply call and refinance at lower rate.  if no near term call date, then issuer might contemplate richer conversion offer

[Wiggins]

Partial conversion of prefs...  I wonder what percentage of prefs will convert vs. the amount that will not.  I wonder at what percentage of par the conversion will take place. It will also be interesting to see at what price (relative to par) the non-converted prefs trade in the market.

Specifically, I'm curious about FMCCL, FNMAH, and FNMAS.

I know it depends on dividend rate, when the dividend might be re-instated, etc. but (1) what are your thoughts on where these three securities would trade if NOT converted?  (2) Would yield even matter for conversion terms, settlement terms, etc.?


Thanks in advance for your input!

one additional data point is when issuer can call these prefs.  if there is a near term call date and rates stay low to moderate, issuer can simply call and refinance at lower rate.  if no near term call date, then issuer might contemplate richer conversion offer

The contracts of the JPS securities each specify different terms for callability. Last time I checked they are all callable either continuously or  quarterly except FNMAS (callable 12/31/2020) and FMCKJ (callable 12/31/2022).

Another reason Moelis may have raised the share price is the lowering of corporate tax rates from 35% to 21%, which makes the companies more profitable.

When would the sweep for Q4 occur? I ask because if Moelis is enacted they will have to make an announcement before that date.

[DocSnowball]

Updated Moelis Blueprint


http://gsesafetyandsoundness.com/2018/11/09/oneyearlater/

thanks onyx!

someone from maxine Walter's district should send her a copy and give her office a call.  (my experience is that house staff respect district-based constituent inquiries only)

great idea!