Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3642207 times)

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11710 on: February 18, 2019, 09:44:00 AM »
wall funding:

"A senior White House official familiar with the plan told ABC News that $1.375 billion would come from the spending bill Congress passed Thursday; $600 million would come from the Treasury Department's drug forfeiture fund; $2.5 billion would come from the Pentagon's drug interdiction program; and through an emergency declaration: $3.5 billion from the Pentagon's military construction budget."

none from GSEs?!

At first I thought that meant warrant money, but the bigger omission is the NWS money. That alone would make up most of those costs.


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11711 on: February 18, 2019, 02:36:09 PM »
the spending bills have been signed and there are no reports that any "jumpstart" provisions were snuck into them.  right?

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11712 on: February 18, 2019, 02:52:07 PM »
the spending bills have been signed and there are no reports that any "jumpstart" provisions were snuck into them.  right?

That was what I was gonna ask about.
Regarding timing of the next round of events, I don't expect anything big to come before the 19th deadline for asking Calabria questions, but I also wonder if anything material would come before the senate vote? I assume big things before the vote may change the outcome of the vote right? So that puts us at late March.
And then 5th circuit aims at 60 days after hearing for the ruling for most cases, so that's also late March.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 02:54:35 PM by muscleman »
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11713 on: February 18, 2019, 03:53:55 PM »
These 2 versions have no "GSE", "jump", "fannie", "conservatorship", "preferred" or "warrant" in them.
https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20190211/CRPT-116hrpt9.pdf
https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20190211/CRPT-116hrpt9_u2-.pdf

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11714 on: February 18, 2019, 06:52:01 PM »
thanks rros

@MM the attorney who argued collins en banc, David thompson, said that en banc decisions take about 5 months as a mean.  makes some sense as 16 judges are involved in reading majority draft, thinking about writing a dissent or a concurring opinion etc

I don't necessarily think anything will happen on Admin plan front for a while, until at least after calabria is confirmed.  which I am fine with if that happens since trump's going it alone on wall funding is not a good context for what congress will likely think is a go it alone plan in housing finance

Seahug

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11715 on: February 18, 2019, 07:59:13 PM »

 Pref prices are truly unbelievable...

Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack.

But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par.

Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal.

You're just messin' with us, so please say something useful or move on. If Bradford is considering shldq (i.e., the common), then he is not running out of steam; rather he has lost his mind and any value investing credentials he might claim.

Messin' is not my intention. It's a note of caution that there's significant risk. This is much less predictable and has taken much longer than buying run of the mill chap 11 or near chap 11 bonds (done a number of times - ukraine, worldcom, conseco, etc).  It's also my guess than many would take significantly less than par for the jprefs given these factors which suggests a price ceiling if one were to add. If I recall the Citi pref conversion was at 60%.

Prudence and price information ... I dunno - doesn't seem useless to me but maybe everyone knows everything already. Glen (100% and margined) and Berkowitz (35% concentration and forced to liquidate half) may have lacked prudence. But it's not over as long as we survive.

Cheers!

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11716 on: February 19, 2019, 04:37:13 AM »

 Pref prices are truly unbelievable...

Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack.

But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par.

Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal.

If common are worth a cent, juniors are worth par. Nothing but par for me.

while this might be true 'in the end',  it's not necessarily accurate for 'in the mean time' and the latter stage can last many years.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11717 on: February 19, 2019, 04:48:58 AM »

 Pref prices are truly unbelievable...

Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack.

But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par.

Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal.

You're just messin' with us, so please say something useful or move on. If Bradford is considering shldq (i.e., the common), then he is not running out of steam; rather he has lost his mind and any value investing credentials he might claim.

Messin' is not my intention. It's a note of caution that there's significant risk. This is much less predictable and has taken much longer than buying run of the mill chap 11 or near chap 11 bonds (done a number of times - ukraine, worldcom, conseco, etc).  It's also my guess than many would take significantly less than par for the jprefs given these factors which suggests a price ceiling if one were to add. If I recall the Citi pref conversion was at 60%.

Prudence and price information ... I dunno - doesn't seem useless to me but maybe everyone knows everything already. Glen (100% and margined) and Berkowitz (35% concentration and forced to liquidate half) may have lacked prudence. But it's not over as long as we survive.

Cheers!

I agree.  Even in a positive scenario, political factors alone would likely dictate a cap (or conversion rate) at some level below par.  everyone would need to sacrifice, and I believe the large holders know this and are fine with it.  I don't want to debate this as it's a purely subjective view but imo forgone dividends aren't likely enough to satisfy the decision makers in the admin or congress.  there's a reason why many smart investors wake up every day and decide to sell a lot of $ of jr preferred: because there's a wide range of outcomes even at this moment.  and on a separate note, picking personal fights with widely-followed reporters isn't helpful.

Seahug

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11718 on: February 19, 2019, 05:42:28 AM »

, picking personal fights with widely-followed reporters isn't helpful.

Actually I have a lot of respect and appreciation for Glen Bradford's speed on reporting, diligence in covering legal proceedings and overall effort on this and I've posted that before.

My comments were paraphrasing his recent tweets:

https://twitter.com/DoNotLose/status/1096325667015270401

"Hurry up already. It's hard to sit still anymore. Like what... ~2.5-3x upside on the preferred to par? Waited years and I'm losing my mind. Watching life pass me by shifts to just looking away into outer space"

He's also been quite open with having to borrow to fund his position and the accumulated interest adding materially to his cost/pref.

« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 05:52:18 AM by Seahug »

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11719 on: February 19, 2019, 05:52:13 AM »

, picking personal fights with widely-followed reporters isn't helpful.

Actually I have a lot of respect and appreciation for Glen Bradford's speed on reporting, diligence in covering legal proceedings and overall effort on this and I've posted that before.

My comments were paraphrasing his recent tweets:

https://twitter.com/DoNotLose/status/1096325667015270401

"Hurry up already. It's hard to sit still anymore. Like what... ~2.5-3x upside on the preferred to par? Waited years and I'm losing my mind. Watching life pass me by shifts to just looking away into outer space"

I wasn't referring to you and Bradford.  rather the recent attacks on gasparino.  while it's great to point out his arguments' (many imo) flaws, the situation has deteriorated quickly which is unfortunate.