Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3730688 times)

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12780 on: June 26, 2019, 11:20:00 AM »
sorry to be blunt, but that is borderline delusional. you might say, perhaps I am the delusional one? could be! but i say, always better to entertain disconfirming narratives (esp when coming from experts with insider knowledge like tim howard) than confirming. good luck everyone.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 11:23:38 AM by hardincap »


Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12781 on: June 26, 2019, 11:31:44 AM »
sorry to be blunt, but that is borderline delusional. you might say, perhaps I am the delusional one? could be! but i say, always better to entertain disconfirming narratives (esp when coming from experts with insider knowledge like tim howard) than confirming. good luck everyone.

I don't get offended, so no worries on being blunt.  I appreciate your arguments but don't think they are as nearly as plausible as the case for a favorable plan for shareholders being announced and then acted upon.  Again, appreciate your input.  Differing opinions make a market, which is why I have long loved this game.
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc
"Life will rise, death will die..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_uJYKoHhQo

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12782 on: June 26, 2019, 11:39:17 AM »
luke, the "ecstatic" comment doesnt connect with "shareholders who spoke with calabria". this article is very ambiguous and cannot be relied on. even if it were reliable, you still have to explain how we went from "signed off" plan in 2-4 weeks to draft 6 months later, with the key author abruptly resigning before draft is finalizled. basically, you're overreaching. confirmation bias is a b****

edit: this will be my last comment on this matter. my main point is there are much greater risks of plan being derailed than is being talked about here. just my 2c, take it or leave it.

How come you are bearish on this and still hold the position?
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12783 on: June 26, 2019, 11:41:56 AM »
luke, the "ecstatic" comment doesnt connect with "shareholders who spoke with calabria". this article is very ambiguous and cannot be relied on. even if it were reliable, you still have to explain how we went from "signed off" plan in 2-4 weeks to draft 6 months later, with the key author abruptly resigning before draft is finalizled. basically, you're overreaching. confirmation bias is a b****

edit: this will be my last comment on this matter. my main point is there are much greater risks of plan being derailed than is being talked about here. just my 2c, take it or leave it.

How come you are bearish on this and still hold the position?

One investor being more bearish than another doesn't mean the former is a bear, just means he's not as bullish for the reasons he laid out.
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc
"Life will rise, death will die..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_uJYKoHhQo

Jcmeg35

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12784 on: June 26, 2019, 11:43:44 AM »
To throw another hat in the ring, I have felt the positive narrative has slowed the last couple of weeks. With fewer Public appearances and statements by Calabria, and reporting and rumors that indicate something may have changed/momentum has slowed. This is obviously a very tenuous process with a lot of obstacles, and entrenched interest that make it practically and politically tough to get done.

While the ABS article seemed to be bullish, there has been more bearish anecdotes and seeming delays in timeline of late that, I think definitely warrants concern.

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12785 on: June 26, 2019, 11:49:51 AM »
One investor being more bearish than another doesn't mean the former is a bear, just means he's not as bullish for the reasons he laid out.

+1

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12786 on: June 26, 2019, 12:53:40 PM »
You are wrong to compare ABS to a seeking alpha or forum like here. Its a professional industry subscription service that charges ~$4,500+/yr and has very little retail subscribers like ourselves.

Quote
we know from the leaked remarks made by Acting Director Otting to the FHFA staff in mid-January that there was an administrative proposal set be announced “in two to four weeks” that “really sets a direction for what the future of housing will be in the U.S.,” and that would require raising “probably somewhere, based upon their business models today, [in the range of] $150 to $200 billion.” Something happened to derail that plan, and I believe it was a swift and fierce show of opposition by the banks and their supporters

imo craig's abrupt resignation has to be interpreted in this context. occams razor explanation is that whatever happened to derail the original plan caused him to resign. what happens now, i dont think anyone has a clue...

Well, whatever the plan is large investors are "ecstatic" about it as of June 7th.
Fannie and Freddie stockholders were ecstatic at Calabria’s statements. “It’s exactly what we laid out,” one investor said. “The goal of this president is what can be done administratively. You can see there’s a focus on getting it done.”

https://www.abalert.com/search.pl?ARTICLE=183913

The chart tells me a different story. Since that time, the behavior has totally changed on the chart. I don't think ABA is a place where they have a collective interesting to make money for its readers. It is more like other forums like here or seeking alpha for spreading information.
If these "insiders" really know something so "ecstatic", the chart behavior would not look like what we've seen since then.

I wish it would be so easy to pay only $4500 a year to enter an elite circle whose members are so nice and considerate that they actually CARE about me making money.
I've never seen a single financial writer who actually cares about whether his readers can make money off his articles.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12787 on: June 26, 2019, 12:56:37 PM »
Lol they rarely even write about stocks/GSEs if ever. Most of their publication revolves around the securitization business, which the GSEs happen to come up from time to time (i think twice in the last 6 months). This isnt your retail pump newsletter.

Just look at this recent article pumping CRT-backed bonds!! /sarcasm
https://www.abalert.com/search.pl?ARTICLE=184680

Besides, the meetings they claimed took place on June 7th that no one else reported on but them turned out to be true based off WSJ's reporting from yesterday. Weird for a pump newsletter to have access to such insider information...

You are wrong to compare ABS to a seeking alpha or forum like here. Its a professional industry subscription service that charges ~$4,500+/yr and has very little retail subscribers like ourselves.

Quote
we know from the leaked remarks made by Acting Director Otting to the FHFA staff in mid-January that there was an administrative proposal set be announced “in two to four weeks” that “really sets a direction for what the future of housing will be in the U.S.,” and that would require raising “probably somewhere, based upon their business models today, [in the range of] $150 to $200 billion.” Something happened to derail that plan, and I believe it was a swift and fierce show of opposition by the banks and their supporters

imo craig's abrupt resignation has to be interpreted in this context. occams razor explanation is that whatever happened to derail the original plan caused him to resign. what happens now, i dont think anyone has a clue...

Well, whatever the plan is large investors are "ecstatic" about it as of June 7th.
Fannie and Freddie stockholders were ecstatic at Calabria’s statements. “It’s exactly what we laid out,” one investor said. “The goal of this president is what can be done administratively. You can see there’s a focus on getting it done.”

https://www.abalert.com/search.pl?ARTICLE=183913

The chart tells me a different story. Since that time, the behavior has totally changed on the chart. I don't think ABA is a place where they have a collective interesting to make money for its readers. It is more like other forums like here or seeking alpha for spreading information.
If these "insiders" really know something so "ecstatic", the chart behavior would not look like what we've seen since then.

I wish it would be so easy to pay only $4500 a year to enter an elite circle whose members are so nice and considerate that they actually CARE about me making money.
I've never seen a single financial writer who actually cares about whether his readers can make money off his articles.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 01:01:16 PM by allnatural »

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12788 on: June 26, 2019, 01:18:13 PM »
Quote
we know from the leaked remarks made by Acting Director Otting to the FHFA staff in mid-January that there was an administrative proposal set be announced “in two to four weeks” that “really sets a direction for what the future of housing will be in the U.S.,” and that would require raising “probably somewhere, based upon their business models today, [in the range of] $150 to $200 billion.” Something happened to derail that plan, and I believe it was a swift and fierce show of opposition by the banks and their supporters

imo craig's abrupt resignation has to be interpreted in this context. occams razor explanation is that whatever happened to derail the original plan caused him to resign. what happens now, i dont think anyone has a clue...

phillips had been consistent about returning to private sector after 2 years.  also was just awarded treasury's Alexander Hamilton award.  still sticking with the fired scenario?

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12789 on: June 26, 2019, 01:27:08 PM »
re Occam's razor, the simplest explanation is that mnuchin doesn't want the treasury plan delivered to potus until he has signed off on it, and he has been derailed by trade and sanction issues.  one may also speculate that the HUD plan hasn't been finalized yet (I dont see HUD as a particularly efficient agency) and that the inter-agency review is still ongoing.  there are many possibilities.  I just dont think one of these possibilities is that Craig (if I may be so bold as to first name) was fired

btw I have found in life that the simplest explanation is usually wrong

edit: also, I dont believe that disputing that phillips was fired, or concluding that otting was just pep talking out of turn, is an example of confirmation bias.  it simply means that I am unconvinced.  real easy to be unconvinced that phillips was fired when he said multiple times he was going to finish his work on the plan and return to the private sector

edit 2:  as for Occam's razor, occam was a philosopher critiquing other philosopher's speculations regarding metaphysics...not exactly transferable to a heuristic to explain human conduct
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 01:32:51 PM by cherzeca »