Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3727698 times)

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13380 on: August 28, 2019, 02:56:40 PM »
is good news already baked in the stock? fhfa director strongly hinting at cancellation of nws and wsj reporting on continued backing from treasury hasnt really moved the stock. if we get all the things already reported, i wonder if the stock even moves up at all. it may even fall if congress speaks out strongly against it


muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13381 on: August 28, 2019, 03:03:00 PM »
is good news already baked in the stock? fhfa director strongly hinting at cancellation of nws and wsj reporting on continued backing from treasury hasnt really moved the stock. if we get all the things already reported, i wonder if the stock even moves up at all. it may even fall if congress speaks out strongly against it

I bet big players already know the details of the plan. It must have been reviewed by lots of people in this admin, which is known for leaky news.
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Ahab

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13382 on: August 28, 2019, 04:01:05 PM »
I think the stock isn't responding more to the upcoming release of the plan because no one truly believes the plan is coming out. They hope the plan is coming out! It's been delay, delay, delay for months/years...
Another thought I have is that perhaps everybody who wants in is already in and has been for years. The plan being released would be a catalyst for large upward price movement, but also the entrance of a new sort of shareholder that craves a greater degree of certainty in their investments.
Long: FNMAT, FNMAN, FMCCL, FMCKO, BAC, JPM, GOOG, JD, MO/PM
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muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13383 on: August 28, 2019, 04:13:18 PM »
I think the stock isn't responding more to the upcoming release of the plan because no one truly believes the plan is coming out. They hope the plan is coming out! It's been delay, delay, delay for months/years...
Another thought I have is that perhaps everybody who wants in is already in and has been for years. The plan being released would be a catalyst for large upward price movement, but also the entrance of a new sort of shareholder that craves a greater degree of certainty in their investments.


your statement suggests that price will not move until material news comes out. Check the chart in March and ask why the stock started a strong rally days before the White House initiative was released?
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

stevevri

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13384 on: August 28, 2019, 04:22:52 PM »
is good news already baked in the stock? fhfa director strongly hinting at cancellation of nws and wsj reporting on continued backing from treasury hasnt really moved the stock. if we get all the things already reported, i wonder if the stock even moves up at all. it may even fall if congress speaks out strongly against it

I would be cautious as to what to expect from this plan. We know a plan is coming. We also know that the FHFA & Treasury have to negotiate to end the net sweep, and we know there has to be IPOs. Calabria has said that could be up to the companies.

All of these things could happen down the line from each other.  The first plan could rather generally lay out principles including suggestions and direct the FHFA & Treasury to negotiate for the NWS. The FHFA & Treasury could then negotiate end the sweep and then like Calabria said it could then be up to the companies to raise capital.

Ahab

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13385 on: August 28, 2019, 04:52:47 PM »
I think the new few weeks are the real deal and the market isn't reacting to it because "once bitten, twice shy."
This board is skeptical. GSE Twitter is skeptical. Unless you have material, non-public information, you should be skeptical right now. Even if you do, you probably should still be skeptical, because this is the Trump administration after all.
Long: FNMAT, FNMAN, FMCCL, FMCKO, BAC, JPM, GOOG, JD, MO/PM
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cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13386 on: August 28, 2019, 05:07:35 PM »
the plan will be short on specifics, which will be ironed out later in a negotiation between fhfa and treasury (the ultimate terms of which I imagine had already been broadly discussed).  but I dont see what fear one should have of congress blowback.  the plan will provide congress a role. the administration will ignore any blowback since it has made clear what it views as congress' role (charter competition and limited fed mbs guy). congress can do it or not, and of course it won't. let blowhards blowback.

i wonder when collins en banc is released....

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13387 on: August 29, 2019, 07:29:47 AM »
I think we may get a little bump from the plan release but like Ahab mentions who really believes its coming? Otting supposedly let the cat out of the bag almost 8 months ago now. People are tired and want details and their return on investment. Secondly if you want to be in, your in by now and probably have since as early as mnuchin on fox news or at any other bullish mnuchin/trump/otting/calabria comment on the way.

I think what really has the most potential to move the common/preferred are a stop to the NWS after this coming earnings report. FHFA captial rules which likely affect common the most, and then recap/IPO plan.  Of course Enbanc is a wild card in there too.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13388 on: August 29, 2019, 07:32:43 AM »
I think the stock isn't responding more to the upcoming release of the plan because no one truly believes the plan is coming out. They hope the plan is coming out! It's been delay, delay, delay for months/years...
Another thought I have is that perhaps everybody who wants in is already in and has been for years. The plan being released would be a catalyst for large upward price movement, but also the entrance of a new sort of shareholder that craves a greater degree of certainty in their investments.


your statement suggests that price will not move until material news comes out. Check the chart in March and ask why the stock started a strong rally days before the White House initiative was released?

I think the stock started a strong rally because multiple news outlets were reporting the the trump administration was releasing a plan soon. It was being discussed up to a week ahead of time if I remember correctly plus you had the Calabria confirmation process going on and the Otting comments.

The most recent time that the preferred moved up was just recently when material information again...regarding an upcoming release of the plan was coming after labor day.

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13389 on: August 29, 2019, 08:10:09 AM »
I think the stock isn't responding more to the upcoming release of the plan because no one truly believes the plan is coming out. They hope the plan is coming out! It's been delay, delay, delay for months/years...
Another thought I have is that perhaps everybody who wants in is already in and has been for years. The plan being released would be a catalyst for large upward price movement, but also the entrance of a new sort of shareholder that craves a greater degree of certainty in their investments.


your statement suggests that price will not move until material news comes out. Check the chart in March and ask why the stock started a strong rally days before the White House initiative was released?

I think the stock started a strong rally because multiple news outlets were reporting the the trump administration was releasing a plan soon. It was being discussed up to a week ahead of time if I remember correctly plus you had the Calabria confirmation process going on and the Otting comments.

The most recent time that the preferred moved up was just recently when material information again...regarding an upcoming release of the plan was coming after labor day.

Maybe my memory was messed up, but I do not recall any news on the trump admin's plan. It suddenly came out. I remember Chris commented that this was a game changer on that day.
Unlike that move up, this recent move up has been a low quality one, so be careful. I am not long yet. I think odds are lower this time than last time. So even if I go long again, I'll bet a smaller size this time.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!