Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3996774 times)

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14930 on: March 25, 2020, 11:57:41 AM »
PLS had been making a small comeback...now they will be dead in the water for awhile.  once again, GSEs are the only game in town


orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14931 on: March 25, 2020, 12:11:43 PM »
Bloomberg Intelligence report out this morning (see attached).  It basically says if the economy (and housing) gets crushed for a sustained period of time, then the Admin plans will be delayed.  If the economy (and housing) has deep problems but rebound fairly quickly, then the Admin plan is still on track for calendar year 2020.  Nothing surprising with that assessment.

Probably worth noting the previous comments on this thread about CRT's and the like and how that will soften much of the blow in a recession.

I would assume (yeah I know what assume means) that unless there is a complete melt down and FnF have to draw on the Treasury again the recap plan should continue forward. All the upcoming steps really are not dependent on the economy other then raising capital which is still ~12 months away at the soonest. The capital rule is written. Mnuchin and Calabria have been "negotiating" another PSPA amendment for 7 months and I would be quite sure 2 amendments are on the table based on legal outcome.

I would still strongly believe that some hedge will be put in place before the election. I think this has been the plan all along as the election is a toss up. Some believe that even if Trump loses the ~3 months afterwards is enough time to get all the ducks in a row before the democrat is sworn in.

Two things which were discussed which I hope gain some traction going forward are 1. Just how punitive the bailout to Fannie was when compared to bailouts being done now. 2. Just how much FnF helped during this crisis and their value to the system. The Fed had to step in, in a big way but imagine the banks being on the hook for all of this? Jesus. What a mess that would be.

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14932 on: March 25, 2020, 12:35:40 PM »
From Bloomberg:

*CALABRIA: CRISIS DOESN'T YET AFFECT FANNIE-FREDDIE TIMELINE
*CALABRIA: GSES WILL BE STRESSED IF CRISIS EXCEEDS TWO MONTHS

He also mentioned he still expects to get them out by 2021, 2022 (im assuming this means the IPO but was pretty vague this time around).

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14933 on: March 25, 2020, 12:50:12 PM »
From Bloomberg:

*CALABRIA: CRISIS DOESN'T YET AFFECT FANNIE-FREDDIE TIMELINE
*CALABRIA: GSES WILL BE STRESSED IF CRISIS EXCEEDS TWO MONTHS

He also mentioned he still expects to get them out by 2021, 2022 (im assuming this means the IPO but was pretty vague this time around).

Lets hope for a quick recovery then, will probably depend heavily on when economy gets opened back up. Getting them out by 2021, 2022 was always the plan from a 100% out of conservatorship standpoint if the ACG timeline was to be believed. From a preferred stand point as Midas mentioned what really is needed is a PSAP amendment to get rid of the Srs. Even if the economy stresses FnF I think that should still be on the table and the legal story continues as well. Realistically capital cant be raised until early 2021 so out of conservatorship in 2021 maybe even a stretch, but by then Preferred should have been dealt with or their fate should be determined.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14934 on: March 25, 2020, 04:01:46 PM »
From Bloomberg:

*CALABRIA: CRISIS DOESN'T YET AFFECT FANNIE-FREDDIE TIMELINE
*CALABRIA: GSES WILL BE STRESSED IF CRISIS EXCEEDS TWO MONTHS

He also mentioned he still expects to get them out by 2021, 2022 (im assuming this means the IPO but was pretty vague this time around).

Lets hope for a quick recovery then, will probably depend heavily on when economy gets opened back up. Getting them out by 2021, 2022 was always the plan from a 100% out of conservatorship standpoint if the ACG timeline was to be believed. From a preferred stand point as Midas mentioned what really is needed is a PSAP amendment to get rid of the Srs. Even if the economy stresses FnF I think that should still be on the table and the legal story continues as well. Realistically capital cant be raised until early 2021 so out of conservatorship in 2021 maybe even a stretch, but by then Preferred should have been dealt with or their fate should be determined.

the big issue for GSEs will be CECL accounting adoption.  that will give rise to large credit reserves being established.  anyone know if the bill delays CECL?

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14935 on: March 25, 2020, 04:59:56 PM »
Sure looks like Calabria wants to drive home the point that we're still going to exit conservatorship. Tweeting himself and all (attached).
"I have never seen a tombstone say 'I didn't work enough.' Nobody ever heard a Father say 'I held my kids too much'" Spend A Life by David Dunn, listen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRYMn1mg8Ug&list=RDMMyUvxhGRUR3s&index=8

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14936 on: March 25, 2020, 06:00:04 PM »
Whoa.

https://twitter.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1242978538992611330
#CARESAct: Lesson learned? Any warrants need to be exercised by January 1, 2021. Want to bet that $FNMA and $FMCC warrants are exercised by January 1, 2021, too?
"I have never seen a tombstone say 'I didn't work enough.' Nobody ever heard a Father say 'I held my kids too much'" Spend A Life by David Dunn, listen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRYMn1mg8Ug&list=RDMMyUvxhGRUR3s&index=8

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14937 on: March 25, 2020, 07:22:38 PM »
CECL delay included in bill. see attached.

From Bloomberg:

*CALABRIA: CRISIS DOESN'T YET AFFECT FANNIE-FREDDIE TIMELINE
*CALABRIA: GSES WILL BE STRESSED IF CRISIS EXCEEDS TWO MONTHS

He also mentioned he still expects to get them out by 2021, 2022 (im assuming this means the IPO but was pretty vague this time around).

Lets hope for a quick recovery then, will probably depend heavily on when economy gets opened back up. Getting them out by 2021, 2022 was always the plan from a 100% out of conservatorship standpoint if the ACG timeline was to be believed. From a preferred stand point as Midas mentioned what really is needed is a PSAP amendment to get rid of the Srs. Even if the economy stresses FnF I think that should still be on the table and the legal story continues as well. Realistically capital cant be raised until early 2021 so out of conservatorship in 2021 maybe even a stretch, but by then Preferred should have been dealt with or their fate should be determined.

the big issue for GSEs will be CECL accounting adoption.  that will give rise to large credit reserves being established.  anyone know if the bill delays CECL?

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14938 on: March 25, 2020, 08:07:33 PM »
CECL delay included in bill. see attached.

Nice find!
"I have never seen a tombstone say 'I didn't work enough.' Nobody ever heard a Father say 'I held my kids too much'" Spend A Life by David Dunn, listen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRYMn1mg8Ug&list=RDMMyUvxhGRUR3s&index=8

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14939 on: March 26, 2020, 06:41:02 AM »
Sure looks like Calabria wants to drive home the point that we're still going to exit conservatorship. Tweeting himself and all (attached).

Im done trying to read the tea leaves with this investment but did find it interesting that he retweeted this. Maybe it was a bit of a public service announcement with discussion of forbearance etc.