Author Topic: Futures Limit Down  (Read 14481 times)

wescobrk

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Futures Limit Down
« on: March 22, 2020, 04:27:58 PM »
I have some shorts but I went long quite a bit in the last 5 min of Friday. So much for a bounce.
Maybe down 10% tomorrow? It is going to be an ugly day tomorrow.
I need more cash. How can we not go down more than 50% from the peak as bad as everything is?
The news will be even worse this week.


no_free_lunch

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2020, 05:40:19 PM »
I don't think it's as bad as 08 where it looked horrendous out for a decade.  I think there will be perhaps the the most severe recession ever but hopefully short and then followed by a huge rebound over the next year.  If businesses reflect all future cash flows it seems overdone.  In 10 years will this still have had an impact?

mcliu

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2020, 05:51:52 PM »
What’s the impact of prior pandemics on the economy?

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2020, 06:35:40 PM »
I don't think it's as bad as 08 where it looked horrendous out for a decade.  I think there will be perhaps the the most severe recession ever but hopefully short and then followed by a huge rebound over the next year.  If businesses reflect all future cash flows it seems overdone.  In 10 years will this still have had an impact?

We didn't start at 21x P/Es on 2008 either.
 
Also, cash flows more than 10+ years out make up very little of the valuation of the company. The contraction you're seeing now is from the expected impact over the 2-3 years.

There will be no V shaped recovery.

opihiman2

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2020, 06:36:14 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q

If this pans out, this will be worse than the Great Depression.  I'm calling it now, equities are going to tank past 60%.  We're looking at Great Depression levels of fuckery.  And this all started in 2008.  Those assholes should have fucked the economy back then.  But we all know they kicked the can way down the road, and the blowup will be 10x more severe.  It's not even the corona virus.  It's a financial crisis due to the greatest asset bubbles of ALL time: equities, housing, corporate debt, risk premium (or lack there of).  It's time to pay the pied piper.  And it's a big gay bear ready to fuck the bull in the ass.

arcube

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2020, 07:39:43 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q

If this pans out, this will be worse than the Great Depression.  I'm calling it now, equities are going to tank past 60%.  We're looking at Great Depression levels of fuckery.  And this all started in 2008.  Those assholes should have fucked the economy back then.  But we all know they kicked the can way down the road, and the blowup will be 10x more severe.  It's not even the corona virus.  It's a financial crisis due to the greatest asset bubbles of ALL time: equities, housing, corporate debt, risk premium (or lack there of).  It's time to pay the pied piper.  And it's a big gay bear ready to fuck the bull in the ass.

+1. Such tragedy but could not stop laughing on the gay bear remark. Thanks.

opihiman2

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2020, 07:54:09 PM »
Holy shit, and to add to all of this, Roubini was right about the political parties bickering and passing stimulus much later:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus-stimulus-congress-struggles-to-reach-a-deal.html

This whole week is going to be a blood bath!

james22

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2020, 10:40:45 PM »
It's time to pay the pied piper.  And it's a big gay bear ready to fuck the bull in the ass.

Signature worthy.
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meiroy

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2020, 11:18:45 PM »
Holy shit, and to add to all of this, Roubini was right about the political parties bickering and passing stimulus much later:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus-stimulus-congress-struggles-to-reach-a-deal.html

This whole week is going to be a blood bath!

My understanding from your posts is that we should buy this week.

petec

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2020, 12:01:02 AM »
There will be no V shaped recovery.

In the economy or in stocks? If the economy, why not?

The political response is interesting. I think the UK (for once) is leading the world on the fiscal response to this thing. If the US does not get this right the impact at ground level *could* look like the GD. But only briefly. Eventually the pressure on pols will be huge.
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