Author Topic: Futures Limit Down  (Read 13475 times)

kab60

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2020, 12:58:38 AM »
I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased. There are stocks that'll be multibaggers off these levels, still it sounds like a lot of people are almost 100 pct. cash and spend more time acting as hobby epidemiologist or prepping for zombie apocalypse. Denmark, where I live, seems to have flattened the curve after 12 days of lockdown. More countries in Europe seem to turn the corner. You Guys in the states might be last but you'll get through this as well. And all politicians seems pretty committed to use a fiscal bazooka if needed. Good luck to all.


KJP

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2020, 04:59:40 AM »
I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

Cigarbutt

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2020, 05:26:15 AM »
I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.
KJP, I understand your partially veiled impatience but it is hard to read what the Fed just announced and to continue as if it's business as usual..
FWIW, I read what you write but I don't understand most of the companies you mention. I do find Black Stone Minerals interesting and may contribute over the next few weeks, months.

meiroy

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2020, 05:48:12 AM »

I'd just like to point out, before they go limit down again, that at this moment in time the futures are actually positive.

KJP

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2020, 05:50:31 AM »
I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.
KJP, I understand your partially veiled impatience but it is hard to read what the Fed just announced and to continue as if it's business as usual..
FWIW, I read what you write but I don't understand most of the companies you mention. I do find Black Stone Minerals interesting and may contribute over the next few weeks, months.

Yes, I agree it's useful to think about the macro situation too in times like these.  And the Fed certainly isn't acting like it's business as usual.  But I'm always curious what people are looking at when they make general statements like "there are many big bargains right now," because I don't see that in general, but I also don't look at anything close to the entire universe of companies.  If nothing else, having more names to look at will keep me busy and, hopefully, more patient.   

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2020, 08:35:14 AM »
There will be no V shaped recovery.

In the economy or in stocks? If the economy, why not?

The political response is interesting. I think the UK (for once) is leading the world on the fiscal response to this thing. If the US does not get this right the impact at ground level *could* look like the GD. But only briefly. Eventually the pressure on pols will be huge.

In either.

The U.S. govt can't save everyone. There will be bankruptcies and lasting employment damage from this even with Fed and Treasury support and even if the virus disappeared and everything went back to normal by the end of this month.

In all reality, the social distancing works to prevent hospital overload now, but if we don't get a vaccine in the next six months you'll see this hit again in the fall and another subsequent drop off in activity since we don't yet have heard immunity. Even w/o govt restrictions, there will be people who voluntarily social distance because of concern about parents, or elderly colleagues, or themselves.

Each wave of the virus will likely be less and less impactful, but will still be impactful with long-term damage until heard immunity or a vaccine.

No V shaped recovery.

Also, fun fact, if earnings just dropped the traditional 30% they typically do in recessions than we're still @ 22x 2020 earnings and probably a steeply elevated multiple on 2021 earnings as well.

This has further to go.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2020, 08:50:35 AM »
Also, fun fact, if earnings just dropped the traditional 30% they typically do in recessions than we're still @ 22x 2020 earnings and probably a steeply elevated multiple on 2021 earnings as well.

The reported P/E ratio was highest in 2009 after the market bottomed.  It went to 123x in May 2009.

https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/73827/why-was-sp-500-pe-ratio-so-high-on-may-2009



TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2020, 09:15:39 AM »
Also, fun fact, if earnings just dropped the traditional 30% they typically do in recessions than we're still @ 22x 2020 earnings and probably a steeply elevated multiple on 2021 earnings as well.

The reported P/E ratio was highest in 2009 after the market bottomed.  It went to 123x in May 2009.

https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/73827/why-was-sp-500-pe-ratio-so-high-on-may-2009

Yup, and nowhere near that extreme to think the P/E has lost its meaning this time around. Of course if we get a one-off hit to earnings that popped us to 123x, is ignore it.

But a normal 30% decline in earnings that occurs in most recessions doesn't tend to pop P/Es to 120+ where they become meaningless and irrelevant - and the loss in earnings isn't immediately coming back which means we can't simply write off 20x because it'll be 15x in 2021.

kab60

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2020, 12:43:57 PM »
I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.
I don't even know where to begin. I think the ground is littered with bargains. Can they get cheaper? Sure. Who knows. I'm just surprised how pretty much every study indicates it's impossible to time the market (Ray Dalio called cash trash like 3 weeks before COVID-19 struck...), yet when I read this forum I get the sense the world is about to end and most prefer cash - which wasn't my impression two months ago. But perhaps people like myself have simply gotten our asses kicked (I have!) and stay low while all the cash-rich fellas' are looking to invest at the bottom.

KJP

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Re: Futures Limit Down
« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2020, 12:48:02 PM »
I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.
I don't even know where to begin. I think the ground is littered with bargains.

I'm not saying you're wrong.  I'm genuinely interested in understanding the companies you're referring to.