Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada

[wisdom]

Oddball - that is family income not per person.

[leftcoast]

But what we do know is that if most of the data comes from realtors, it's going to be heavily biased to help them, not the other way around. That's why they quietly revise last year's numbers downward to make this year's numbers look better or double and triple count sales just because they've been listed in more than one place and stuff like that.

Yeah, the realtor boards are shameless, but honestly I can't really blame them... their job is to sell houses, not provide an objective view of the market. Nobody expects a car salesman to give you objective and unbiased advice. Blaming realtors for pooping out dubious market data is like blaming a bird for pooping on your car. That's their job... it's just what they do.

Now the media on the other hand... their job is to inform the public and to ask hard questions of authority. So seeing the media just regurgitate the realtors' bad data without questioning it at all is pretty galling. They are either complicit or lazy.

And the CMHC, well... I'm not sure even they know exactly what their raison d'être is anymore. But you'd think an agency that is ultimately backstopping most of the residential mortgages in Canada would have some decent data on the internal dynamics of the housing market. But apparently not.

[augustabound]

Is this just in Vancouver city limits or have the suburbs been caught up in this too?
House prices seem reasonable in the burbs. (But I also don't know how nice these other cities are, Abbotsford, Langley, Maple Ridge etc)

In Toronto the last decade, as prices rose in T.O. so did the surrounding areas. We left Newmarket because we got more house for $200k less on a new build. But even prices in Barrie (an hour North) have rises quite a bit the last decade.

We're contemplating a move West and, at least to us, there seems to be a bit of a disconnect between Vancouver and the surrounding area.
Houses <$450k in our area only lists a few at any time. The same search outside of Vancouver lists lots of homes.

[SharperDingaan]

Travel west from Toronto to Mississauga; & the cost of a very similar house, drops by roughly 70K - just because it is no longer Metro TO. One GoTrain stop, maybe 5 minutes of additional commute, train goes every 30 minutes until 1AM in the morning. Keep going west from Mississauga, & the same thing happens again as you pass through Oakville & Burlington. A similar thing happens if you go north or east of Metro Toronto.

Go really west to Hamilton; same GoTrain line (no drive, no parking), but maybe a 90 minute commute to bank land. A many roomed century, & very modernized, mansion may set you back 650-750K; the similar mansion in a Toronto Parkdale (cruddy area) would cost you 1-1.25M, & a 30-40 minute subway commute to bank land. Buy that mansion in Rosedale (Toronto tony area), with maybe 5 minutes less commute, & its 1.75-2.25M. As property tax in Hamilton is less than 35% of what it would be in Toronto (lower value + lower mill rate), the cost of a monthly GoTrain pass is essentially free. Choice of lifestyle cost.

Toronto is no different to New York, London, Paris, SFO, etc.
Vancouver is just joining the club.

SD

[augustabound]

Hamilton is not "really West" of Toronto. The entire golden horseshoe is just one big sub-division now.

I grew up in Hamilton and commuted to Toronto for years (both GO Train and car) before moving North to Newmarket. (After a 1 year in Bloor West Village where it took as long to get to a grocery store as it does for me to get from Newmarket to the 401 on some days  )
All the highways and GO Trains are jam packed from 6AM now. I used to be able to get on the 400 at 6:45 and make decent time to the 401. Now the traffic starts at 5:30 and it started even further North.

People are finding Guelph and K-W are better alternative now. As is shown in the traffic on the 401 West of the 407 interchange.

I just wondered since we may move West for both of our careers, at times the Greater Vancouver area seems very similar to Toronto and other times is seems nothing alike. (I'm basing this off browsing MLS on the style of homes and prices)

So in 10 years a place like Abbotsford may be similar to a Newmarket, Oshawa or Burlington?

[Liberty]

But what we do know is that if most of the data comes from realtors, it's going to be heavily biased to help them, not the other way around. That's why they quietly revise last year's numbers downward to make this year's numbers look better or double and triple count sales just because they've been listed in more than one place and stuff like that.

Yeah, the realtor boards are shameless, but honestly I can't really blame them... their job is to sell houses, not provide an objective view of the market. Nobody expects a car salesman to give you objective and unbiased advice. Blaming realtors for pooping out dubious market data is like blaming a bird for pooping on your car. That's their job... it's just what they do.

Now the media on the other hand... their job is to inform the public and to ask hard questions of authority. So seeing the media just regurgitate the realtors' bad data without questioning it at all is pretty galling. They are either complicit or lazy.

And the CMHC, well... I'm not sure even they know exactly what their raison d'être is anymore. But you'd think an agency that is ultimately backstopping most of the residential mortgages in Canada would have some decent data on the internal dynamics of the housing market. But apparently not.

I also blame the media and the regulators, but I don't think realtors are blameless, even if there's no surprise in their behavior. Lying isn't a good thing, y'know.

[wisdom]

Vancouver is a smaller city compared to Toronto - 2.5 mil v 6+ mil.

An average commute here would be just north of 30 min whereas in Toronto it tends to be more like an hour.

Abbotsford is not included in Metro Vancouver and the transit system will offer you no connectivity. It would take you 1 hour and 15 mins to get into Vancouver from there by car.

[Liberty]

Canadians are getting screwed, probably because there's a lot less competition in most industries up here.

Retailers might complain about the US being over-retailed, but it has benefits for customers.

[NormR]

Companies in the US also sell 10 times the product they do in Canada so they can offer cheaper prices in the US. It's more expensive to set-up shop in canada.

There are still frictions at the border from duties, exchange rates, etc.  Add in higher costs for retail from wages/benefits/real estate, and the gap is fairly easy to explain. 

[50centdollars]

Canadians are getting screwed, probably because there's a lot less competition in most industries up here.

Retailers might complain about the US being over-retailed, but it has benefits for customers.

Retail is the only industry where there is competition in Canada. Everything else is either a monopoly or oligopoly.