Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada

[Liberty]

Pure madness...

[augustabound]

We're in Bradford, Ontario which is 45 minutes North of Toronto..................2.5 hours during evening rush. 

We're in a newer (4 year old) home. A few homes were up for sale last summer and into fall and sat on the market with little interest. These same homes went back on the market in the spring and all 4 have sold for more than the previous list price and within a week.

Our next door neighbour listed last spring for $549 and had little interest and a couple of "low" offers.
They listed again and sold the morning the listing hit the market. (obviously his listing agent already had a buyer lined up). He sold for $629 and had multiple offers. One was significantly higher but came with a phone book of conditions, so they knew to pass to save lots of frustration.

Another house friends lived in and sold 2 years ago for $469 recently sold for $619. This is the same model of home we're in and the new model from the builder is listed for $505.

The market is hot everywhere apparently.

[Liberty]

We're in Bradford, Ontario which is 45 minutes North of Toronto..................2.5 hours during evening rush. 

We're in a newer (4 year old) home. A few homes were up for sale last summer and into fall and sat on the market with little interest. These same homes went back on the market in the spring and all 4 have sold for more than the previous list price and within a week.

Our next door neighbour listed last spring for $549 and had little interest and a couple of "low" offers.
They listed again and sold the morning the listing hit the market. (obviously his listing agent already had a buyer lined up). He sold for $629 and had multiple offers. One was significantly higher but came with a phone book of conditions, so they knew to pass to save lots of frustration.

Another house friends lived in and sold 2 years ago for $469 recently sold for $619. This is the same model of home we're in and the new model from the builder is listed for $505.

The market is hot everywhere apparently.

I think the coming interest rate hikes, which are now clearer than ever, are pulling demand forward, among other factors.

[wisdom]

I don't think interest rates are going anywhere with what is happening in Alberta. If job losses continue how can BoC raise rates. I would expect loans to start going bad later this year or early next year - the jobs in the oil fields pay a lot more than jobs elsewhere.

I would not be surprised if we go lower rather than higher.

[Liberty]

I don't think interest rates are going anywhere with what is happening in Alberta. If job losses continue how can BoC raise rates. I would expect loans to start going bad later this year or early next year - the jobs in the oil fields pay a lot more than jobs elsewhere.

I would not be surprised if we go lower rather than higher.

Canada could delay, but it won't have a choice but to follow the US sooner rather than later (as always). Otherwise that'll kill the loonie, and even if the BoC doesn't raise rates immediately, the bond market could anticipate it, affecting mortgages.

Personally, I'd love it if the BoC went the opposite direction from the Fed and the CAD went down to 0.50 or something, because most of my assets are in USD and my costs in CAD, but I doubt that'll happen.

[gary17]

I don't think interest rates are going anywhere with what is happening in Alberta. If job losses continue how can BoC raise rates. I would expect loans to start going bad later this year or early next year - the jobs in the oil fields pay a lot more than jobs elsewhere.

I would not be surprised if we go lower rather than higher.

Canada could delay, but it won't have a choice but to follow the US sooner rather than later (as always). Otherwise that'll kill the loonie, and even if the BoC doesn't raise rates immediately, the bond market could anticipate it, affecting mortgages.

Personally, I'd love it if the BoC went the opposite direction from the Fed and the CAD went down to 0.50 or something, because most of my assets are in USD and my costs in CAD, but I doubt that'll happen.

i can't wait for that to happen... US - CAD   0.5 !!

[Liberty]

I don't think interest rates are going anywhere with what is happening in Alberta. If job losses continue how can BoC raise rates. I would expect loans to start going bad later this year or early next year - the jobs in the oil fields pay a lot more than jobs elsewhere.

I would not be surprised if we go lower rather than higher.

Canada could delay, but it won't have a choice but to follow the US sooner rather than later (as always). Otherwise that'll kill the loonie, and even if the BoC doesn't raise rates immediately, the bond market could anticipate it, affecting mortgages.

Personally, I'd love it if the BoC went the opposite direction from the Fed and the CAD went down to 0.50 or something, because most of my assets are in USD and my costs in CAD, but I doubt that'll happen.

i can't wait for that to happen... US - CAD   0.5 !!

I just drooled a little 

[Otsog]

Can the BoC raise rates?

I bet the BoC/CMHC/Feds are in a constant panic. There must be regular internal reports like "if interest rates go up 1%, 2 million Canadians will lose their homes".

[alertmeipp]

We're in Bradford, Ontario which is 45 minutes North of Toronto..................2.5 hours during evening rush. 

We're in a newer (4 year old) home. A few homes were up for sale last summer and into fall and sat on the market with little interest. These same homes went back on the market in the spring and all 4 have sold for more than the previous list price and within a week.

Our next door neighbour listed last spring for $549 and had little interest and a couple of "low" offers.
They listed again and sold the morning the listing hit the market. (obviously his listing agent already had a buyer lined up). He sold for $629 and had multiple offers. One was significantly higher but came with a phone book of conditions, so they knew to pass to save lots of frustration.

Another house friends lived in and sold 2 years ago for $469 recently sold for $619. This is the same model of home we're in and the new model from the builder is listed for $505.

The market is hot everywhere apparently.

Wow, I didn't really the madness goes all the way up there. Any idea who are those buyers (local or from oversea)?

[alertmeipp]

Can the BoC raise rates?

I bet the BoC/CMHC/Feds are in a constant panic. There must be regular internal reports like "if interest rates go up 1%, 2 million Canadians will lose their homes".

Yes, it will be ugly. Many of the high end homes were purchased by the riches.. so those might be ok.

But many of the smaller houses are owned by normal families with big mortgages.

But I am in the camp that BoC won't raise rate even if US does. They just can't.