Author Topic: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada  (Read 510961 times)

alertmeipp

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #520 on: June 19, 2015, 10:13:41 AM »
Wow, I didn't really the madness goes all the way up there. Any idea who are those buyers (local or from oversea)?
We're the next best option for those moving out of the city. When the developer opened about 7 years ago, most were from Woodbridge, Mississauga, Richmond Hill and Newmarket.
Five minutes to the 400, 20 minutes to Barrie, 10 minutes to Newmarket and we have a GO station.

I'm not sure the demographics of the resale buyers. So far the house across the street was bought by an Asian couple with no kids. They look to be our age (late 30's), both drive Mercedes and they spent a month renovating before they moved in. They renovated a new house, yes.
Same with our friends house up the street, same scenario but his family has young kids.

The demographic for Bradford was predominantly white with a fairly large Portuguese population and Italian when the new homes started.
The last couple of years Bradford looks more like a typical GTA town, more diverse.
Those that are leaving Bradford from our neighbourhood seem to be cashing in and moving further North. Innisfil, Barrie etc.

We bought in 2011 for $349 and as of last January when new phases were released, our model is up to $505. Our next door neighbour who just sold for $629 paid $369 in 2011.
Yes, in Bradford, Ontario.  :o

In a town that had 18000 before the developers showed up will have added something like 3000 homes in 8 years. Our developer is closing in 3 years and will have built 1200 homes in 10 years.

Edited to actually answer your question  ;D
They all seem like they've just moved from elsewhere in the GTA. Some neighbours I spoke to that moved from Woodbridge etc have done this before. Buy a new home before the ground has broken, live there a couple of years rinse, repeat a bit further North.
I'm pretty sure the diversity in our town now is just people moving from the GTA rather than completely new Canadians or investors.

I know a handful of acquitances that have bought in Bradford with the sole intention of buying pre-construction, adding cosmetic touches only to flip it a few months to a year later.  They think it's guaranteed money with zero risk and so far they've been spot on.

Same here. More than a few actually, more than pocket money. Some of those are retired ppl with deep pocket, some are working class ppl.

I am sure when I get in, it will burst.



Yours Truly

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #521 on: June 19, 2015, 10:22:12 AM »
Wow, I didn't really the madness goes all the way up there. Any idea who are those buyers (local or from oversea)?
We're the next best option for those moving out of the city. When the developer opened about 7 years ago, most were from Woodbridge, Mississauga, Richmond Hill and Newmarket.
Five minutes to the 400, 20 minutes to Barrie, 10 minutes to Newmarket and we have a GO station.

I'm not sure the demographics of the resale buyers. So far the house across the street was bought by an Asian couple with no kids. They look to be our age (late 30's), both drive Mercedes and they spent a month renovating before they moved in. They renovated a new house, yes.
Same with our friends house up the street, same scenario but his family has young kids.

The demographic for Bradford was predominantly white with a fairly large Portuguese population and Italian when the new homes started.
The last couple of years Bradford looks more like a typical GTA town, more diverse.
Those that are leaving Bradford from our neighbourhood seem to be cashing in and moving further North. Innisfil, Barrie etc.

We bought in 2011 for $349 and as of last January when new phases were released, our model is up to $505. Our next door neighbour who just sold for $629 paid $369 in 2011.
Yes, in Bradford, Ontario.  :o

In a town that had 18000 before the developers showed up will have added something like 3000 homes in 8 years. Our developer is closing in 3 years and will have built 1200 homes in 10 years.

Edited to actually answer your question  ;D
They all seem like they've just moved from elsewhere in the GTA. Some neighbours I spoke to that moved from Woodbridge etc have done this before. Buy a new home before the ground has broken, live there a couple of years rinse, repeat a bit further North.
I'm pretty sure the diversity in our town now is just people moving from the GTA rather than completely new Canadians or investors.

I know a handful of acquitances that have bought in Bradford with the sole intention of buying pre-construction, adding cosmetic touches only to flip it a few months to a year later.  They think it's guaranteed money with zero risk and so far they've been spot on.

Same here. More than a few actually, more than pocket money. Some of those are retired ppl with deep pocket, some are working class ppl.

I am sure when I get in, it will burst.

LOL, why buy stocks when you are almost guaranteed large returns on a pre-construction homes? all you need to do is line-up on the first day when the sales office opens!!

wisdom

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #522 on: June 19, 2015, 10:36:31 AM »
In Vancouver the reason is because it has been in the top 3 places to live in the world according to one survey. Thus, everyone here believes that you do not need to be able to afford the mortgage, all that matters is that everyone around the world will move here and pay any price. You do not need jobs, just be rated the best place to live.

Meanwhile, this Ipsos Reid survey was released yesterday. 40% of people living in Vancouver want to leave - most common reason - high cost of living.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouverites+feel+priced+town/11146479/story.html

Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #523 on: June 19, 2015, 10:41:51 AM »
Liberty while it will not be ever, it could be a while before rates go up.

Think about this -
1) unless commodities bounce back - just had a 15 year run
2) housing continues booming - has been booming for 15 years
3) manufacturing comes back - it will take time before manufcturing starts coming back.

Where do blue collared workers who lose jobs in the resource field get jobs that pay as much.

At the sametime, we have the highest debt loads in recorded history. The only way they can counter it is by having the loonie at a low level v USD. Beggar thy neighbor.

At this point I don't know how to think about it because if the loonie drops too much that could lead to inflation and thus, higher interest rates.

The authorities have chosen to be risk averse and take the easier route in the last 20 odd years, so I expect them to choose lower rates rather than have the population deal with the pain of defaults and higher interest rates.

While I say this, I realize these things are impossible to predict.

EDIT:
I was reading an article about those big yellow trucks at mining sites. The drivers are paid $200,000 a year. And a lot of companies are in the process of buying self driving trucks over the next 5 odd years. No one is going to pay a truck driver $200,000 anywhere else.

But the CAD has already fallen 20-25% from its recent plateau, and even more from its recent peak. At a certain point, imports just cost too much, and we're importing a lot of stuff, while many of our exports are priced in USD anyway (oil, metals, etc). If the fed increases rates 2-3 times and the BoC keeps them where they are each time, the CAD will get slaughtered.

I'm no expert on this stuff, but the way I think about it, there's a range within which the CAD is fairly neutral on housing. It's basically kicking the can down the road, not solving anyone's problems but not making them worse. And then out of this range higher or lower, it's bad for housing.

If the CAD goes back up too high, this hurts manufacturing and means fewer foreign investments into natural resources and such, which is bad for housing when people lose their jobs and big projects don't get built.

If the CAD goes too low, then imports start costing a lot, the cost of what people buy in stores goes up, and that hurts housing directly since people have so little money to spare thanks to their bloated housing costs, they're already tapped out. In other words, if the CAD goes to 0.50 USD, suddenly everybody's food, vehicles and gasoline, electronics, consumer products, etc goes up a lot, and that'll squeeze a lot of people out of their houses that are already twice as expensive as the equivalent US house...
« Last Edit: June 19, 2015, 10:58:30 AM by Liberty »
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augustabound

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #524 on: June 19, 2015, 12:07:28 PM »
Same here. More than a few actually, more than pocket money. Some of those are retired ppl with deep pocket, some are working class ppl.

I am sure when I get in, it will burst.

LOL, why buy stocks when you are almost guaranteed large returns on a pre-construction homes? all you need to do is line-up on the first day when the sales office opens!!

The Aurora sites all start in the $700k, there's 3 new ones.

I knew of the people buying pre-construction but these people buying 3-4 year old homes are putting $10's of thousands and one home had about $100k put in after the people bought.

We're looking to go back to Newmarket in the old downtown area. Century homes with lots of tree lined streets and people take care of their property. We miss it, a lot.
We're tempted to list our place since all the homes here are selling for prices we thing are insane and selling quickly. 

But right now, we're just not ready.
"Serenity now, insanity later." - Lloyd Braun

alertmeipp

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #525 on: June 19, 2015, 12:34:30 PM »
Same here. More than a few actually, more than pocket money. Some of those are retired ppl with deep pocket, some are working class ppl.

I am sure when I get in, it will burst.

LOL, why buy stocks when you are almost guaranteed large returns on a pre-construction homes? all you need to do is line-up on the first day when the sales office opens!!

The Aurora sites all start in the $700k, there's 3 new ones.

I knew of the people buying pre-construction but these people buying 3-4 year old homes are putting $10's of thousands and one home had about $100k put in after the people bought.

We're looking to go back to Newmarket in the old downtown area. Century homes with lots of tree lined streets and people take care of their property. We miss it, a lot.
We're tempted to list our place since all the homes here are selling for prices we thing are insane and selling quickly. 

But right now, we're just not ready.


There are many home owners I know of thinking of cashing in. But then the hard question comes, where to go? 
I know a family was thinking to move to Montreal as their son going to McGill there (very cheap tuition there btw), they sold their house early last year to get ready. Things change and they end up need to pay 15%+ more to get back a similar house in a not as good neighborhood.

Pure madness, but I wish I have get in when I moved here few years ago.

Hielko

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #526 on: June 19, 2015, 12:54:19 PM »
Why not rent instead of buying back? Seems that it is pretty cheap based on this thread.

alertmeipp

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #527 on: June 19, 2015, 01:10:43 PM »
Why not rent instead of buying back? Seems that it is pretty cheap based on this thread.

Not idea, but probably afraid it will go up further.

wisdom

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #528 on: June 19, 2015, 01:26:05 PM »
The way I see it, the owners are subsidizing renters. I like to be the one who receives the subisdies rather than the one subsidizing others. If you factor in maintenance and vacancy on top of other costs, I think the returns are negative in a lot of cases.

Similar to Sir Templeton - make money by helping others - buy when they want to sell and sell when they want to buy. I see the subsidy the same way. I will buy when renters again start subsidizing home owners.

Yes, I am not seeing the gain in networth that the owners are because of leverage. But, I think of that as speculation as I cannot count on the gains and I am not smart enough to get out in time. Those leveraged gains on inflated assets dissappeared awfully fast in the US and some European countries.

BTW - nothing stopping us from investing those savings into other assets.

gary17

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #529 on: June 19, 2015, 01:57:55 PM »
keep in mind those leveraged gains are all tax free

if one can make $500K flipping a house in 2 years that's about 1M pre-tax income or about 10 years worth of salary for a 'high income' job.  I can see why people take this risk.