Author Topic: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada  (Read 512409 times)

gary17

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #730 on: March 18, 2016, 11:06:49 AM »
The only people buying are speculators, developers and people buying their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th..20th rental property. A newcomer cannot enter the market. Everyone refinances and buys more properties and flips them which increases prices allowing them to again refinance and buy more properties.

An average person is buying condos or houses 1.5 hours away from the city - this is in a city of 2.5 mil or 1/4th of the cities Vancouver is being compared to.

Obviously none of this makes sense to me, but, it does to most others.

Liberty & Wisdom
are you guys from Vancouver?
I think most of these purchases are just ordinary people looking to grow the family - 
we have a few luxury real estates sold to Chinese newcomers - ($3 ~ 10M)
baby boomers are therefore cashing out to find a cheaper place - such as a large condo or a house outside of Metro Vancouver (~ 1.5M); keep the change for travelling / medical needs (~1M) and anything left goes towards helping the kids to buy their first house (~0.5 ~ 1M).

The kids who got help can buy a $1.5M ~ 2M house with parent's downpayment, savings, and a $800K mortgage?






wisdom

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #731 on: March 18, 2016, 11:24:34 AM »
Gary - how large is your sample? Are you in the industry?

gary17

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #732 on: March 18, 2016, 11:35:58 AM »
Gary - how large is your sample? Are you in the industry?

Sort of in the industry -

We are actively in the market looking and making low ball offers lol

gary17

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #733 on: March 18, 2016, 11:40:24 AM »
Also - most of the prices appreciation that's gone up is since last summer (2015 April) - I believe since then there's max 30 year amortization; and 10% down payment for homes over $700K -    (i don't think there's any house under $700K in metro vancouver).


bbarberayr

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #734 on: March 18, 2016, 11:51:40 AM »
Don't kid yourself, New York has had tough times in the past:

http://9640-presscdn-0-28.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Manhattan-Real-Estate-Roaring-20s-and-Great-Depression.png

http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/new_york.html

I couldn't find a chart for the 1960's to early 1970's, but that was a tough time too when NYC almost went bankrupt.

wisdom

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #735 on: March 18, 2016, 12:00:50 PM »
True, you would have to go into the Valley to find something decent around $700k. Most decent places as far as Langley will be in around a mil.

From what I know the market went absolutely nuts in the fall and is accelerating.

I am not saying families don't bid, just that you are competing with others who are not long term or end users.

Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #736 on: March 18, 2016, 12:19:21 PM »
BC's saving rate is interesting:

Quote
British Columbia’s household saving rate (saving as a percent of household disposable income)fell back into negative territory in 2014 (-1.9%), after climbing to 0.4% in 2013. British Columbia’s saving rate has been negative in all but one year since 1996, making it the only province that has persistently had a negative saving rate during this period, although other provinces such as Nova Scotia (-4.0%), P.E.I. (-1.5%) and New Brunswick (-0.9%) have also seen negative saving rates during some of this period.

Between 1999 and 2010, BC's average saving rate has been -4.2%:



I suppose that they can keep putting everything on their HELOCs forever...

I'm sure incomes are really high to be able to afford these million-dollar bungalows. Let's see:

Quote
At $48,048, real per capita GDP in British Columbia remained below the national average ($49,171) [...] Real per capita household disposable income in the province was $28,809 in 2014, up from $28,797 in the previous year. This was the second-highest per capita income in the country, after Alberta ($36,714).

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Publications/Infoline/15-11-10/Issue_15-74.aspx
« Last Edit: March 18, 2016, 12:24:14 PM by Liberty »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

gary17

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #737 on: March 18, 2016, 12:22:28 PM »

Quote
At $48,048, real per capita GDP in British Columbia remained below the national average ($49,171) [...] Real per capita household disposable income in the province was $28,809 in 2014, up from $28,797 in the previous year. This was the second-highest per capita income in the country, after Alberta ($36,714).

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Publications/Infoline/15-11-10/Issue_15-74.aspx
[/quote]

Most foreigners have no income in BC or Canada - yet they are minting well over $500K at 15% tax rate in Asia.

Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #738 on: March 18, 2016, 12:27:29 PM »
Most foreigners have no income in BC or Canada - yet they are minting well over $500K at 15% tax rate in Asia.

Source?
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

gary17

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #739 on: March 18, 2016, 12:39:54 PM »
Most foreigners have no income in BC or Canada - yet they are minting well over $500K at 15% tax rate in Asia.

Source?

don't need one - just look around in my own family, their friends, high school friends, university classmates and you can confirm what everybody knows here.

mom and dad are in a group of oversea chinese -  there are a few exceptions but most are extremely wealthy.  we are the poor ones...

i don't see asian taxi drivers , do you?