Author Topic: Cryptocurrencies  (Read 192925 times)

Jurgis

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #940 on: March 09, 2020, 10:00:19 AM »
It seems that when the shit _really_ hits the fan preppers still prefer gold over virtual coins .. Gold up ~7% the last month, bitcoin down ~22%. Though I have to admit I didn't look at Ripple. Maybe that's the best coin to store wealth. Heard good things about NEM too. Down 33% the last few weeks so there should be a significant margin of safety now given their Catapult roadmap.

Are you suggesting that digital "coins" whose only real use cases are money laundering, illegal gambling, and buying narcotics are not safe stores of value? That's an outrageous suggestion, and you should apologize to all the hodl-ers with due haste!

He already did.

See his signature.
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clutch

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #941 on: March 12, 2020, 02:38:41 PM »
Yup, the gold thesis is wrong. :(

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #942 on: March 12, 2020, 06:54:29 PM »
Bitcoin down bigly over the last two days while markets rumble on Coronavirus concerns.

10-year treasuries hitting all time lows and, while down today, GLD is up over the two day period so far.

Still don't think Bitcoin behaves like other safe-havens and shouldn't be considered one.

And once again....Bitcoin down 43% over the last 24 hours. This is NOT a safe haven asset.


Mark Jr.

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #943 on: June 24, 2020, 11:22:47 AM »
Bitcoin down bigly over the last two days while markets rumble on Coronavirus concerns.

10-year treasuries hitting all time lows and, while down today, GLD is up over the two day period so far.

Still don't think Bitcoin behaves like other safe-havens and shouldn't be considered one.

And once again....Bitcoin down 43% over the last 24 hours. This is NOT a safe haven asset.

Itís volatile to be sure. For a new asset class that has only existed for a few years, itís to be expected. Still, up over 33% since this last comment. What Iím really interested in seeing is  how it performs once the wealth taxes, capital controls and bail-ins start happening.

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #944 on: June 24, 2020, 01:36:43 PM »

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #945 on: June 24, 2020, 02:36:00 PM »
Bitcoin down bigly over the last two days while markets rumble on Coronavirus concerns.

10-year treasuries hitting all time lows and, while down today, GLD is up over the two day period so far.

Still don't think Bitcoin behaves like other safe-havens and shouldn't be considered one.

And once again....Bitcoin down 43% over the last 24 hours. This is NOT a safe haven asset.

Itís volatile to be sure. For a new asset class that has only existed for a few years, itís to be expected. Still, up over 33% since this last comment. What Iím really interested in seeing is  how it performs once the wealth taxes, capital controls and bail-ins start happening.

No doubt. To be clear - I own it. I'm not detracting from Bitcoin ownership at all. Just cautioning that it is NOT a safe-haven asset and juxtaposing it's performance against other "safe-haven" or "crisis-hedge" type assets.  If you own this going into a crisis and you're in for a wild-ride like the 50% price dump we saw over-night in March. Safe haven's don't do that.

Best case scenario is that it has zero correlation to stocks. Most likely case is that it is slightly correlated to stocks because it is a risk-based asset class for those seeking risk exposure.

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #946 on: June 24, 2020, 02:53:24 PM »
Bitcoin down bigly over the last two days while markets rumble on Coronavirus concerns.

10-year treasuries hitting all time lows and, while down today, GLD is up over the two day period so far.

Still don't think Bitcoin behaves like other safe-havens and shouldn't be considered one.

And once again....Bitcoin down 43% over the last 24 hours. This is NOT a safe haven asset.

Itís volatile to be sure. For a new asset class that has only existed for a few years, itís to be expected. Still, up over 33% since this last comment. What Iím really interested in seeing is  how it performs once the wealth taxes, capital controls and bail-ins start happening.

No doubt. To be clear - I own it. I'm not detracting from Bitcoin ownership at all. Just cautioning that it is NOT a safe-haven asset and juxtaposing it's performance against other "safe-haven" or "crisis-hedge" type assets.  If you own this going into a crisis and you're in for a wild-ride like the 50% price dump we saw over-night in March. Safe haven's don't do that.

Best case scenario is that it has zero correlation to stocks. Most likely case is that it is slightly correlated to stocks because it is a risk-based asset class for those seeking risk exposure.

Think of 'safe haven' - as Long Bitcoin PLUS Long Bitcoin Put.
Every time it drops radically sell the put, buy it back on the bounce, keep the cash difference. Volatility is your friend  ;)
Just keep in mind that Bitcoin options are NOT a deep market. Same thing, but on the major indexes, is a lot safer.

SD
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 02:56:26 PM by SharperDingaan »

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #947 on: June 24, 2020, 03:02:55 PM »
Bitcoin down bigly over the last two days while markets rumble on Coronavirus concerns.

10-year treasuries hitting all time lows and, while down today, GLD is up over the two day period so far.

Still don't think Bitcoin behaves like other safe-havens and shouldn't be considered one.

And once again....Bitcoin down 43% over the last 24 hours. This is NOT a safe haven asset.

Itís volatile to be sure. For a new asset class that has only existed for a few years, itís to be expected. Still, up over 33% since this last comment. What Iím really interested in seeing is  how it performs once the wealth taxes, capital controls and bail-ins start happening.

No doubt. To be clear - I own it. I'm not detracting from Bitcoin ownership at all. Just cautioning that it is NOT a safe-haven asset and juxtaposing it's performance against other "safe-haven" or "crisis-hedge" type assets.  If you own this going into a crisis and you're in for a wild-ride like the 50% price dump we saw over-night in March. Safe haven's don't do that.

Best case scenario is that it has zero correlation to stocks. Most likely case is that it is slightly correlated to stocks because it is a risk-based asset class for those seeking risk exposure.

Think of 'safe haven' - as Long Bitcoin PLUS Long Bitcoin Put.
Every time it drops radically sell the put, buy it back on the bounce, keep the cash difference. Volatility is your friend  ;)
Just keep in mind that Bitcoin options are NOT a deep market. Same thing, but on the major indexes, is a lot safer.

SD

You can do this with any asset including an equity. The existence of protective puts does not make it a safe haven. It's just a trade of decreasing risk for decreasing return.

Anyways, I'm sure this debate is useless. Those who believe it's a crisis hedge can buy it and ride the vicissitudes of +/- 30-50% swings if they so choose.

I'm just not disillusioned into believing this is a replacement for traditional safe haven assets and did not want others to be confused into thinking but was.

For a longer term perspective - gold is near all time highs. Treasuries are near all time highs. Bitcoin needs more than a 100% return to get to all time highs. There's obviously something very different about its behavior compared to other traditional safe-havens.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 03:05:11 PM by TwoCitiesCapital »

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #948 on: June 24, 2020, 04:27:17 PM »
Agreed, Bitcoin is not what most would consider a safe haven. However, if you are willing to continuously hedge via puts, you ARE protected against price decline during the life of the puts - as you would be in any market. Comes down to the reason for the Bitcoin, and whether the holding is temporary or not.

More relevant, is that people are slowly realizing that widespread QE means widespread FX devaluation. Not noticeable if relative to each other, the other major currencies devalue at about the same rate. But much more noticeable if ONE of the currencies (gold) is devaluing at a slower rate (additional net supply of gold/year). The slower depreciating currency appreciates.

SD

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #949 on: July 03, 2020, 05:17:51 PM »
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-price-correlation-with-sp-500-hits-record-highs

Record correlation with S&P 500 at the current time. Obviously a changing relationship, but just another bullet in the "not a safe haven" column.