Author Topic: Vaccine is here  (Read 3849 times)

Liberty

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2020, 09:52:47 AM »


boilermaker75

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2020, 10:06:44 AM »
Anyone have the cajones to lever up at this point?

I've essentially been fully invested, but have continuously written puts. So if I get put to on everything outstanding I would be about 5% on margin. Unlikely, most of my put positions are now well out-of-the money. (Nov 13, 200-strike BRKB puts, Dec 18 190-strike BRKB puts, Nov 13, 22-strike WFC puts, Dec 18, 42.5-strike KO puts, etc.)

kab60

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #32 on: November 09, 2020, 10:11:30 AM »
Anyone have the cajones to lever up at this point?
Only smallish, was 120 pct long Friday, added some more today. But I have 40 pct between Berkshire and Altria and mostly dabble in boring GARPy stocks with good balance sheets and no companies with both financial and operating leverage, so less agressive than it might sound.

What are everyones favorite picks here? I bought a chunk Park Aerospace because I like the LT story, but lots of cash on BS so not all that beaten up. RE still looks cheapish, just don't like financial and operating leverage combined, but also that is a winner here.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2020, 10:24:27 AM by kab60 »

Spekulatius

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #33 on: November 09, 2020, 10:14:50 AM »
the real news is not that we have a vaccine, it is the high efficacy (90% indicated). A vaccine that with only 50% efficacy is not a game changer, one with 90% is.

I do agree it doesn't really change anything for the next few month, but it does indicate the light at the end of the tunnel. Now I would like to hear how the vaccine rollout is going to be handled, because handling the logistics well is crucial.

An now it's even more important to contain the spread as well as possible so we don't have another 200k dead before this vaccine is available.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2020, 03:59:30 PM by Spekulatius »
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Read the Footnotes

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #34 on: November 09, 2020, 10:24:20 AM »

 Did a bit more reading and yeah only 50M doses estimated to be available by the year end enough for 25M people and that has to be divided between the US, the UK, Canada, Japan and the EU.
So it probably doesn't spare us from the possibility of rolling lockdowns through to the spring and you are right it could take some time to build out supply chains to handle the challenges of mass distribution. So the original timeline of mass distribution by summer 2021 might still be the most realistic outcome.

Nice job, Mattee, of taking the time to point out some reality in your multiple posts on the subject.

The truth is that Mattee's posts may only scratch the surface of how much some enthusiastic people may be overestimating the speed of distribution especially if you are talking about the amount of time for the body to acclimate after a second dose, we are talking a minimum of a month from first dose to second dose and then more time for your body to adapt after the second dose.

It's good news, but it doesn't really change the optimistic schedule and we will all be wearing face masks in the mean time.

If this is a positive harbinger for other candidates, some of which are much cheaper and with easier distribution, then multiple competing approved vaccines would start to chip away much more rapidly, but again many people have been counting on that outcome, so to some extent it is baked in to very optimistic expectations.

cherzeca

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #35 on: November 09, 2020, 10:37:37 AM »

 Did a bit more reading and yeah only 50M doses estimated to be available by the year end enough for 25M people and that has to be divided between the US, the UK, Canada, Japan and the EU.
So it probably doesn't spare us from the possibility of rolling lockdowns through to the spring and you are right it could take some time to build out supply chains to handle the challenges of mass distribution. So the original timeline of mass distribution by summer 2021 might still be the most realistic outcome.

is the bottleneck of the supply chain safe distribution (chillers etc) or fabrication (actual biochemical work) ? in other words, can many additional biolabs be recruited to increase supply?  I am almost thinking of biden using extraordinary measures (which I imagine he would be happy to do) to mobilize production and not just logistics...

rb

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2020, 10:44:08 AM »

 Did a bit more reading and yeah only 50M doses estimated to be available by the year end enough for 25M people and that has to be divided between the US, the UK, Canada, Japan and the EU.
So it probably doesn't spare us from the possibility of rolling lockdowns through to the spring and you are right it could take some time to build out supply chains to handle the challenges of mass distribution. So the original timeline of mass distribution by summer 2021 might still be the most realistic outcome.

is the bottleneck of the supply chain safe distribution (chillers etc) or fabrication (actual biochemical work) ? in other words, can many additional biolabs be recruited to increase supply?  I am almost thinking of biden using extraordinary measures (which I imagine he would be happy to do) to mobilize production and not just logistics...
I'm sure that at this point it is already assumed that other biolabs etc are gonna help with production. But you are going to run into those bottlenecks. If this thing needs to be stored/transported at -80 C there's some really specialized equipment involved and it's not cheap either.

james22

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2020, 10:48:37 AM »
I actually really like BRK here. Between the buybacks and the expertise wrt to financial and energy, that's probably one of the safest ways to play those spaces, albeit in a big vagina kind of way.

That's my thinking (BAM too). Added today.
BRK, BAM l SV, EM l Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac l Cash

BG2008

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2020, 11:41:24 AM »
Pupil,

Great point.  But wuss for trimming.  JK

33% in urban RE to 30%.

2020 would have been better for me if Iíd been more of a wuss and managed risk/concentration better. Thatís why the name isnít theMaster.

Gregmal, I sold all my JBGS today....then bought it all again...tax gain harvest, same with berkshire.

You didn't ask.  But I am at 50% RE (urban and non-urban) and added today

Cardboard

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #39 on: November 20, 2020, 04:03:35 AM »
Pfizer and BioNTech to request emergency authorization from FDA for Covid-19 vaccine
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/covid-19-vaccine-pfizer-will-apply-for-fda-emergency-use-authorization.html

If you have not finished your basement by now you should start to think of speeding things up!!!

Cardboard