Author Topic: How to prepare for Coronavirus  (Read 2454 times)

Schwab711

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Re: How to prepare for Coronavirus
« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2020, 07:37:15 AM »
New model published in Lancet ID based on China, Diamond princess and those who came out of China to the rest of the world, revising fatality rates down. Attached fatality rates table by age groups.  See Table 1 for fatality rates and Table 3 for projected hospitalization rates by age group (does not go deeper into those with high risk conditions). Time will tell!

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930243-7

A state by state healthcare system and population based projection here from IHMI:
It models the burden on hospital resources and deaths for the US and for each state.  NY is predicted to peak on 6 April, and the US as a whole in mid-April.  Although there are wide confidence intervals, the number are sobering.  They predict about 80K deaths.
 
The IHME has been the lead on the global burden of disease study the definitive ongoing study of disease burden (mortality & disability) for more than 350 diseases and 84 risk factors in 195 countries (https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/).
 
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Thanks for posting this!


Dalal.Holdings

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Re: How to prepare for Coronavirus
« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2020, 11:21:07 AM »
My recommendations would be as follows (if not infected or if infected). If you are infected with URI symptoms, remember the goal is to prevent spread to your lungs (i.e. a lower respiratory tract infection). If you keep it as URI (in your nose, throat/pharynx), over time you will build antibodies (IgG in particular) to defend your whole body including lungs. Stop spread to the lungs however you can/optimize defenses by:

1) Humidify indoor spaces: mucociliary clearance (MCC) is the lung's primary innate defense mechanism (innate immunity, does not require prior exposure to a pathogen). Patients with impaired MCC (cystic fibrosis) are prone to frequent pneumonia. Studies show MCC is optimized at 100% relative humidity, adequate hydration, and avoiding cold temps (Pubmed ID: 27864314, https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Mechanisms-involved-in-respiratory-epithelial-innate-immunity-Inhaled-pathogens-such-as_fig1_304577962, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25361567)

2) Maintain hydration. If dehydrated, hydrate with fluids consistent with oral rehydration therapy (water + some sugar + salts) which allows H2O to be absorbed optimally via osmosis in GI tract. This keeps your airways moist, optimizes MCC, and increases mucous layer on respiratory epithelium (PCL) which prevents viral attachment and allows for clearance (Pubmed ID: 27864314)

3) Avoid cold temps (MCC/beating of the cilia is optimized when you are at core body temp/you don't breathe in super cold air) (Pubmed ID: 27864314)

4) Vitamin D at least 2000 IU a day has been shown to reduce URI frequency/severity, particularly in those who are Vitamin D deficient (increased deficiency in low sunlight places) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3543548/)

5) Avoid close contacts (there may be a correlation to viral load and disease severity, but a lot of uncertainty at this point)

6) Light/moderate exercises (only if you are not sick, can help overall immune function)

7) Daily multi vitamin, fruits/vegetables


Obviously some of these depend on if there is no contraindication in the individual/underlying conditions that would preclude doing these
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 11:31:05 AM by Dalal.Holdings »
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LongHaul

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Re: How to prepare for Coronavirus
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2020, 11:57:57 AM »
My recommendations would be as follows (if not infected or if infected). If you are infected with URI symptoms, remember the goal is to prevent spread to your lungs (i.e. a lower respiratory tract infection). If you keep it as URI (in your nose, throat/pharynx), over time you will build antibodies (IgG in particular) to defend your whole body including lungs. Stop spread to the lungs however you can/optimize defenses by:

1) Humidify indoor spaces: mucociliary clearance (MCC) is the lung's primary innate defense mechanism (innate immunity, does not require prior exposure to a pathogen). Patients with impaired MCC (cystic fibrosis) are prone to frequent pneumonia. Studies show MCC is optimized at 100% relative humidity, adequate hydration, and avoiding cold temps (Pubmed ID: 27864314, https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Mechanisms-involved-in-respiratory-epithelial-innate-immunity-Inhaled-pathogens-such-as_fig1_304577962, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25361567)

2) Maintain hydration. If dehydrated, hydrate with fluids consistent with oral rehydration therapy (water + some sugar + salts) which allows H2O to be absorbed optimally via osmosis in GI tract. This keeps your airways moist, optimizes MCC, and increases mucous layer on respiratory epithelium (PCL) which prevents viral attachment and allows for clearance (Pubmed ID: 27864314)

3) Avoid cold temps (MCC/beating of the cilia is optimized when you are at core body temp/you don't breathe in super cold air) (Pubmed ID: 27864314)

4) Vitamin D at least 2000 IU a day has been shown to reduce URI frequency/severity, particularly in those who are Vitamin D deficient (increased deficiency in low sunlight places) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3543548/)

5) Avoid close contacts (there may be a correlation to viral load and disease severity, but a lot of uncertainty at this point)

6) Light/moderate exercises (only if you are not sick, can help overall immune function)

7) Daily multi vitamin, fruits/vegetables


Obviously some of these depend on if there is no contraindication in the individual/underlying conditions that would preclude doing these

Very helpful.  Thanks Doc!

Jurgis

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Re: How to prepare for Coronavirus
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2020, 12:06:09 PM »
3) Avoid cold temps (MCC/beating of the cilia is optimized when you are at core body temp/you don't breathe in super cold air) (Pubmed ID: 27864314)

OT.

Ahh, so this might be an explanation for a belief that you get cold/flu/pneumonia from being cold (or in the cold). It's just the MCC - and maybe some other parts of immune system? - work worse when a person is cold (is outside in the cold), so they are more likely to get infected?

Thanks for insight.
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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: How to prepare for Coronavirus
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2020, 12:14:52 PM »
3) Avoid cold temps (MCC/beating of the cilia is optimized when you are at core body temp/you don't breathe in super cold air) (Pubmed ID: 27864314)

OT.

Ahh, so this might be an explanation for a belief that you get cold/flu/pneumonia from being cold (or in the cold). It's just the MCC - and maybe some other parts of immune system? - work worse when a person is cold (is outside in the cold), so they are more likely to get infected?

Thanks for insight.

Most definitely. And remember--cold air is also drier (less humid), so it may dry out mucous lining in airways as you breathe it in (esp if you are a mouth breather vs nose breather) which impairs MCC/allows viruses to attach and gain entry into cells. Studies also show respiratory droplets (containing influenza for example) travel shorter distances in humid air vs dry air which may explain why Flu is seasonal towards cold/dry seasons (https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692).

As COVID also spreads via respiratory droplets, humidifying indoors spaces and maintaining warmer temps is a low risk, potentially high reward action you can take to protect yourself.

Quote
Influenza virus transmission is dependent on humidity and temperature.Using the then newly developed guinea pig model of influenza virus transmission (4), we tested directly the impact of ambient temperature and relative humidity (RH) on the efficiency of viral spread between hosts. When inoculated and exposed guinea pigs were housed in separate cages, transmission was found to be dependent on both temperature and RH (5, 6). Transmission was highly efficient at 5C but was blocked or inefficient at 30C. Dry conditions (20% and 35% RH) were also found to be more favorable for spread than either intermediate (50% RH) or humid (80% RH) conditions (Fig. 1A). These results were obtained initially using a seasonal human strain, A/Panama/2007/1999 (H3N2), and were subsequently confirmed with a 2009 pandemic isolate, A/Netherlands/602/2009 (H1N1). Transmission at low (5C) versus intermediate (20C) temperatures was also tested with two influenza B viruses and found to be more efficient under colder conditions (7). Thus, transmission of human influenza viruses by a respiratory droplet or aerosol route in the guinea pig model proceeds most readily under cold, dry conditions.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 12:19:21 PM by Dalal.Holdings »
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LC

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Re: How to prepare for Coronavirus
« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2020, 12:19:25 PM »
Drink warm/hot liquids (tea, honey, maybe a pinch of salt!)
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Spekulatius

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Re: How to prepare for Coronavirus
« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2020, 03:46:17 PM »
I know Dalal.Holdings  mentioned this before, but there is more and more evidence that Vitamin D is protecting against COVID-19 or at least the severe progression:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-study-claims-vitamin-d-deficiency-may-impact-coronavirus-mortality-rates-2020-05-08

Anyways, cheap insurance with very little downside if it doesnt work. So take in some sun when you can or some Vitamin D gel tablets.
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Spekulatius

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Re: How to prepare for Coronavirus
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2020, 02:51:45 PM »
Risk know them - avoid them seems like a good
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

It’s quite shocking to read the case studies about how one person in a choir could infect many people in the church after a couple hours of exposure for example.
On the other hand the risk to contract COVID outdoors seems to be vastly overrated, so politicians really should open parks and beaches.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 03:33:55 PM by Spekulatius »
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