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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: cherzeca on January 06, 2020, 12:31:08 PM

Title: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: cherzeca on January 06, 2020, 12:31:08 PM
I like to find "trends" that have emerged and are already profitable so you are not investing too early, but which appear to have a good bit of expansion runway left in them.  as an example, large financial/money center banks did well last year, and it was my bet at beginning of 2019 that they had become strong as a group ("trend" had emerged) but that they would continue to get stronger.  I was confident enough to play it with FAS, which did very well (and I am still holding much of it since I think there is runway left).

I am looking more for industry sectors than individual names, but feel free.  for example, much of tech seems either too early (for me, a lot of biotech) or not enough runway left (most enterprise software seems pretty priced out).  I am thinking about healthcare, but this is a big industry to grapple with.  TIA
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: cherzeca on January 07, 2020, 03:25:28 PM
also looking at payments/fin tech.

y'all have no industries that you think are mature but still ripe for continued expansion? 
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: gjangal on January 07, 2020, 04:24:36 PM
I would say we are still growing  in all things digital

Digital advertising
Cyber security infrastructure
Online dating
Digital payments ( as you mentioned )
Personal care products in an instagram world
Content creation software
E-commerce
Software is eating the world ( Digitization of industry workflows) . I believe it’s still early days
Cloud computing / infrastructure
Travel and tourism/experiences is still growing
Trend towards urbanization
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Xaston on January 08, 2020, 08:51:40 AM
Video games. 

Everyone under 20 plays video games all the time, boys and girls. 
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 08, 2020, 09:21:53 AM
I would say we are still growing  in all things digital

Digital advertising
Cyber security infrastructure
Online dating
Digital payments ( as you mentioned )
Personal care products in an instagram world
Content creation software
E-commerce
Software is eating the world ( Digitization of industry workflows) . I believe it’s still early days
Cloud computing / infrastructure
Travel and tourism/experiences is still growing
Trend towards urbanization

This is a great list
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 08, 2020, 09:22:52 AM
Baby boomers moving out of their palatial 3,000 to 4,000 sqft homes and electing to live in high end multi-family rentals or condos in city centers with lots of amenities
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 08, 2020, 09:25:15 AM
Consolidation of the US college systems due to failures of smaller liberal arts college
Mental Health as an openly discussed topic even among highly successful individuals
Online learning especially for adults with some college credits (Aspen Group)
Aging in place due to improvement in technology rather than aging in a nursing home of some sort
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Gregmal on January 08, 2020, 09:47:46 AM
IVF
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 08, 2020, 10:05:55 AM
IVF

Yes!!!!  Was just talking about this with my cousin who is considering a career in finance.  I was telling it that it is almost taboo to talk about female fertility due to the PCness.  I told her that if you really want to pursue a career in finance as a woman, you kind of have to be aware of the un-talked about price as something like 70-80% of the female PE executives have children who are autistic.  I was not aware of this until a senior female PE executive told me this.   
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Spekulatius on January 08, 2020, 10:09:46 AM
Tequila (CUERVO.MX)
Artificial body parts and organs
Space Technology
Housing in Texas
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: alpha asset strategies on January 08, 2020, 03:46:08 PM
IVF

Yes!!!!  Was just talking about this with my cousin who is considering a career in finance.  I was telling it that it is almost taboo to talk about female fertility due to the PCness.  I told her that if you really want to pursue a career in finance as a woman, you kind of have to be aware of the un-talked about price as something like 70-80% of the female PE executives have children who are autistic.  I was not aware of this until a senior female PE executive told me this.

@BG2008

"you kind of have to be aware of the un-talked about price as something like 70-80% of the female PE executives have children who are autistic."

This statistic is fascinating to me.  Do you have any sources and / or potential causes of this phenomenon?  Thanks!
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: LC on January 08, 2020, 03:48:20 PM
Old sperm (post 35), old eggs (post 30).

Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Gregmal on January 08, 2020, 04:01:47 PM
Yup, my brothers wife is in her late 20's at EY and its always thought but not loudly spoken how she either won't be able to have a healthy pregnancy or if she does, will have issues. 15 hour work days, eats very little, constant stress/anxiety/deadlines, always traveling... bad recipe.

Separately, IVF is one of the few areas that IMO are immune from the general "attack healthcare" agenda of politicians and insurance companies. Basically, poor people with fertility issues deserve to have babies to is my way to make money off socialism.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: cherzeca on January 08, 2020, 04:02:47 PM
mental health delivery (digital platforms) is not really investable yet to my knowledge except at the VC stage.  see eg Quartet Health https://www.quartethealth.com.

IVF?
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 08, 2020, 04:12:15 PM
Yup, my brothers wife is in her late 20's at EY and its always thought but not loudly spoken how she either won't be able to have a healthy pregnancy or if she does, will have issues. 15 hour work days, eats very little, constant stress/anxiety/deadlines, always traveling... bad recipe.

Separately, IVF is one of the few areas that IMO are immune from the general "attack healthcare" agenda of politicians and insurance companies. Basically, poor people with fertility issues deserve to have babies to is my way to make money off socialism.

She probably works in consulting.  The auditing hours are not as bad unless its beginning of year.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 08, 2020, 04:12:36 PM
Tequila (CUERVO.MX)
Artificial body parts and organs
Space Technology
Housing in Texas

Yeah, I got lots of housing in Texas exposure
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 08, 2020, 04:39:20 PM
Old sperm (post 35), old eggs (post 30).

LC, I believe you are referencing the cause of IVF.  I don't have any back up for that stat.  But it was something that an older successful female PE executive told me.  She has an autistic child and told me that. I have no reason to not believe her.  She mentioned that there is an active network of female PE executives who meet as a support group of a sort to talk about raising autistic children.    In my late 30s, my parents' nagging of me and my siblings to get married and have children early doesn't seem so unreasonable. 
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: LC on January 08, 2020, 04:46:24 PM
Old sperm (post 35), old eggs (post 30).

LC, I believe you are referencing the cause of IVF.  I don't have any back up for that stat.  But it was something that an older successful female PE executive told me.  She has an autistic child and told me that. I have no reason to not believe her.  She mentioned that there is an active network of female PE executives who meet as a support group of a sort to talk about raising autistic children.    In my late 30s, my parents' nagging of me and my siblings to get married and have children early doesn't seem so unreasonable.

These are the contributing factors of autism, as well as a host of other potential problems:

Quote
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/05/190513081409.htm

The study found that men 45 and older can experience decreased fertility and put their partners at risk for increased pregnancy complications such as gestational diabetes, preeclampsia and preterm birth. Infants born to older fathers were found to be at higher risk of premature birth, late still birth, low Apgar scores, low birth weight, higher incidence of newborn seizures and birth defects such as congenital heart disease and cleft palate. As they matured, these children were found to have an increased likelihood of childhood cancers, psychiatric and cognitive disorders, and autism.


Quote
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-link-between-autism-and-older-parents-is-clear-but-the-why-is-not/2017/12/15/dbe03284-dc62-11e7-b859-fb0995360725_story.html

Epidemiologists have gathered data on large numbers of families and calculated how often men of different ages have a child with autism. The first rigorous study of this type, published in 2006, drew on medical records of 132,000 Israeli adolescents. It showed that men in their 30s were 1.6 times as likely to have a child with autism as men younger than 30. Men in their 40s had a sixfold increase in risk.

Any women here will know the dangers of pregnancy as they age. I doubt there's an exact age despite my previous post but the point is the older the worse :(
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 08, 2020, 05:08:54 PM
I can tell you with precision that as you cross over 32, it is starting to look like you may need help.  After 35, you definitely need help if you are not succeeding on your ow.  Over 40, you're almost shit out of luck unless you are a celebrity with access to best healthcare.  But I'll take my odds on 18 years old hormone charged teenager over 40 years platinum celebrity making $30mm a year. 
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: LC on January 08, 2020, 05:10:08 PM
That too.

Back to the topic: anti-aging :D
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 08, 2020, 05:31:22 PM
Yes, Anti Aging will be a big trend
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Cigarbutt on January 08, 2020, 06:19:22 PM
^I agree with IVF.
Interesting tidbit linking autism, IVF and parental age (for those interested).
Risk factors for autism remain largely ill-defined but parental age appears to be a significant factor as similar and significant findings have been replicated in multiple and very well designed studies. Take a look at the following cool 3-D graph coming from a recent study saying the same thing and possibly adding more color and relevant perspective.
https://www.nature.com/articles/mp201570/figures/3
RR is relative risk and is just a way to measure the strength of an association between an exposure (parental age) and an outcome (autism in children).
A proposed theory is that parents (both) would accumulate genetic mutations and then become at risk of transmitting 'deranged' genes. This would make sense for men who are described to produce newer batches of progressively lower sperm count and quality but women's eggs form (all of them) when lying in their mother's uterus and the eggs then simply wait to be called into play. Anyways, other factors may come into play (such as the socio-economic status) and, in a fascinating way, it is thought by many that the thought process should go the other way around and maybe parents holding a certain pool of genes may simply have traits (autistic type) not sufficient enough to reach a formal 'diagnosis' but this predisposition may explain why they may have difficulty matching or why somehow the decision to have babies is delayed, suggesting that the age may not be a causal factor in itself. This last theory is relevant for IVF as it has been reported by some (level of evidence fairly low) that IVF is associated with a higher incidence of autism and learning difficulties in IVF children (the CDC has some public info on this). However it may be that it's not the IVF procedure itself that would induce cognitive deficits but more that the parents seeking IVF treatments may already carry the genetic background leading them to use IVF and have children with cognitive deficits.
So, for IVF, we ain't seen nothing yet.
Disclosure: both my parents conceived me at an advanced age and I've never come across data or analysis that would explain or corroborate the high rate of autistic children (as mentioned above by BG2008) from parents working in finance, PE or similar jobs.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 08, 2020, 06:29:14 PM
I think it was said earlier so let me just throw my vote behind commodity lite-AI. That stuff seems to really be gaining steam. It will get easier and easier to apply and the workforce with relevant skills will grow.  It has and will continue to have a wide variety of applications.

How to invest?  Who knows for sure but one thought is that it will drive down costs. Perhaps monopolies with high labor costs will benefit.  Rail companies come to mind as being possible ai winners, oddly enough.

Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Castanza on January 08, 2020, 06:42:59 PM

Any women here will know the dangers of pregnancy as they age. I doubt there's an exact age despite my previous post but the point is the older the worse :(

I hear this daily from my wife who’s specialized in Neonatal Intensive Care.  :o
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Gregmal on January 08, 2020, 06:44:21 PM
With regard to genetic deficiencies in the IVF process, I have been told that more recently, given the advances in accessibility, couples are being sold the option to perform genetic testing on embryos prior to selection. While it is old news that one can choose the gender of their child, now having the ability to select the healthiest of the harvest further makes this something that potentially appeals to a wider audience.

The mainstream acceptability is also still incredibly low. No one ever wonders why so many celebrities have twins at what seems like a significantly greater rate than normal folks? Or how wealthier folks tend to conceive later on? IVF...so as this starts becoming more acceptable to talk about, and accessible from the healthcare standpoint(Starbucks for instance covers this for part time workers now!) I think it is an inevitable growth arena. From there, it will merely become a decision, rather than an embarassing subject and a financial hardship, and when people are given the choice between "trying" blindfolded and leaving the health of their baby to chance, VS, having the entire process planned; no different than a vacation and the health more or less assured- I think I can see where it leads.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: cherzeca on January 08, 2020, 07:08:05 PM
@gregmal. agree with the social trend, especially as women in the workplace defer pregnancy in order to first establish their careers, but are there investable names?  sounds to me more like a good career path rec for a medical student
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Cigarbutt on January 08, 2020, 07:28:54 PM
With regard to genetic deficiencies in the IVF process, I have been told that more recently, given the advances in accessibility, couples are being sold the option to perform genetic testing on embryos prior to selection. While it is old news that one can choose the gender of their child, now having the ability to select the healthiest of the harvest further makes this something that potentially appeals to a wider audience.

The mainstream acceptability is also still incredibly low. No one ever wonders why so many celebrities have twins at what seems like a significantly greater rate than normal folks? Or how wealthier folks tend to conceive later on? IVF...so as this starts becoming more acceptable to talk about, and accessible from the healthcare standpoint(Starbucks for instance covers this for part time workers now!) I think it is an inevitable growth arena. From there, it will merely become a decision, rather than an embarassing subject and a financial hardship, and when people are given the choice between "trying" blindfolded and leaving the health of their baby to chance, VS, having the entire process planned; no different than a vacation and the health more or less assured- I think I can see where it leads.
-The social acceptance and access.
You may be interested to know that IVFs are only partially covered by our Canadian medicare-for-all system and provincial coverage varies. There doesn't seem to be a terrible amount of social stigma for infertile couples looking for alternatives (in fact, it could be the opposite with generalized sympathy) but access remains a key issue. In my jurisdiction, in 2010, there was a decision to publicly fund open access to IVF for both medical and social infertility (the story behind this is interesting but not relevant for you although it involved a local celebrity). Interestingly, this was followed by a huge demand in services, a significant improvement in results including a drop in rates of multiples births and... an explosion in costs, so much so that the program was severely curtailed in 2014 (due to 'fairness' reasons). This post is not to compare both systems, it is to underline that when coverage will be more widespread (private, public, hybrid or whatever), there will be a realization that there is a huge unmet demand that will stretch from medical to social reasons.

I think it was said earlier so let me just throw my vote behind commodity lite-AI. That stuff seems to really be gaining steam. It will get easier and easier to apply and the workforce with relevant skills will grow.  It has and will continue to have a wide variety of applications.

How to invest?  Who knows for sure but one thought is that it will drive down costs. Perhaps monopolies with high labor costs will benefit.  Rail companies come to mind as being possible ai winners, oddly enough.
I'm note sure what you mean by commodity lite-AI (the first basic applications?) but I agree that this could benefit railroads. The industry has achieved a huge reduction in employment and corresponding improvement in 'productivity', and the employment levels have stabilized but there appears to be some incremental room for further downsizing related to more efficient management of inputs. Just in case you don't get access to the Post article, they discuss lower employment in 2019 due to cyclical factors but the renewed productivity phenomenon is also described.
https://www.railserve.com/employment.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/railroads-are-slashing-workers-cheered-on-by-wall-street-to-stay-profitable-amid-trumps-trade-war/2020/01/02/dc757ed4-1603-11ea-a659-7d69641c6ff7_story.html
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Gregmal on January 08, 2020, 07:37:25 PM
@gregmal. agree with the social trend, especially as women in the workplace defer pregnancy in order to first establish their careers, but are there investable names?  sounds to me more like a good career path rec for a medical student

Theres a few. VITR is a monster and the undisputed king but you're paying a high price for that. You've got a few others like Virtus and Jinxin but my favorite is HTL which is much more off the radar and has what appears to be enough hair to keep most folks away. But Ive found management to be good stewards of capital, disciplined with acquisitions, and not terrible in choosing how and when to raise capital. PGNY I like too but not at 10x sales for what is ultimately middleman work. I'd at least be waiting until lockup to consider touching that, even if its part of a basket approach.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Gregmal on January 08, 2020, 07:52:07 PM
@Cigarbutt- definitely interesting. This was around 2010 and in Quebec, yea? I dont doubt that happens...we all know if free healthcare in the US takes over costs will be completely ignored!

All kidding and politics aside, I would more so think moderately scaling out available is what occurs. Most employers dont offer coverage, but that is changing. And I don't know if "stigma" is the right word, although maybe, but its definitely not an open subject of discussion for people here. Taboo, perhaps. Or maybe just uncomfortable. Then theres also the whacky religious folks who hate it as well. The markets in Europe and Asia seem to be way ahead of the US; hard to discern what this actually implies, but I would think we do have some catching up to do with the world given our societal trends.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: jobyts on January 09, 2020, 12:50:31 AM
Online dating

My teenager told that among their circles finding a date through tinder implies that you are not smart enough to find one in person.
That felt me as a warning flag for the future of the online dating industry, and I sold my MTCH stock while doing the year end re-balancing.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 09, 2020, 04:45:37 AM
Cigarbutt, I meant the readily available machine learning libraries.  I just hesitate to call what I am talking about AI so a lite seems appropriate.  This technology seems to be getting way more accessible and that's what is required for wide spread applications.

I am thinking of augmenting workers tasks to boost productivity.  With rails there is a lot of potential for self driving trains IN THE YARD for stitching trains together, as one example.  It is actually one of the most dangerous places for rail crews.  You would still need people out there but maybe less people and maybe if can be done faster and safer.

 We don't need to wait for these technologies to be invented it's more a matter of engineering and initiative at this point.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: wachtwoord on January 09, 2020, 04:53:56 AM
Online dating

My teenager told that among their circles finding a date through tinder implies that you are not smart enough to find one in person.
That felt me as a warning flag for the future of the online dating industry, and I sold my MTCH stock while doing the year end re-balancing.

Tinder is not for online dating but for online fling finding matchup (online casual sex?). Other solutions exist for finding relationships.

The latter is a huge grow market in my opinion. Especially knowing how socially unconnected and busy people are these days (if this doesn't materialize birth numbers will go the way of Japan).

Similarly, I expect solutions for finding friendships to appear and become popular (and no, before anyone says, Facebook is not for finding friends ...).
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: RuleNumberOne on January 10, 2020, 09:42:38 PM
Yeah, i bought my current house from someone who wanted to escape CA's short-term capital gains tax and moved to Austin, Texas.

It seems Austin is one of the hottest housing markets in the country. I think it is the first choice for people looking to run away from the Bay Area.

Texas is completely flat and has a lot of land, so it may not go up too much over the long term.

Tequila (CUERVO.MX)
Artificial body parts and organs
Space Technology
Housing in Texas
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Spekulatius on January 11, 2020, 05:16:25 PM
Yeah, i bought my current house from someone who wanted to escape CA's short-term capital gains tax and moved to Austin, Texas.

It seems Austin is one of the hottest housing markets in the country. I think it is the first choice for people looking to run away from the Bay Area.

Texas is completely flat and has a lot of land, so it may not go up too much over the long term.

Tequila (CUERVO.MX)
Artificial body parts and organs
Space Technology
Housing in Texas

It’s true that building in Texas is comparably easy, which holds housing prices down, but I think that may change for two reasons that are probably somewhat related:
1) demographics are changing and Texas become “bluer” and at some point attitudes towards zoning etc will become more like in California.

2j The expansion is space has its limit with the millennial generation that can exist any more if there isn’t a Chipotle and Starbucks within two blocks from the home. That will cause some housing to become much more desirable and limit the spread.

I would think any of the above would show in a city like Austin first, DFW area second and Houston probably last. Anyways, I think it would be a multi decade trend and then there is some back wind from the Texas economy doing better than average too. I think any bet on the Texas economy in the long run may be a good one.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: NewbieD on January 12, 2020, 02:17:11 AM
Vitrolife could be worth a look for those looking at IVF. Any other suugestions?
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: DTEJD1997 on January 12, 2020, 12:21:52 PM
Hey all:

I think we are still in the early innings of revitalization of the industrial Midwest and the return of manufacturing and commerce.

If you are patient and careful, you can buy real estate in the midwest for well less than what it costs to RENT on the coasts.  Obviously NYC & SF are always going to be important and expensive cities.  They will probably always have lots of business and activity.  HOWEVER, those skilled people with capital who can figure out what to relocate in the Midwest are going to have a competitive advantage (real estate & operating costs & wages are lower).  Those who figure it out and can do it are going to make a lot of money.

I knew real estate in & around Detroit was "silly" cheap.  In the past month, I've discovered another place that is perhaps even cheaper than Detroit, and arguably a better geographic/political location.  So it is not just Detroit, but probably the whole of the Midwest.

The Midwest should also start to become attractive to employees.  You can OWN your house, have a NICE house.  Heck, $300K can buy you a mini-mansion in a good school district.  What will $300k buy you on the coasts?  An ambitious & capable employee can accumulate capital & have a good standard of living in the Midwest.  What good is it to make double in NYC if you can't hold onto any of it?

Conversely, I think we are at or near "peak coasts".  That is, the prices/influence in NYC and SF are at or near their peaks.

If I am right, this is already starting...but will still take a number of years to play out.

Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: SharperDingaan on January 12, 2020, 01:51:31 PM
Vehicle manufacturing, and workforce re-training.

What we are starting to see in vehicle making, resembles what occurred when cars displaced the horse and buggy; today's auto-manufacturer being yesterday's buggy maker. Bet against NA auto, and its ability to adapt rapidly enough.

An electric vs an ICE vehicle requires materially fewer parts, and they are easily replaceable modules; you don't fix, you swap out the module.  What do you think happens when 40-50% of the NA vehicle-making workforce becomes obsolete? And do you really think that today's GM or Ford will look anything like it might look like, under an 'all electric' line-up? - even if a GM or Ford still exist? Workforce retraining becomes a growth opportunity.

SD
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: Lakesider on January 12, 2020, 01:57:38 PM
Upgrades to DDR5 at data centers? Micron just releasing specs now.
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: DTEJD1997 on January 12, 2020, 03:19:20 PM
Vehicle manufacturing, and workforce re-training.

What we are starting to see in vehicle making, resembles what occurred when cars displaced the horse and buggy; today's auto-manufacturer being yesterday's buggy maker. Bet against NA auto, and its ability to adapt rapidly enough.

An electric vs an ICE vehicle requires materially fewer parts, and they are easily replaceable modules; you don't fix, you swap out the module.  What do you think happens when 40-50% of the NA vehicle-making workforce becomes obsolete? And do you really think that today's GM or Ford will look anything like it might look like, under an 'all electric' line-up? - even if a GM or Ford still exist? Workforce retraining becomes a growth opportunity.

SD

Do you really think we are going to all electric OR even majority electric vehicles in NA market in the next 5 years?

I don't see it.  Not even close.

I don't know of any line of electric vehicle line or company that is profitable.  Tesla sometimes makes money, but rarely.  Tesla is going to replace Ford & GM?  seriously?

Chrysler is building a HUGE new plant adjacent to their Jefferson Ave. assembly in Detroit.  They will be producing GASOLINE vehicles there.  At least in the beginning.  They are hiring 3,000+ new workers.  Supporting businesses are moving in there.  The neighborhood is starting to improve already.

Conversely, GM is shutting down their Poletown assembly plant.  This is where the electric Cadillac and Volt were produced.  BOTH of those electric cars have been shut down.  How much money/time/talent has GM wasted on their electric vehicles?

Ford has bought up the abandoned Michigan Central train station (and some adjacent buildings/lots) for their self driving and electric vehicle engineers.  They are spending AT LEAST $700mm to do this.  I guess Ford does not have office/lab space in Dearborn or their other facilities?  If I were a Ford shareholder, I would be PISSED at the squandering of capital on that project.

In my circle of friends/family, I only know of ONE PERSON who wants/has an electric car.  For everybody else, it is not even a topic of conversation.  Besides analysts on the coasts and hipsters, who is demanding electric vehicles?

FCAU seems to have the best plan for electrification, at least so far. 

I don't see electrification/self driving coming, and I think it is largely a bubble and waste of capital at this point.  If consumers wanted electric vehicles, why has nobody been able to make any money satisfying demand?  That is even WITH government subsidies.

We will see.

Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: james22 on January 12, 2020, 07:26:00 PM
At the Robin Hood conference last week, I enjoyed the presentation by author and entrepreneur Tony Seba, which he posted here (31 minutes – an earlier, longer version is here). He discussed “S” curves and how we tend to underestimate the rate of adoption of new technology.

Here are two examples:

One, Google estimated that its Lidar system, which cost $150,000 to build, would cost $70,000 by 2012. Analysts mocked and scoffed at the estimate – but Google was right: that’s exactly what it cost in 2012. But what’s more impressive is that by 2013, that same equipment cost $10,000… only a year later, a mere $1,000… and then three years later, $250!

And two, in 2000, a top computer used for nuclear warfare simulations had a capacity of 1 teraflop (1 trillion floating point operations per second), cost $46 million, used 850 kilowatts of energy, and took up 1,600 square feet. By 2017, Nvidia had developed a 2.3 teraflop computer that cost $59, used 15 watts, and was small enough to fit in your hand.

The lesson here is that humans think in a linear fashion – yet certain systems, including tech disruptions, are non-linear.

Seba’s conclusion regarding electric vehicles is that they will account for the majority of new cars sold within six years.


https://empirefinancialresearch.com/articles/observations-from-the-consumer-electronics-show-electric-and-autonomous-vehicles-whos-buying-tesla-japan-vs-china-business-cultures-thoughts-on-the-12-questions-to-ask-before-you-marry-someone
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: BG2008 on January 12, 2020, 08:35:51 PM
Hey all:

I think we are still in the early innings of revitalization of the industrial Midwest and the return of manufacturing and commerce.

If you are patient and careful, you can buy real estate in the midwest for well less than what it costs to RENT on the coasts.  Obviously NYC & SF are always going to be important and expensive cities.  They will probably always have lots of business and activity.  HOWEVER, those skilled people with capital who can figure out what to relocate in the Midwest are going to have a competitive advantage (real estate & operating costs & wages are lower).  Those who figure it out and can do it are going to make a lot of money.

I knew real estate in & around Detroit was "silly" cheap.  In the past month, I've discovered another place that is perhaps even cheaper than Detroit, and arguably a better geographic/political location.  So it is not just Detroit, but probably the whole of the Midwest.

The Midwest should also start to become attractive to employees.  You can OWN your house, have a NICE house.  Heck, $300K can buy you a mini-mansion in a good school district.  What will $300k buy you on the coasts?  An ambitious & capable employee can accumulate capital & have a good standard of living in the Midwest.  What good is it to make double in NYC if you can't hold onto any of it?

Conversely, I think we are at or near "peak coasts".  That is, the prices/influence in NYC and SF are at or near their peaks.

If I am right, this is already starting...but will still take a number of years to play out.

Come on DTEJD1997, you just doing the "private real estate" equivalent of talking your own book.  You're pulling a Bill Ackman!  I see right through you!  Just joking.  I really have to come visit you in Detroit. 
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: SharperDingaan on January 13, 2020, 05:23:10 AM
Your train station example evidences that even Detroit recognizes that the future is electric, not ICE.
And the Jefferson plant evidences what you do over transition. Build huge & new; then transfer work from all the less efficient, higher cost and smaller plants, to pay for it. OK for maintaining profit, not so hot for the laid off workforce.

SD


Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: james22 on January 14, 2020, 03:50:43 AM
With the rise of SRI/ESG funds, we might begin to see a greater sin stock premium?
Title: Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
Post by: cherzeca on January 20, 2020, 05:58:26 PM
WSJ article on investable themes. https://www.wsj.com/articles/four-fund-themes-that-investors-are-likely-to-bet-on-11578279840?mod=hp_jr_pos3

mentions thematic etfs:  QTUM, TAN, PBW