Author Topic: in what investable process are we still in the early innings  (Read 4939 times)

BG2008

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2020, 05:31:22 PM »
Yes, Anti Aging will be a big trend


Cigarbutt

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2020, 06:19:22 PM »
^I agree with IVF.
Interesting tidbit linking autism, IVF and parental age (for those interested).
Risk factors for autism remain largely ill-defined but parental age appears to be a significant factor as similar and significant findings have been replicated in multiple and very well designed studies. Take a look at the following cool 3-D graph coming from a recent study saying the same thing and possibly adding more color and relevant perspective.
https://www.nature.com/articles/mp201570/figures/3
RR is relative risk and is just a way to measure the strength of an association between an exposure (parental age) and an outcome (autism in children).
A proposed theory is that parents (both) would accumulate genetic mutations and then become at risk of transmitting 'deranged' genes. This would make sense for men who are described to produce newer batches of progressively lower sperm count and quality but women's eggs form (all of them) when lying in their mother's uterus and the eggs then simply wait to be called into play. Anyways, other factors may come into play (such as the socio-economic status) and, in a fascinating way, it is thought by many that the thought process should go the other way around and maybe parents holding a certain pool of genes may simply have traits (autistic type) not sufficient enough to reach a formal 'diagnosis' but this predisposition may explain why they may have difficulty matching or why somehow the decision to have babies is delayed, suggesting that the age may not be a causal factor in itself. This last theory is relevant for IVF as it has been reported by some (level of evidence fairly low) that IVF is associated with a higher incidence of autism and learning difficulties in IVF children (the CDC has some public info on this). However it may be that it's not the IVF procedure itself that would induce cognitive deficits but more that the parents seeking IVF treatments may already carry the genetic background leading them to use IVF and have children with cognitive deficits.
So, for IVF, we ain't seen nothing yet.
Disclosure: both my parents conceived me at an advanced age and I've never come across data or analysis that would explain or corroborate the high rate of autistic children (as mentioned above by BG2008) from parents working in finance, PE or similar jobs.

no_free_lunch

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #22 on: January 08, 2020, 06:29:14 PM »
I think it was said earlier so let me just throw my vote behind commodity lite-AI. That stuff seems to really be gaining steam. It will get easier and easier to apply and the workforce with relevant skills will grow.  It has and will continue to have a wide variety of applications.

How to invest?  Who knows for sure but one thought is that it will drive down costs. Perhaps monopolies with high labor costs will benefit.  Rail companies come to mind as being possible ai winners, oddly enough.


Castanza

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #23 on: January 08, 2020, 06:42:59 PM »

Any women here will know the dangers of pregnancy as they age. I doubt there's an exact age despite my previous post but the point is the older the worse :(

I hear this daily from my wife who’s specialized in Neonatal Intensive Care.  :o

Gregmal

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2020, 06:44:21 PM »
With regard to genetic deficiencies in the IVF process, I have been told that more recently, given the advances in accessibility, couples are being sold the option to perform genetic testing on embryos prior to selection. While it is old news that one can choose the gender of their child, now having the ability to select the healthiest of the harvest further makes this something that potentially appeals to a wider audience.

The mainstream acceptability is also still incredibly low. No one ever wonders why so many celebrities have twins at what seems like a significantly greater rate than normal folks? Or how wealthier folks tend to conceive later on? IVF...so as this starts becoming more acceptable to talk about, and accessible from the healthcare standpoint(Starbucks for instance covers this for part time workers now!) I think it is an inevitable growth arena. From there, it will merely become a decision, rather than an embarassing subject and a financial hardship, and when people are given the choice between "trying" blindfolded and leaving the health of their baby to chance, VS, having the entire process planned; no different than a vacation and the health more or less assured- I think I can see where it leads.

cherzeca

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #25 on: January 08, 2020, 07:08:05 PM »
@gregmal. agree with the social trend, especially as women in the workplace defer pregnancy in order to first establish their careers, but are there investable names?  sounds to me more like a good career path rec for a medical student

Cigarbutt

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #26 on: January 08, 2020, 07:28:54 PM »
With regard to genetic deficiencies in the IVF process, I have been told that more recently, given the advances in accessibility, couples are being sold the option to perform genetic testing on embryos prior to selection. While it is old news that one can choose the gender of their child, now having the ability to select the healthiest of the harvest further makes this something that potentially appeals to a wider audience.

The mainstream acceptability is also still incredibly low. No one ever wonders why so many celebrities have twins at what seems like a significantly greater rate than normal folks? Or how wealthier folks tend to conceive later on? IVF...so as this starts becoming more acceptable to talk about, and accessible from the healthcare standpoint(Starbucks for instance covers this for part time workers now!) I think it is an inevitable growth arena. From there, it will merely become a decision, rather than an embarassing subject and a financial hardship, and when people are given the choice between "trying" blindfolded and leaving the health of their baby to chance, VS, having the entire process planned; no different than a vacation and the health more or less assured- I think I can see where it leads.
-The social acceptance and access.
You may be interested to know that IVFs are only partially covered by our Canadian medicare-for-all system and provincial coverage varies. There doesn't seem to be a terrible amount of social stigma for infertile couples looking for alternatives (in fact, it could be the opposite with generalized sympathy) but access remains a key issue. In my jurisdiction, in 2010, there was a decision to publicly fund open access to IVF for both medical and social infertility (the story behind this is interesting but not relevant for you although it involved a local celebrity). Interestingly, this was followed by a huge demand in services, a significant improvement in results including a drop in rates of multiples births and... an explosion in costs, so much so that the program was severely curtailed in 2014 (due to 'fairness' reasons). This post is not to compare both systems, it is to underline that when coverage will be more widespread (private, public, hybrid or whatever), there will be a realization that there is a huge unmet demand that will stretch from medical to social reasons.

I think it was said earlier so let me just throw my vote behind commodity lite-AI. That stuff seems to really be gaining steam. It will get easier and easier to apply and the workforce with relevant skills will grow.  It has and will continue to have a wide variety of applications.

How to invest?  Who knows for sure but one thought is that it will drive down costs. Perhaps monopolies with high labor costs will benefit.  Rail companies come to mind as being possible ai winners, oddly enough.
I'm note sure what you mean by commodity lite-AI (the first basic applications?) but I agree that this could benefit railroads. The industry has achieved a huge reduction in employment and corresponding improvement in 'productivity', and the employment levels have stabilized but there appears to be some incremental room for further downsizing related to more efficient management of inputs. Just in case you don't get access to the Post article, they discuss lower employment in 2019 due to cyclical factors but the renewed productivity phenomenon is also described.
https://www.railserve.com/employment.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/railroads-are-slashing-workers-cheered-on-by-wall-street-to-stay-profitable-amid-trumps-trade-war/2020/01/02/dc757ed4-1603-11ea-a659-7d69641c6ff7_story.html

Gregmal

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #27 on: January 08, 2020, 07:37:25 PM »
@gregmal. agree with the social trend, especially as women in the workplace defer pregnancy in order to first establish their careers, but are there investable names?  sounds to me more like a good career path rec for a medical student

Theres a few. VITR is a monster and the undisputed king but you're paying a high price for that. You've got a few others like Virtus and Jinxin but my favorite is HTL which is much more off the radar and has what appears to be enough hair to keep most folks away. But Ive found management to be good stewards of capital, disciplined with acquisitions, and not terrible in choosing how and when to raise capital. PGNY I like too but not at 10x sales for what is ultimately middleman work. I'd at least be waiting until lockup to consider touching that, even if its part of a basket approach.

Gregmal

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #28 on: January 08, 2020, 07:52:07 PM »
@Cigarbutt- definitely interesting. This was around 2010 and in Quebec, yea? I dont doubt that happens...we all know if free healthcare in the US takes over costs will be completely ignored!

All kidding and politics aside, I would more so think moderately scaling out available is what occurs. Most employers dont offer coverage, but that is changing. And I don't know if "stigma" is the right word, although maybe, but its definitely not an open subject of discussion for people here. Taboo, perhaps. Or maybe just uncomfortable. Then theres also the whacky religious folks who hate it as well. The markets in Europe and Asia seem to be way ahead of the US; hard to discern what this actually implies, but I would think we do have some catching up to do with the world given our societal trends.

jobyts

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Re: in what investable process are we still in the early innings
« Reply #29 on: January 09, 2020, 12:50:31 AM »
Online dating

My teenager told that among their circles finding a date through tinder implies that you are not smart enough to find one in person.
That felt me as a warning flag for the future of the online dating industry, and I sold my MTCH stock while doing the year end re-balancing.