Figured this might be good for a new topic, but it relates to the U.S. housing thread. IMF just confirmed global recession. So, the data I've seen usually shows that if the U.S. is in a recession and the globe is ok, the recession is typically short and shallow. However, if the globe is also in a recession, then typically the recession is going to be LONG and DEEP. I feel like 3rd quarter recovery estimates are optimistic at this point. If we see a prolonged recession, housing is going to take a deep dive by end of the year. By next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see housing go down by up to 30% given housing prices are about 30% above their inflation adjusted growth rates in the U.S. It's pretty much back to 06/07 levels.
