Author Topic: Japanese Basket  (Read 27485 times)

Stuart D

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #70 on: February 29, 2020, 05:18:21 PM »
Anyone keeping an eye on things with this latest downturn?  Any low P/E names or anything like that?  I'll post below what lit up on my watchlist, some of this is going to be repeated names, but it's stuff that I thought looked cheap at the current prices:

2055
4624
5918
5921
6303
6496
6648
6943
7229
7399
7501
7628
7902
7937
8144
9885

Thanks for posting.

7628 seems cheap.
Market cap = $19.1 billion (the number on google finance is $21b, but I think they are including treasury stock?)

Cash = $20b, total liabilities = $10b, net income ~ $3 to $4 b / year.

Obviously they'll get hit hard by a slow-down in the auto-market, but it looks like they are built to last.

Any thoughts on this one in particular?


mjohn707

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #71 on: February 29, 2020, 10:33:08 PM »
Anyone keeping an eye on things with this latest downturn?  Any low P/E names or anything like that?  I'll post below what lit up on my watchlist, some of this is going to be repeated names, but it's stuff that I thought looked cheap at the current prices:

2055
4624
5918
5921
6303
6496
6648
6943
7229
7399
7501
7628
7902
7937
8144
9885

Thanks for posting.

7628 seems cheap.
Market cap = $19.1 billion (the number on google finance is $21b, but I think they are including treasury stock?)

Cash = $20b, total liabilities = $10b, net income ~ $3 to $4 b / year.

Obviously they'll get hit hard by a slow-down in the auto-market, but it looks like they are built to last.

Any thoughts on this one in particular?

It looks reasonably cheap on an earnings basis if you give them credit for the extra cash, which is hard to do entirely in Japan it seems like.  A bit cheaper than it's traded historically as well, maybe at 60% of book compared to a 5-year average of around 80%, but they're having a somewhat weaker year than FY2019.  Their earnings do seem to bounce around a bit though.  I think it's probably reasonable in a basket of similarly situated names, but not without risks considering what can happen to these names if they have a few really bad earnings years
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Spekulatius

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #72 on: March 04, 2020, 08:11:01 PM »
For those hunting for Japanese bargains - Kenkyoinvesting apparently has lowered his subscription fees and also added a free Tier. I signed up for the latter, a great resource. If I do more with Japanese stocks, I would probably pay for the kenkyo plus.
https://www.kenkyoinvesting.com/services/
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

mjohn707

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #73 on: March 06, 2020, 04:56:53 PM »
4629 Daishin Chemical seems reasonable.  Shares trade for 45% of book, maybe 6x current earnings if the year finishes as strong as it's seeming, and around 8x average earnings over the long-term.  On a book basis, it's about a 20-25% discount over the 5-year average, but I think that the company might deserve a higher valuation based off of the reasonably consistent ROE numbers.  The company pays a modest dividend, but has not repurchased shares. 
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mjohn707

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #74 on: March 08, 2020, 08:34:52 PM »
7444-Harima-Kyowa also seems reasonable.  At 1410 yen, shares trade for around 42% of book and a P/E of around 6.5.  Historically, that's only about a 25% discount compared to the avg P/B, but the company's ROE and earnings history could I think justify a higher valuation.  The company has low debt, a sufficient current ratio, and pays something of a dividend
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generalsandworkouts

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #75 on: March 08, 2020, 10:28:52 PM »
I've just bought some more KG Intelligence Co (2408). It has discounted NCAV of 529 yen per share (mostly cash) as well as some land. It's currently trading at 262 yen. Business is v. crappy and declining, but it's too cheap IMO. These things can stay cheap for a long time, so best to use a basket approach.
I write about deep value stocks, net-nets and special situations on my blog: https://generalsandworkouts.blogspot.com/

Stuart D

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #76 on: March 09, 2020, 01:35:35 AM »
9628 - San Holdings inc.

Largest funeral services provider in Japan (source: https://www.capitalisticman.com/profiting-from-death-global-funeral-industry-overview-and-analysis/)


Shares outstanding: 11,166,249
Price: 1,101 / share
M.cap: 12.3b
Total liabilities: 4.3b

Cash: 5.3b
A few other assets up their sleeve as well.

Profit: 1.5 (2018), 2.1b (2019)
This may be morbid, but we could expect their profits to grow short term (virus) and long term (relatively old population).

ValueHippie

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #77 on: March 09, 2020, 10:27:25 PM »
7523.T Art Vivant

Profitable netnet that is growing.

Full writeup: http://findstox.com/2020/03/10/growing-netnet-with-good-upside-potential/

Spekulatius

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2020, 06:30:55 AM »
Bought some Tosnet Corp 4754.T. Security service provider. Found it using Kenkyo Investing Magic formula screen.

Very cheap and growing. Substantial net cash and FCF.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

mjohn707

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Re: Japanese Basket
« Reply #79 on: March 10, 2020, 07:36:29 PM »
I bought shares in 8050 Seiko Holdings just below current prices, maybe 1750 yen per share.  Trades maybe around 70% of book, not including any current losses in the equity holdings, and something around 9-10X earnings.  This is sort of on the more expensive side for a Japanese name, but the company has recognizable brand names in the popular line of Seiko watches, a significant export business, a number of new premium offerings, and pays a good dividend.  The company's ROIC has been decent, and free cash has gone over the last number of years towards paying down debt.  It's reasonable I think and at the floor of the 5-year average valuations.

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