Author Topic: Leaving New York City  (Read 17670 times)

Liberty

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2020, 07:31:20 AM »
Who knew people prefer larger living quarters when they can't go out much, and smaller ones when they can go out a lot?

Life is trade-offs, I guess.


BG2008

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2020, 07:31:48 AM »
I've personally sold all my NYC focused REITs and purchased a boutique hotel in Belgrade, as it's the future.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/17/serbia-is-a-new-unlikely-oasis-for-nyc-residents-fleeing-the-city/

How much NYC office do you still own?  This is what makes a market. 

BG2008

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2020, 07:35:27 AM »
Who knew people prefer larger living quarters when they can't go out much, and smaller ones when they can go out a lot?

Life is trade-offs, I guess.

So you mean to tell me that if there was a virus that is very contagious and it make people want to leave densely populated cities with high rent, I am supposed to be shocked at that kind of rationale behavior by the upper middle to rich class?   

Wow, I would've never thought of that.  2008/2009 was scary as well.  People tried to jack my tenants.  Every 7-10 years, you have to experience some pain in real estate.  It's just life.  This is round 2 for me with 2008/2009 being more scary in general but NYC holding up better.  This round is more specific for NYC.  Back in 2008/2009, I was pretty bearish about NYC because all the revenue and profit center that drove that boom was so tied to mortgage packaging.  That was totally going to go away.

cherzeca

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2020, 08:03:43 AM »
Unless there is (another) government bailout of NYC, wouldn't the taxes just continue to increase on the remaining population? I mean, a lot of this stuff is fixed, right? It would kind of create a pretty vicious cycle.``````````````````````````

there is grittiness and there is unsafe.  former is kinda of urban cool, latter is uncool.  NYC is managing itself into uncoolness for your next Gen office workers.  seems like other cities are following suit

thepupil

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2020, 08:27:37 AM »
I've personally sold all my NYC focused REITs and purchased a boutique hotel in Belgrade, as it's the future.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/17/serbia-is-a-new-unlikely-oasis-for-nyc-residents-fleeing-the-city/

How much NYC office do you still own?  This is what makes a market.

low teens % of portfolio and dropping.


Liberty

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2020, 08:33:50 AM »
Who knew people prefer larger living quarters when they can't go out much, and smaller ones when they can go out a lot?

Life is trade-offs, I guess.

So you mean to tell me that if there was a virus that is very contagious and it make people want to leave densely populated cities with high rent, I am supposed to be shocked at that kind of rationale behavior by the upper middle to rich class?   

Wow, I would've never thought of that.  2008/2009 was scary as well.  People tried to jack my tenants.  Every 7-10 years, you have to experience some pain in real estate.  It's just life.  This is round 2 for me with 2008/2009 being more scary in general but NYC holding up better.  This round is more specific for NYC.  Back in 2008/2009, I was pretty bearish about NYC because all the revenue and profit center that drove that boom was so tied to mortgage packaging.  That was totally going to go away.

I know, right.

cherzeca

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #16 on: November 18, 2020, 08:49:46 AM »
Who knew people prefer larger living quarters when they can't go out much, and smaller ones when they can go out a lot?

Life is trade-offs, I guess.

So you mean to tell me that if there was a virus that is very contagious and it make people want to leave densely populated cities with high rent, I am supposed to be shocked at that kind of rationale behavior by the upper middle to rich class?   

Wow, I would've never thought of that.  2008/2009 was scary as well.  People tried to jack my tenants.  Every 7-10 years, you have to experience some pain in real estate.  It's just life.  This is round 2 for me with 2008/2009 being more scary in general but NYC holding up better.  This round is more specific for NYC.  Back in 2008/2009, I was pretty bearish about NYC because all the revenue and profit center that drove that boom was so tied to mortgage packaging.  That was totally going to go away.

covid is precipitating trends that are not friendly to NYC.  the biggest in my mind is the risk that "front office" as well as "back office" of the securities/finance industry will leave NYC.  the latter has already mostly happened. covid is encouraging the former.  if NYC loses much of the financial sector, then it will be shot to hell

BG2008

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #17 on: November 18, 2020, 09:05:26 AM »
I've personally sold all my NYC focused REITs and purchased a boutique hotel in Belgrade, as it's the future.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/17/serbia-is-a-new-unlikely-oasis-for-nyc-residents-fleeing-the-city/

How much NYC office do you still own?  This is what makes a market.

low teens % of portfolio and dropping.

What was it at peak and how do you typically size?

BG2008

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2020, 09:11:44 AM »
Who knew people prefer larger living quarters when they can't go out much, and smaller ones when they can go out a lot?

Life is trade-offs, I guess.

So you mean to tell me that if there was a virus that is very contagious and it make people want to leave densely populated cities with high rent, I am supposed to be shocked at that kind of rationale behavior by the upper middle to rich class?   

Wow, I would've never thought of that.  2008/2009 was scary as well.  People tried to jack my tenants.  Every 7-10 years, you have to experience some pain in real estate.  It's just life.  This is round 2 for me with 2008/2009 being more scary in general but NYC holding up better.  This round is more specific for NYC.  Back in 2008/2009, I was pretty bearish about NYC because all the revenue and profit center that drove that boom was so tied to mortgage packaging.  That was totally going to go away.

covid is precipitating trends that are not friendly to NYC.  the biggest in my mind is the risk that "front office" as well as "back office" of the securities/finance industry will leave NYC.  the latter has already mostly happened. covid is encouraging the former.  if NYC loses much of the financial sector, then it will be shot to hell

I don't have a lot of numbers or stats to back up.  I guess I am one of those HODL NYC people.  FB signed the Farley building while simultaneously laying out a plan to have 50% of the work force remote in 10 years.  My interpretation is that FB and the other big tech companies realize that NYC will likely be the best source for the 22-35 talent.   It wasn't that long ago when corporations were complaining that they can't compete on hiring in the suburbs.   

New normal probably looks like "35+ married with kids moves to the burbs earlier" because companies are willing to accommodate work from home or at least partially.  This provides a place for the younger 22-35 single and ready to mingle to flood into the city.  There were concerns a while ago that NYC was getting unaffordable and the young blood were priced out.  I think this is a great reset.  Those young'uns want to be near where the ACTION is which includes career prospect and mates.  Living in NYC never made sense for the parents helping out their kids etc.   But it is glorious for the kids. 

Willing to go long NYC.  There are still bargains.

In the ZIRP, the 6% dividend yield is KING (or likely to double).

fareastwarriors

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Re: Leaving New York City
« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2020, 09:19:55 AM »
I've personally sold all my NYC focused REITs and purchased a boutique hotel in Belgrade, as it's the future.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/17/serbia-is-a-new-unlikely-oasis-for-nyc-residents-fleeing-the-city/

How much NYC office do you still own?  This is what makes a market.

low teens % of portfolio and dropping.

What was it at peak and how do you typically size?

Pupil and Gregmal trimming their office REITs... Uh oh...

Run, don't walk!