Author Topic: Massive opportunity developing in gold stocks  (Read 5002 times)

no_free_lunch

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Re: Massive opportunity developing in gold stocks
« Reply #30 on: November 14, 2020, 01:03:18 PM »
DTEJD,  i had a look at CMCL, that is not a good example of a company that has rewarded investors is it?  When I look at the chart it is down over all but shorter time periods.  It looks it was 5-6x higher in the early 2000's when the last gold cycle started.


DTEJD1997

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Re: Massive opportunity developing in gold stocks
« Reply #31 on: November 14, 2020, 02:08:16 PM »
DTEJD,  i had a look at CMCL, that is not a good example of a company that has rewarded investors is it?  When I look at the chart it is down over all but shorter time periods.  It looks it was 5-6x higher in the early 2000's when the last gold cycle started.

Not sure about that...I think that CMCL in the late 90's, early 2000's might have been a true penny stock, with no significant operations?  I only know about the more modern history.  CMCL bought the Blanket Mine from Kinross in 2006.  All sorts of new management was brought in then.  Maybe recapitalized?  The whole company changed in 2005, both in terms of operations and management.  Modern management has largely delivered on what they say.  Of course, sometime things were slower than expected, sometimes it was more expensive, sometime a bumpy road

I bought in initially shortly after CMCL initiated their dividend (2012).  That was about 7 years ago or so for me.  The dividend yield was about 10% then.  Since then, they have maintained the dividend, and have raised it numerous times.  I have traded in & out a few times, but have been holding & adding for the past 4 years or so.  7 years is probably not a complete cycle, but it is certainly not short term.

Also, look to the future with CMCL.  Zimbabwe has made tremendous strides in their society and economy.  Of course, they have a long way to go, but they are generally on the right path.  Look at CMCL, they have run the Blanket Mine incredibly well.  They are about to increase production significantly with a new central shaft.  The government has invited them to bid on government owned properties.  It is expected that CMCL will bring these future properties quickly into development.  That they have the capital, experience and knowledge to get an asset up & producing cash flow.

Set CMCL aside, there are some other mining companies that have done incredibly well over long (decades) of time.  For example, is a 20X increase in stock value over 24 years an acceptable return?  What if significant dividends were paid all along that time, increasing the 20X return?

Well, we will see.

Cardboard

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D33pV4lue

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Re: Massive opportunity developing in gold stocks
« Reply #33 on: November 27, 2020, 09:47:19 AM »
Then can someone show me a chart of equities index to inflation vs Gold indexed to inflation?


upload images


upload

Blue = DJIA
Red(?) = SP500
Gold = Gold
Silver = Silver

I said I was going to leave this alone but the fact that you shared a graph of the price return of the Dow Jones and S&P as a comparison to Gold and Silver just blew my mind. The correct chart to share would be total return since as an owner of a company you benefit from dividends and buybacks. Also, my point was that people who say Gold is a hedge against inflation are wrong and as you will see below if you go back to 1980 and adjust for inflation Gold has a negative return!  The following is the CAGR of Gold and DJAI Total return with dividends reinvested from dates shown to Present (11/25/2020) adjusted for inflation.

BOLD = Gold return

01/01/2010 = 3.45% 10.85%
01/01/2005 = 7.89%  7.33%*
01/01/2000 = 7.43% 5.08%*
01/01/1995= 4.25% 8.49%
01/01/1990 = 2.88% 8.26%
01/01/1985 = 2.73% 9.41%
01/01/1980= -0.18% 9.12%

rkbabang

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Re: Massive opportunity developing in gold stocks
« Reply #34 on: Today at 03:48:49 PM »
Then can someone show me a chart of equities index to inflation vs Gold indexed to inflation?


upload images


upload

Blue = DJIA
Red(?) = SP500
Gold = Gold
Silver = Silver

I said I was going to leave this alone but the fact that you shared a graph of the price return of the Dow Jones and S&P as a comparison to Gold and Silver just blew my mind. The correct chart to share would be total return since as an owner of a company you benefit from dividends and buybacks. Also, my point was that people who say Gold is a hedge against inflation are wrong and as you will see below if you go back to 1980 and adjust for inflation Gold has a negative return!  The following is the CAGR of Gold and DJAI Total return with dividends reinvested from dates shown to Present (11/25/2020) adjusted for inflation.

BOLD = Gold return

01/01/2010 = 3.45% 10.85%
01/01/2005 = 7.89%  7.33%*
01/01/2000 = 7.43% 5.08%*
01/01/1995= 4.25% 8.49%
01/01/1990 = 2.88% 8.26%
01/01/1985 = 2.73% 9.41%
01/01/1980= -0.18% 9.12%


1980 was a high year for gold, but even still, compare holding $10k 1980 dollars worth of gold with the purchasing power of holding $10k in cash for the last 40 years.  Suddenly -0.18% doesn't sound so bad.