Leaving New York City

[SharperDingaan]

Living in NYC is no different to living in a London, Paris, Milan, Sydney,  Barcelona, etc.
If you are a young person and shopping for a mate, this is where you want to be .... but it's a limited term engagement (6-7 yrs at most). You are also a big chunk of the annual churn - once you've decided to settle down you're renting in the burbs, 'cause kids are expensive!

If most WFH and zoom all day - both the opportunities and the pool of potential mates in NYC just crashed.
F*** It!, live in the burbs, travel to NYC on the weekend, and just rent a room in the DT on saturday night. Hotels are hurting, deals are abundant, and you look 'smart'. Not paying inflated rents, no car to maintain, discretionary cashflow, yada, yada. Common practice.

6-7 years? Graduate at 24/25 with a masters/designation, if the family hasn't started by 30/31 it isn't going to.
Better get to it - 'cause the clock is ticking!

Does it come back? Sure, but anyone's guess as to when
Is it cheap? Compared to what, and is the comparative relevant

SD

[cherzeca]

Des Moines may not be the best comparison to NYC (LOL)...though I have visited it on work, and it was rather pleasant...except for the weather.

how about Atlanta? Nashville? Austin? Boston? Denver?

know personally a young couple who got a 3 bedroom in Atlanta overlooking Piedmont Park for $1K/month less than their prior 2 bedroom in NYC (chelsea).

NYC is not going anywhere (one of the attractions of investing in RE is that it doesn't go anywhere), but I see it losing its financial services industry dominance, and that is an important driver of NYC wealth.  OTOH, I do see a lot of life sciences buildings going up in NYC (albeit in marginal neighborhoods), which is an important trend to follow.  so net net, I see NYC becoming more like boston in terms of the strength of its financial services industry (and perhaps even approaching boston's academic/research strength), but a NYC that looks more like boston is not NYC...

[merkhet]

^ Damn Merkhet, you were living large!  Somehow I never envisioned you living in Des Moines anyway!

Haha, 24 year old me made... interesting... choices. My last apartment before leaving NYC was a block away from Union Square because it allowed me to easily stumble home drunk @ 3am. Also, it was next to a number of bars, and I could easily bounce someone from the bar to my apartment. (“My apartment is just a few doors down.”) 😁

Des Moines may not be the best comparison to NYC (LOL)...though I have visited it on work, and it was rather pleasant...except for the weather.

how about Atlanta? Nashville? Austin? Boston? Denver?

know personally a young couple who got a 3 bedroom in Atlanta overlooking Piedmont Park for $1K/month less than their prior 2 bedroom in NYC (chelsea).

NYC is not going anywhere (one of the attractions of investing in RE is that it doesn't go anywhere), but I see it losing its financial services industry dominance, and that is an important driver of NYC wealth.  OTOH, I do see a lot of life sciences buildings going up in NYC (albeit in marginal neighborhoods), which is an important trend to follow.  so net net, I see NYC becoming more like boston in terms of the strength of its financial services industry (and perhaps even approaching boston's academic/research strength), but a NYC that looks more like boston is not NYC...

Fair enough! I would say that even compared to Austin (or even Dallas, where I live now) there’s a huge gap in terms of things to do, cultural aspects, etc. The fact that there’s only a $1k/month difference between Atlanta & Chelsea is probably bullish NYC IMO.

But, of course, this is all dependent on life stage! 37 year old me has a wife and a kid, so Dallas is great!

[Nomad]

It's interesting to see the narratives pop up in this thread about NYC either becoming the next Mogadishu or coming back better than ever due to horny young singles, fancy jobs, etc. More than any other city, New York seems to emit a reality distortion field that causes people to either love it or hope that it burns to the ground. Having lived in NYC, I certainly think that many people are too emotionally invested in the place. It seems like a lot of people draw some strange Outer Scorecard type of satisfaction and feeling of superiority from living or working in NYC.

All that aside, from a real estate standpoint, I would be very hesitant to touch anything in New York right now, especially at the cap rates on offer. The expression "cheap for a reason" comes immediately to mind. Even before Covid, the population of NYC was going down, not up. Don't believe me? Look it up yourself. NYC has been losing people for the last several years, and the population decline has been slowed only by the level of international in-migration. American-born residents are moving OUT of the city on a net basis, and have been for many years: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/planning-level/nyc-population/new-population/current-populatiion-estimattes.pdf

Now, maybe this trend reverses and American citizens start moving back in droves due to cheaper rent, perceived "coolness," etc. Or maybe immigrants start flowing in again. Maybe I'm completely wrong and missing the investment opportunity of a lifetime. All I am saying is that NYC as an investment thesis is in my "too hard" pile. It's not unprecedented for a city to fall and never recover. Look at Detroit - once one of the gems of the United States - which has never returned to its former glory.

[BG2008]

Why don't people talk about biology?  Why don't people talk about the fact that if you are 22-35, single, horny, and promising, you want to be in NYC to meet others just like you.  If you are 25, Asian (East and South), and can code or build complex financial models or just trying to revolutionize the world, you want to be here.  Your odds are slimmer in Wichita.  If you are LGBTQ, this is a great place for you.  If you want Dim Sum, this is the place for you (although capacity leaving the market temporarily).  50% of my thesis is that this is the deepest liquidity pool for dating.  I will continue to bet on biology.

not to mention the pricing from a consumer standpoint is starting to get super attractive in my view:

https://streeteasy.com/building/360-east-57-street-new_york/10b

this apartment (well one a few floors up or down) was $5100 when i lived there in the early 2010's. it's now $4200. rent down 20% from almost 10 years ago, while salaries/all-in comp for elite fields is probably up 20% (or more in some instances, I'm honestly not as in tune with entry level comp for banking/consulting/tech)

the living room can be a 3rd bedroom, that's $1,400 / month average for 3 dudes to live in manhattan making like mid $100's 1st year out of college (finance/tech/whatever), or $2000/month for recently graduated big law types making $250K (you get your own bathroom and a full living room for having to deal with law school). i'm sure this apartment is not the cheapest/most expensive, i just picked this one because i have a great sense of comparability and know what it's like to actually live there (it's nice, doorman building, perfectly acceptable). it's not a hip spot, the neighborhood's kind of boring, but you're a walk away from the offices in midtown and a wasted cab ride away from lots of night life.

people make a lot more today than in the early 2010's, the disposable income of the yuppie crowd. rents down = massive increase in disposable income for playing and getting ahead in the greatest city in the world and that applies at all levels.

think how cheap its getting to share apartments in outer boroughs. sure that's bad for near term NOI, but it also creates an attractive pull.  you can say "well ya but you could get a house or your own apartment for that in XXX", sure, but it's not in NYC.

rents are skyrocketing in the places people are leaving to. like in south Florida for example.

the NYC premium collapsing should help buffer the "exodus"

EDIT: for context, the 2BR I shared in the south immediately after my time in NYC is now $2000 up from $1500. So the spread went from $3,700/month to $2,200/month.

+1 to both -- if you're a young and single person, you will almost certainly be back in NYC in a few years regardless of whether you can do your work from Des Moines -- because then you would have to live in Des Moines.

thepupil inspired me to take a look at my old apartment in NYC. https://bit.ly/2IMTBJ8

The gross rent is maybe two hundred bucks north of where it was when I moved to NYC in 2007. As a 24 year old newly minted lawyer, I was more than happy to apply part of my $160k salary (now $190k for anyone starting NYC Biglaw) to a nice crib. Y'all are crazy if you think people won't want to live in NYC again.

Merkhet and Pupil,

You guys lived in way too fancy digs for me.  I was living on 9th Ave between 55th and 56th or maybe 54th and 55th.  It was a fourth floor walk up (European floors, so it was really 5th).  The place was a dump.  It was a long rectangular one bedroom where the bedroom is on one side and the living room is on the other side.  I was first subletting from a gay guy who taught ballet.  Then rent got too expensive for him.  I moved back to Queens.  Then I talked to the landlord and he let me rent the whole apartment.  I then sublet the place and posted an ad on Craigslist.  30 people showed up all ready to give me first month rent.  It was literally a reality show.  This was a shit apartment on 9th Ave and 50s in Hell's Kitchen near a row of restaurants.  But the rent was $1,900 and we can split it between 2 people and it functions like 2 separate studios on 2 opposite ends.  I first rented it to a female Cornell grad and I quickly realize I was becoming her relationship therapist and she quickly wanted out of the deal.  I was annoyed because I passed on an Apple tech guy in his late 30s because I wanted to live with someone younger.  I probably could've gotten it rented in 2 weeks.  But I was working IB hours and I had the girl's deposit.  So I took my time and ran another open house.  30 people showed up again.  People who work in the theater district, girls who were going to the Alvin Alley dance studios, finance people, and generally people making $50-100k who need a cheap place that was convenient.  I worked on 7th Ave and could just walk over to work without getting on any subways.  I used to ride my road bike in Central Park in the morning or go up the west side highway and go over the GW bridge to Jersey on the weekends.  I would carry my road bike up 5 flights of stairs while strapped to my bike shoes which is probably not smart.  Everyone wanted to sublet.  I winded up subletting to an African American man in his mid 20s who was working at a middle office job at JP Morgan.  So, in my short time, I had a gay Asian American roommate who taught ballet, an Asian American woman who couldn't get over her ex, and an African American man as roommate in a matter or 2 years. 

How bad was the place.  Paint was falling off the ceiling.  The tub needs a mat or it didn't drain well.  The place was old.  The doors to my bedroom didn't go all the way up or down.  My roommates' ceiling was falling off.  But did it matter?  A few things stood out.  I once somehow bought home 3 different girls in one week.  I peaked that week.  I also once convince a girl living in Delaware to board an Amtrak train to come to Penn Station at 7PM.  So she got ready at 7PM and arrived in NYC at midnight and we went out and had a great time.  My apartment was gross and she knew.  But she was coming to go out in New York city where you can stay out till 4AM.  My African American roommate would have random "strange" that he picks up at bars.  I would get up at 3am to use the bathroom and some late 30s woman would be stumbling out of his room to catch a cab back.  It was kind of hilarious.  He was a large tall man with a bit of a stutter.  But he got ripped in 6 months.  Freakish genetics and he always had a smile. So he went from looking like a friendly overweight dude to someone who was tall, dark, and handsome as Adele would say in her SNL skit.  That dude got so much action, it was crazy. 

My red haired Irish friend and I went out and will get a dozen drinks in us and we will bar hop to 4-5 different places.  My friends from HS was in the city.  They were always throwing a party from time to time.  My college friends were all in the city.  I can't imagine being anywhere else.   

Yeah, New York City sucks for now.  But I am willing to bet that 24 years old want to get laid or AT LEAST GET WASTED AND HAVE a SHOT. 

So I was paying $900 and making $75k base with $25k bonus in a middle market IB before my whole group was gutted in early 2009. 

[LC]

Wait, there’s a 9th Avenue?

[rb]

Why don't people talk about biology?  Why don't people talk about the fact that if you are 22-35, single, horny, and promising, you want to be in NYC to meet others just like you.  If you are 25, Asian (East and South), and can code or build complex financial models or just trying to revolutionize the world, you want to be here.  Your odds are slimmer in Wichita.  If you are LGBTQ, this is a great place for you.  If you want Dim Sum, this is the place for you (although capacity leaving the market temporarily).  50% of my thesis is that this is the deepest liquidity pool for dating.  I will continue to bet on biology.

not to mention the pricing from a consumer standpoint is starting to get super attractive in my view:

https://streeteasy.com/building/360-east-57-street-new_york/10b

this apartment (well one a few floors up or down) was $5100 when i lived there in the early 2010's. it's now $4200. rent down 20% from almost 10 years ago, while salaries/all-in comp for elite fields is probably up 20% (or more in some instances, I'm honestly not as in tune with entry level comp for banking/consulting/tech)

the living room can be a 3rd bedroom, that's $1,400 / month average for 3 dudes to live in manhattan making like mid $100's 1st year out of college (finance/tech/whatever), or $2000/month for recently graduated big law types making $250K (you get your own bathroom and a full living room for having to deal with law school). i'm sure this apartment is not the cheapest/most expensive, i just picked this one because i have a great sense of comparability and know what it's like to actually live there (it's nice, doorman building, perfectly acceptable). it's not a hip spot, the neighborhood's kind of boring, but you're a walk away from the offices in midtown and a wasted cab ride away from lots of night life.

people make a lot more today than in the early 2010's, the disposable income of the yuppie crowd. rents down = massive increase in disposable income for playing and getting ahead in the greatest city in the world and that applies at all levels.

think how cheap its getting to share apartments in outer boroughs. sure that's bad for near term NOI, but it also creates an attractive pull.  you can say "well ya but you could get a house or your own apartment for that in XXX", sure, but it's not in NYC.

rents are skyrocketing in the places people are leaving to. like in south Florida for example.

the NYC premium collapsing should help buffer the "exodus"

EDIT: for context, the 2BR I shared in the south immediately after my time in NYC is now $2000 up from $1500. So the spread went from $3,700/month to $2,200/month.

+1 to both -- if you're a young and single person, you will almost certainly be back in NYC in a few years regardless of whether you can do your work from Des Moines -- because then you would have to live in Des Moines.

thepupil inspired me to take a look at my old apartment in NYC. https://bit.ly/2IMTBJ8

The gross rent is maybe two hundred bucks north of where it was when I moved to NYC in 2007. As a 24 year old newly minted lawyer, I was more than happy to apply part of my $160k salary (now $190k for anyone starting NYC Biglaw) to a nice crib. Y'all are crazy if you think people won't want to live in NYC again.

Merkhet and Pupil,

You guys lived in way too fancy digs for me.  I was living on 9th Ave between 55th and 56th or maybe 54th and 55th.  It was a fourth floor walk up (European floors, so it was really 5th).  The place was a dump.  It was a long rectangular one bedroom where the bedroom is on one side and the living room is on the other side.  I was first subletting from a gay guy who taught ballet.  Then rent got too expensive for him.  I moved back to Queens.  Then I talked to the landlord and he let me rent the whole apartment.  I then sublet the place and posted an ad on Craigslist.  30 people showed up all ready to give me first month rent.  It was literally a reality show.  This was a shit apartment on 9th Ave and 50s in Hell's Kitchen near a row of restaurants.  But the rent was $1,900 and we can split it between 2 people and it functions like 2 separate studios on 2 opposite ends.  I first rented it to a female Cornell grad and I quickly realize I was becoming her relationship therapist and she quickly wanted out of the deal.  I was annoyed because I passed on an Apple tech guy in his late 30s because I wanted to live with someone younger.  I probably could've gotten it rented in 2 weeks.  But I was working IB hours and I had the girl's deposit.  So I took my time and ran another open house.  30 people showed up again.  People who work in the theater district, girls who were going to the Alvin Alley dance studios, finance people, and generally people making $50-100k who need a cheap place that was convenient.  I worked on 7th Ave and could just walk over to work without getting on any subways.  I used to ride my road bike in Central Park in the morning or go up the west side highway and go over the GW bridge to Jersey on the weekends.  I would carry my road bike up 5 flights of stairs while strapped to my bike shoes which is probably not smart.  Everyone wanted to sublet.  I winded up subletting to an African American man in his mid 20s who was working at a middle office job at JP Morgan.  So, in my short time, I had a gay Asian American roommate who taught ballet, an Asian American woman who couldn't get over her ex, and an African American man as roommate in a matter or 2 years. 

How bad was the place.  Paint was falling off the ceiling.  The tub needs a mat or it didn't drain well.  The place was old.  The doors to my bedroom didn't go all the way up or down.  My roommates' ceiling was falling off.  But did it matter?  A few things stood out.  I once somehow bought home 3 different girls in one week.  I peaked that week.  I also once convince a girl living in Delaware to board an Amtrak train to come to Penn Station at 7PM.  So she got ready at 7PM and arrived in NYC at midnight and we went out and had a great time.  My apartment was gross and she knew.  But she was coming to go out in New York city where you can stay out till 4AM.  My African American roommate would have random "strange" that he picks up at bars.  I would get up at 3am to use the bathroom and some late 30s woman would be stumbling out of his room to catch a cab back.  It was kind of hilarious.  He was a large tall man with a bit of a stutter.  But he got ripped in 6 months.  Freakish genetics and he always had a smile. So he went from looking like a friendly overweight dude to someone who was tall, dark, and handsome as Adele would say in her SNL skit.  That dude got so much action, it was crazy. 

My red haired Irish friend and I went out and will get a dozen drinks in us and we will bar hop to 4-5 different places.  My friends from HS was in the city.  They were always throwing a party from time to time.  My college friends were all in the city.  I can't imagine being anywhere else.   

Yeah, New York City sucks for now.  But I am willing to bet that 24 years old want to get laid or AT LEAST GET WASTED AND HAVE a SHOT. 

So I was paying $900 and making $75k base with $25k bonus in a middle market IB before my whole group was gutted in early 2009.

Ahhhh.... to be 24 again! What a life!

But 75/25? Seriously? I thought you worked at Citi.

[cubsfan]

^ Ok BG2008 - that settles it!  I'm moving to NY and want to be your roommate!

[BG2008]

Why don't people talk about biology?  Why don't people talk about the fact that if you are 22-35, single, horny, and promising, you want to be in NYC to meet others just like you.  If you are 25, Asian (East and South), and can code or build complex financial models or just trying to revolutionize the world, you want to be here.  Your odds are slimmer in Wichita.  If you are LGBTQ, this is a great place for you.  If you want Dim Sum, this is the place for you (although capacity leaving the market temporarily).  50% of my thesis is that this is the deepest liquidity pool for dating.  I will continue to bet on biology.

not to mention the pricing from a consumer standpoint is starting to get super attractive in my view:

https://streeteasy.com/building/360-east-57-street-new_york/10b

this apartment (well one a few floors up or down) was $5100 when i lived there in the early 2010's. it's now $4200. rent down 20% from almost 10 years ago, while salaries/all-in comp for elite fields is probably up 20% (or more in some instances, I'm honestly not as in tune with entry level comp for banking/consulting/tech)

the living room can be a 3rd bedroom, that's $1,400 / month average for 3 dudes to live in manhattan making like mid $100's 1st year out of college (finance/tech/whatever), or $2000/month for recently graduated big law types making $250K (you get your own bathroom and a full living room for having to deal with law school). i'm sure this apartment is not the cheapest/most expensive, i just picked this one because i have a great sense of comparability and know what it's like to actually live there (it's nice, doorman building, perfectly acceptable). it's not a hip spot, the neighborhood's kind of boring, but you're a walk away from the offices in midtown and a wasted cab ride away from lots of night life.

people make a lot more today than in the early 2010's, the disposable income of the yuppie crowd. rents down = massive increase in disposable income for playing and getting ahead in the greatest city in the world and that applies at all levels.

think how cheap its getting to share apartments in outer boroughs. sure that's bad for near term NOI, but it also creates an attractive pull.  you can say "well ya but you could get a house or your own apartment for that in XXX", sure, but it's not in NYC.

rents are skyrocketing in the places people are leaving to. like in south Florida for example.

the NYC premium collapsing should help buffer the "exodus"

EDIT: for context, the 2BR I shared in the south immediately after my time in NYC is now $2000 up from $1500. So the spread went from $3,700/month to $2,200/month.

+1 to both -- if you're a young and single person, you will almost certainly be back in NYC in a few years regardless of whether you can do your work from Des Moines -- because then you would have to live in Des Moines.

thepupil inspired me to take a look at my old apartment in NYC. https://bit.ly/2IMTBJ8

The gross rent is maybe two hundred bucks north of where it was when I moved to NYC in 2007. As a 24 year old newly minted lawyer, I was more than happy to apply part of my $160k salary (now $190k for anyone starting NYC Biglaw) to a nice crib. Y'all are crazy if you think people won't want to live in NYC again.

Merkhet and Pupil,

You guys lived in way too fancy digs for me.  I was living on 9th Ave between 55th and 56th or maybe 54th and 55th.  It was a fourth floor walk up (European floors, so it was really 5th).  The place was a dump.  It was a long rectangular one bedroom where the bedroom is on one side and the living room is on the other side.  I was first subletting from a gay guy who taught ballet.  Then rent got too expensive for him.  I moved back to Queens.  Then I talked to the landlord and he let me rent the whole apartment.  I then sublet the place and posted an ad on Craigslist.  30 people showed up all ready to give me first month rent.  It was literally a reality show.  This was a shit apartment on 9th Ave and 50s in Hell's Kitchen near a row of restaurants.  But the rent was $1,900 and we can split it between 2 people and it functions like 2 separate studios on 2 opposite ends.  I first rented it to a female Cornell grad and I quickly realize I was becoming her relationship therapist and she quickly wanted out of the deal.  I was annoyed because I passed on an Apple tech guy in his late 30s because I wanted to live with someone younger.  I probably could've gotten it rented in 2 weeks.  But I was working IB hours and I had the girl's deposit.  So I took my time and ran another open house.  30 people showed up again.  People who work in the theater district, girls who were going to the Alvin Alley dance studios, finance people, and generally people making $50-100k who need a cheap place that was convenient.  I worked on 7th Ave and could just walk over to work without getting on any subways.  I used to ride my road bike in Central Park in the morning or go up the west side highway and go over the GW bridge to Jersey on the weekends.  I would carry my road bike up 5 flights of stairs while strapped to my bike shoes which is probably not smart.  Everyone wanted to sublet.  I winded up subletting to an African American man in his mid 20s who was working at a middle office job at JP Morgan.  So, in my short time, I had a gay Asian American roommate who taught ballet, an Asian American woman who couldn't get over her ex, and an African American man as roommate in a matter or 2 years. 

How bad was the place.  Paint was falling off the ceiling.  The tub needs a mat or it didn't drain well.  The place was old.  The doors to my bedroom didn't go all the way up or down.  My roommates' ceiling was falling off.  But did it matter?  A few things stood out.  I once somehow bought home 3 different girls in one week.  I peaked that week.  I also once convince a girl living in Delaware to board an Amtrak train to come to Penn Station at 7PM.  So she got ready at 7PM and arrived in NYC at midnight and we went out and had a great time.  My apartment was gross and she knew.  But she was coming to go out in New York city where you can stay out till 4AM.  My African American roommate would have random "strange" that he picks up at bars.  I would get up at 3am to use the bathroom and some late 30s woman would be stumbling out of his room to catch a cab back.  It was kind of hilarious.  He was a large tall man with a bit of a stutter.  But he got ripped in 6 months.  Freakish genetics and he always had a smile. So he went from looking like a friendly overweight dude to someone who was tall, dark, and handsome as Adele would say in her SNL skit.  That dude got so much action, it was crazy. 

My red haired Irish friend and I went out and will get a dozen drinks in us and we will bar hop to 4-5 different places.  My friends from HS was in the city.  They were always throwing a party from time to time.  My college friends were all in the city.  I can't imagine being anywhere else.   

Yeah, New York City sucks for now.  But I am willing to bet that 24 years old want to get laid or AT LEAST GET WASTED AND HAVE a SHOT. 

So I was paying $900 and making $75k base with $25k bonus in a middle market IB before my whole group was gutted in early 2009.

Ahhhh.... to be 24 again! What a life!

But 75/25? Seriously? I thought you worked at Citi.

I was in the group that did deals from $20mm to $1bn.  The IBD boys downtown made all the loot.  Their going rate that year was $65k plus about $100-110k.  My base was higher, but my upside on the bonus was much lower.  Part of it was because my group was full of politics and drama without the deal closing ability of the IBD.  But I learned so much by studying what not to do during that time.  I was getting 2-5 phone calls from desperate developers every week back then.  I guess I pass on a lot of opportunity today because I saw so many ways that you blow up in RE.  But the structure was my MD and 2 analysts.  My MD let me handle a lot of the incoming calls.  So I was functioning more like an idiotic VP with no experience.  What a way to drink from the fire hose! 

[BG2008]

Why don't people talk about biology?  Why don't people talk about the fact that if you are 22-35, single, horny, and promising, you want to be in NYC to meet others just like you.  If you are 25, Asian (East and South), and can code or build complex financial models or just trying to revolutionize the world, you want to be here.  Your odds are slimmer in Wichita.  If you are LGBTQ, this is a great place for you.  If you want Dim Sum, this is the place for you (although capacity leaving the market temporarily).  50% of my thesis is that this is the deepest liquidity pool for dating.  I will continue to bet on biology.

not to mention the pricing from a consumer standpoint is starting to get super attractive in my view:

https://streeteasy.com/building/360-east-57-street-new_york/10b

this apartment (well one a few floors up or down) was $5100 when i lived there in the early 2010's. it's now $4200. rent down 20% from almost 10 years ago, while salaries/all-in comp for elite fields is probably up 20% (or more in some instances, I'm honestly not as in tune with entry level comp for banking/consulting/tech)

the living room can be a 3rd bedroom, that's $1,400 / month average for 3 dudes to live in manhattan making like mid $100's 1st year out of college (finance/tech/whatever), or $2000/month for recently graduated big law types making $250K (you get your own bathroom and a full living room for having to deal with law school). i'm sure this apartment is not the cheapest/most expensive, i just picked this one because i have a great sense of comparability and know what it's like to actually live there (it's nice, doorman building, perfectly acceptable). it's not a hip spot, the neighborhood's kind of boring, but you're a walk away from the offices in midtown and a wasted cab ride away from lots of night life.

people make a lot more today than in the early 2010's, the disposable income of the yuppie crowd. rents down = massive increase in disposable income for playing and getting ahead in the greatest city in the world and that applies at all levels.

think how cheap its getting to share apartments in outer boroughs. sure that's bad for near term NOI, but it also creates an attractive pull.  you can say "well ya but you could get a house or your own apartment for that in XXX", sure, but it's not in NYC.

rents are skyrocketing in the places people are leaving to. like in south Florida for example.

the NYC premium collapsing should help buffer the "exodus"

EDIT: for context, the 2BR I shared in the south immediately after my time in NYC is now $2000 up from $1500. So the spread went from $3,700/month to $2,200/month.

+1 to both -- if you're a young and single person, you will almost certainly be back in NYC in a few years regardless of whether you can do your work from Des Moines -- because then you would have to live in Des Moines.

thepupil inspired me to take a look at my old apartment in NYC. https://bit.ly/2IMTBJ8

The gross rent is maybe two hundred bucks north of where it was when I moved to NYC in 2007. As a 24 year old newly minted lawyer, I was more than happy to apply part of my $160k salary (now $190k for anyone starting NYC Biglaw) to a nice crib. Y'all are crazy if you think people won't want to live in NYC again.

Merkhet and Pupil,

You guys lived in way too fancy digs for me.  I was living on 9th Ave between 55th and 56th or maybe 54th and 55th.  It was a fourth floor walk up (European floors, so it was really 5th).  The place was a dump.  It was a long rectangular one bedroom where the bedroom is on one side and the living room is on the other side.  I was first subletting from a gay guy who taught ballet.  Then rent got too expensive for him.  I moved back to Queens.  Then I talked to the landlord and he let me rent the whole apartment.  I then sublet the place and posted an ad on Craigslist.  30 people showed up all ready to give me first month rent.  It was literally a reality show.  This was a shit apartment on 9th Ave and 50s in Hell's Kitchen near a row of restaurants.  But the rent was $1,900 and we can split it between 2 people and it functions like 2 separate studios on 2 opposite ends.  I first rented it to a female Cornell grad and I quickly realize I was becoming her relationship therapist and she quickly wanted out of the deal.  I was annoyed because I passed on an Apple tech guy in his late 30s because I wanted to live with someone younger.  I probably could've gotten it rented in 2 weeks.  But I was working IB hours and I had the girl's deposit.  So I took my time and ran another open house.  30 people showed up again.  People who work in the theater district, girls who were going to the Alvin Alley dance studios, finance people, and generally people making $50-100k who need a cheap place that was convenient.  I worked on 7th Ave and could just walk over to work without getting on any subways.  I used to ride my road bike in Central Park in the morning or go up the west side highway and go over the GW bridge to Jersey on the weekends.  I would carry my road bike up 5 flights of stairs while strapped to my bike shoes which is probably not smart.  Everyone wanted to sublet.  I winded up subletting to an African American man in his mid 20s who was working at a middle office job at JP Morgan.  So, in my short time, I had a gay Asian American roommate who taught ballet, an Asian American woman who couldn't get over her ex, and an African American man as roommate in a matter or 2 years. 

How bad was the place.  Paint was falling off the ceiling.  The tub needs a mat or it didn't drain well.  The place was old.  The doors to my bedroom didn't go all the way up or down.  My roommates' ceiling was falling off.  But did it matter?  A few things stood out.  I once somehow bought home 3 different girls in one week.  I peaked that week.  I also once convince a girl living in Delaware to board an Amtrak train to come to Penn Station at 7PM.  So she got ready at 7PM and arrived in NYC at midnight and we went out and had a great time.  My apartment was gross and she knew.  But she was coming to go out in New York city where you can stay out till 4AM.  My African American roommate would have random "strange" that he picks up at bars.  I would get up at 3am to use the bathroom and some late 30s woman would be stumbling out of his room to catch a cab back.  It was kind of hilarious.  He was a large tall man with a bit of a stutter.  But he got ripped in 6 months.  Freakish genetics and he always had a smile. So he went from looking like a friendly overweight dude to someone who was tall, dark, and handsome as Adele would say in her SNL skit.  That dude got so much action, it was crazy. 

My red haired Irish friend and I went out and will get a dozen drinks in us and we will bar hop to 4-5 different places.  My friends from HS was in the city.  They were always throwing a party from time to time.  My college friends were all in the city.  I can't imagine being anywhere else.   

Yeah, New York City sucks for now.  But I am willing to bet that 24 years old want to get laid or AT LEAST GET WASTED AND HAVE a SHOT. 

So I was paying $900 and making $75k base with $25k bonus in a middle market IB before my whole group was gutted in early 2009.

Ahhhh.... to be 24 again! What a life!

But 75/25? Seriously? I thought you worked at Citi.

I was in the group that did deals from $20mm to $1bn.  The IBD boys downtown made all the loot.  Their going rate that year was $65k plus about $100-110k.  My base was higher, but my upside on the bonus was much lower.  Part of it was because my group was full of politics and drama without the deal closing ability of the IBD.  But I learned so much by studying what not to do during that time.  I was getting 2-5 phone calls from desperate developers every week back then.  I guess I pass on a lot of opportunity today because I saw so many ways that you blow up in RE.  But the structure was my MD and 2 analysts.  My MD let me handle a lot of the incoming calls.  So I was functioning more like an idiotic VP with no experience.  What a way to drink from the fire hose!

I had to learn how to live on a budget on $100k.  Not like Merkhet and Pupil.  Those guys were the ballers stealing girls from me.  Life was kind of like "How I met your mother."  or at least I like to pretend it was like that.  But we didn't have as much free time.