Author Topic: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR  (Read 6145 times)

bergman104

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #30 on: April 26, 2020, 09:56:26 PM »
^At first glance, investing in Mexican airports, especially at this point, appears ballsy. Good luck.
Something to consider if you want to play this: it seems ASR, because of the larger exposure to international travel and tourism, has the most to lose in the short to mid term but it (if it) stands to gain the most when the global economy recovers while the peso depreciates.

Thanks for your thoughts. I agree with some of the previous posts that currency risk and the duration of COVID seem to be the biggest sticking points.


samwise

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #31 on: April 26, 2020, 10:08:54 PM »
thanks for bringing up the idea. The risks below are just from a quick read. Please correct me if I am wrong here.

The major risk, as you said, is regulation. And the new president of Mexico may not be friendly in the setting of next 5 year plan and rates. It can be taken back or transferred, and in the best case will end in 28 years.

The other risk is that this is a concession, so not sure you should think of it as a compounder.  Are you sure the stock should be more valuable after 10 years? Possibly air travel will grow (after COVID), but the remaining cashflows will be only 18 years. Seemingly sure-shot contracts can end painfully as Neustar found out. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-neustar-fcc/neustar-faces-loss-of-contract-after-fcc-staff-recommendation-idUSKBN0M02E220150304

thepupil

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #32 on: April 27, 2020, 06:28:00 AM »
Too bad you couldn't bother to look at some of the other exchanges, or over a time frame longer than 3 months.
SD

yep, it sure is a shame. I haven't been looking at any ideas or posting about any companies/ideas over these past few months. just can't be bothered. just too lazy and my time horizon is simply too short.

if only i worked as hard as you and found and posted about all those super high quality easy multi-baggers for the benefit of the group.

if only i could inspire others by somehow making 3x year to date swing trading the market.

I'm just not as smart as you. I don't possess your alchemist like trading skills that turn the dogshit canadian energy stocks that you post about into ridiculous gains.

One day, maybe I'll learn, maybe if I look at those other exchanges.

What exchanges would you suggest as a start? enlighten the mortals among you.

Just so that it might inspire others ...

My partners and I have done very well swing-trading the markets. So far we're up roughly 3x YTD, on a little skill, and mostly luck.
Comes normality again, the cash yield on our FI portfolio will be beyond stupid.




SharperDingaan

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #33 on: April 27, 2020, 06:39:05 AM »
You asked for value proposition, I just refused.
Could care less what others think.
Have a good day.

SD

thepupil

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #34 on: April 27, 2020, 06:50:06 AM »
silly me for asking for investment ideas on an investment forum when someone said they had better ideas.

this follows a consistent pattern of you playing it close to the vest when asked for more information. again, unless something is illiquid, I do not understand why one would not share their ideas or strategies. if you already have a position on, it is in your interest to share.

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/what-is-considered-a-win-for-trading-inout-sp500/msg398903/#msg398903

I have never understood your posts and not wished to to discuss until now. Resuming the prior policy.

To be clear, I am not trying to claim superiority. I have lost a lot of money this year and you can see why from the things I post about. you are apparently up 3x and all your positions are house money. I have no clue how and I have concluded that that will remain the case.

apologies for filling up the airport thread here.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2020, 06:51:59 AM by thepupil »

formthirteen

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #35 on: April 29, 2020, 05:16:50 PM »
These stocks seemed interesting until I had a look at the attached USD vs Mexican Peso graph.

Spekulatius

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #36 on: April 29, 2020, 05:45:01 PM »
These stocks seemed interesting until I had a look at the attached USD vs Mexican Peso graph.
Another way to look at this is that interest rate for MXN is currently 6.5% vs nearly zip for USD or Euro. This means that forward looking Mr Market expects the Peso to lose ~6% annually relative to the USD or Euro.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Pelagic

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #37 on: August 13, 2020, 07:30:09 AM »
Read through this this morning, thought I'd share it here. A decent industry primer on airports if nothing else.

https://www.broyhillasset.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/BAM-Airport-Thesis-2020.08-FINAL.pdf

samwise

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #38 on: August 13, 2020, 02:04:39 PM »
Read through this this morning, thought I'd share it here. A decent industry primer on airports if nothing else.

https://www.broyhillasset.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/BAM-Airport-Thesis-2020.08-FINAL.pdf

Thanks for sharing. It is ultimately a bet on the underlying passenger growth, translating into profits in a good regulatory environment.

There are other bets exposing you to the same underlying passenger growth: TDG and HEI (and PCP within BRK, although that is more sensitive to new plane deliveries I think). Another option is to buy the loyalty programs, although those have turned out to have their own risks.

So given these choices, why would one favor the Mexican airports today?
1. They are cheaper on EV/EBITDA apparently
2. They are exposed to regulatory risk
3. They have a limited life on the concession (~28 years), vs say TDG which has a 70 year life once a part is accepted as part of an aircraft design.
4. They are not diversified over global passenger miles, so there is country specific and even city/airport specific risks.
5. As hard assets in emerging countries, they face expropriation risks.

Gamecock-YT

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Re: Mexican Airports- PAC, OMAB, and ASR
« Reply #39 on: August 13, 2020, 07:49:28 PM »
Airports always seems like you are going to beholden to bureaucracy.