Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: shalab on December 22, 2018, 08:16:55 AM

Title: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on December 22, 2018, 08:16:55 AM
The markets tanked after the Fed chair communicated about relying on models and pretty much guaranteeing rate hikes next year. The yield curve has flattened further - https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield

Let us use this poll to figure out what the group is thinking
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: EliG on December 22, 2018, 08:48:29 AM
Yes, it had to be done, to assert Fed's independence after Trump's meddling on twitter.

Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Cardboard on December 24, 2018, 10:17:35 AM
LOL!

If that is the true reason then you prove my claim that Powell is an idiot.

Data is what should count, not making some assertion. Too many people depend on proper decision making.

My assumption is that their model is way too static and fails to take into consideration global impact on the economy or things like a very strong USD.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Nomad on December 24, 2018, 10:44:03 AM
I'm reminded here of the possibly apocryphal quotation from Zhou Enlai when asked about the impact of the French Revolution: It's too soon to tell.

That being said, I do think there has been too much focus on the interest rate normalization and less focus on the arguably more important process of balance sheet run-off. I think there now appears to be a general consensus among central bankers that quantitative easing tends to create significant distortions in asset prices. And they're probably right - unfortunately, much of the cash that has been pouring into the system since the financial crisis has not been used for productive investment. Just look at all of the companies buying back their stock instead of making capital expenditures and funding R&D. This spending does nothing to increase the size of the company's pie; it merely reshuffles who gets the forks. Meanwhile, on the ground, wage and productivity growth continue to be weak by historical standards.

I think the Powell et al would rather see short term pain in asset prices if it results in greater long-term stability for the system as a whole and have been tightening accordingly. In my personal opinion, that is probably the right calculation, but as with anything in markets, nobody knows.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Liberty on December 24, 2018, 11:02:36 AM
How about not having an opinion because fed policy is outside my circle of competence? I'd guess it's outside of the circle of many others here, including some of those with the strongest opinions.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: LC on December 24, 2018, 11:09:02 AM
How about not having an opinion because fed policy is outside my circle of competence? I'd guess it's outside of the circle of many others here, including some of those with the strongest opinions.

I don't think you have to be an expert here. To use the WB quote about being approximately correct:

From a birds eye view the economy has been doing great under a low interest environment for what, 7 years? Therefore, time to start raising rates. That's my "approximately correct", 1000 ft view.

Regarding the minutiae as to "well they should've done XYZ 6 months ago or whatnot", well just seems like noise...trying to figure out if the guy on the scale is 200 lbs or 205 lbs.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Liberty on December 24, 2018, 11:20:12 AM
How about not having an opinion because fed policy is outside my circle of competence? I'd guess it's outside of the circle of many others here, including some of those with the strongest opinions.

I don't think you have to be an expert here. To use the WB quote about being approximately correct:

From a birds eye view the economy has been doing great under a low interest environment for what, 7 years? Therefore, time to start raising rates. That's my "approximately correct", 1000 ft view.

Regarding the minutiae as to "well they should've done XYZ 6 months ago or whatnot", well just seems like noise...trying to figure out if the guy on the scale is 200 lbs or 205 lbs.

Oh, I think you can have a 5-sec opinion like that. But to have an informed opinion on macro-economics, it's something you have to actively study for a while, and I haven't, and I don't think many here have.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on December 29, 2018, 08:52:23 PM
I am surprised by how there are still more votes in support of the Fed. There are some that want even more rate hikes in 2019 - either the votes are politically motivated or people don't see what is going on. The 2018 economic gain in the US was because of the one time tax cut.

Canada has kept interest rates low (1.8%) eventhough there is a housing bubble.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/article-canadas-house-price-data-centre/

China has been cutting interest rates as well. Euro is at 0%.

Oil price futures 2019 - flat compared to 2018:

https://longforecast.com/oil-price-today-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-brent-wti

Housing market cooling in 2019:

https://therealdeal.com/2018/12/26/us-housing-market-will-continue-to-cool-in-2019-redfin/

Car market under pressure:

https://www.bworldonline.com/mild-recovery-in-car-market-seen-in-2019-but-pressures-remain/
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on December 30, 2018, 12:42:15 AM
Well, the poll does not tie well with the activity level in the Druckenmiller and Trump were right (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/druckenmiller-and-trump-were-right/) topic, right? [ : - ) ]

Getting back to "normal" interest territory in the US is not a bad thing at all. Yes, it creates volatility etc. [- perhaps even some pain some places -] in some markets right now, but then you avoid a multiplier effect on the pain now instead of it gets worse at a later point in time. [I think Viking has mentioned that earlier somewhere.]

It also - gradually - brings back the interest tool in the toolbox of the FED.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on December 30, 2018, 07:58:53 AM
John - you are right that all else being equal, it is good for the fed to have the tools at their disposal.

However, it is not clear to me that they understand the economic machine and the interaction between various components.

A fed chief once said Ray Dalio had better statistics than the federal reserve, so I will be watching Ray Dalio closely.

Europe looks like it will have a secular decline for a long period of time - here is a projection of Germany's population in 2050.

https://www.pop.org/germany-to-shrink-by-10-million-people-by-2050/


Well, the poll does not tie well with the activity level in the Druckenmiller and Trump were right (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/druckenmiller-and-trump-were-right/) topic, right? [ : - ) ]

Getting back to "normal" interest territory in the US is not a bad thing at all. Yes, it creates volatility etc. [- perhaps even some pain some places -] in some markets right now, but then you avoid a multiplier effect on the pain now instead of it gets worse at a later point in time. [I think Viking has mentioned that earlier somewhere.]

It also - gradually - brings back the interest tool in the toolbox of the FED.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on December 30, 2018, 08:02:31 PM
Ray Dalio on the fed rate hikes

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/billionaire-ray-dalio-fed-raised-rates-to-a-point-where-theyre-hurting-asset-prices.html

    Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio argues the Fed has raised rates to a point where they’re hurting asset prices.
    The central bank needs to start looking at monetary policy’s impact on asset prices before economic conditions, Dalio says.
    Dalio also laughs off the notion that the Fed needs to raise rates so it would have room to make cuts if the economy were to take a major downturn.

John - you are right that all else being equal, it is good for the fed to have the tools at their disposal.

However, it is not clear to me that they understand the economic machine and the interaction between various components.

A fed chief once said Ray Dalio had better statistics than the federal reserve, so I will be watching Ray Dalio closely.

Europe looks like it will have a secular decline for a long period of time - here is a projection of Germany's population in 2050.

https://www.pop.org/germany-to-shrink-by-10-million-people-by-2050/


Well, the poll does not tie well with the activity level in the Druckenmiller and Trump were right (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/druckenmiller-and-trump-were-right/) topic, right? [ : - ) ]

Getting back to "normal" interest territory in the US is not a bad thing at all. Yes, it creates volatility etc. [- perhaps even some pain some places -] in some markets right now, but then you avoid a multiplier effect on the pain now instead of it gets worse at a later point in time. [I think Viking has mentioned that earlier somewhere.]

It also - gradually - brings back the interest tool in the toolbox of the FED.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Gregmal on December 30, 2018, 08:39:36 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/28/el-erian-hold-the-fed-accountable-for-its-messaging-not-rate-hike.html

This sums it up. I don't disagree with the hike, but the communication sucks and is tone deaf. Which IMO is Powell's way of trying to play politics and stick it to Trump....Which is more or less a "way to go asshole, stick it to Trump at the expense of the rest of the country"...
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on December 31, 2018, 12:51:46 AM
Ray Dalio on the fed rate hikes

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/billionaire-ray-dalio-fed-raised-rates-to-a-point-where-theyre-hurting-asset-prices.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/billionaire-ray-dalio-fed-raised-rates-to-a-point-where-theyre-hurting-asset-prices.html)

    Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio argues the Fed has raised rates to a point where they’re hurting asset prices.
    The central bank needs to start looking at monetary policy’s impact on asset prices before economic conditions, Dalio says.
    Dalio also laughs off the notion that the Fed needs to raise rates so it would have room to make cuts if the economy were to take a major downturn. ...

shalab,

I actually had to read the quotation of Mr. Dalio three times and think a bit about it before posting this. Taking it verbatim [the second line], it could be understood as Mr. Dalio just wants the FED to divert from its mandate. [And I don't think that it should be understood that way, actually, but that was how I read it while reading it the first time.] After reading it the third time, I think it means, that asset prices effects from FED rate decisions are a logical and natural part of considering the total effects on the economy via the feedback loops to the real economy from the financial markets, and thus such effects should be taken into consideration under the FED's interest rate decisions. [And that is actually also what I get from reading Cardboard's last post in this topic.]

The reason for this is there exist feedback loops from asset prices to the activity level in the real economy [i.e.: think real estate].

If this is what Mr. Dalio meant, then I think every CoBF member agree on that.

With regard to Mr. Dalio's last sentence: I think that should be read exactly the same way as what I have phrased above about the first two lines. It is a fact [at least to me], that it must  easier for the FED to be downward flexible with interest rates, if you already are in an interest rate territory, where being downward flexible with interest rates don't bring in a territory, where interest rates doesn't bring you in a territory, where the FED start screwing up healthy incentives & things by creating a negative price on money. So, in short: Yes, it's "just" a side effect, but to me certainly not a laughable one.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Edit: And after reading it the fourth time, I just think : "Yes, naturally, Mr. Dalio is just yet another money manager with his personal incentives."
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on December 31, 2018, 02:29:26 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/28/el-erian-hold-the-fed-accountable-for-its-messaging-not-rate-hike.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/28/el-erian-hold-the-fed-accountable-for-its-messaging-not-rate-hike.html)

This sums it up. I don't disagree with the hike, but the communication sucks and is tone deaf. Which IMO is Powell's way of trying to play politics and stick it to Trump....Which is more or less a "way to go asshole, stick it to Trump at the expense of the rest of the country"...

Greg,

Personally, I think : "Is Mr. Powell really that bad at communication?" [But that's naturally just me. ...]

To me, in short, being FED chairman is a Uriah post (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uriah_the_Hittite). [Please don't take that too seriously about who screws who! [ : - ) ]]

Also, CNBC - Federal Reserve [June 13th 2018] : Fed’s Powell says he will begin news conferences following each meeting starting in January (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/feds-powell-says-he-will-begin-press-conferences-following-each-meeting-starting-in-january.html).
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on December 31, 2018, 09:49:57 AM
John, appreciate your thoughts

Dalio could be wrong overall - but Dalio is right about asset price weakness.

Asset prices have contracted in the last quarter - in all major metros from LA, DC, Boston, Chicago and Seattle. As we know, the stock prices have also dropped.

https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center

Overall, the projection for next year is for tepid rise of about 3%. One can compare against the asset prices in Canada as an example:

https://www.livingin-canada.com/house-prices-canada.html

Regarding rate hikes next year:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/31/we-are-at-neutral-rate-fed-shouldnt-go-higher-strategist.html

Economy activity contracts in December:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-31/humming-u-s-factories-end-2018-on-a-sour-note-amid-trade-war?srnd=premium

Ray Dalio on the fed rate hikes

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/billionaire-ray-dalio-fed-raised-rates-to-a-point-where-theyre-hurting-asset-prices.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/billionaire-ray-dalio-fed-raised-rates-to-a-point-where-theyre-hurting-asset-prices.html)

    Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio argues the Fed has raised rates to a point where they’re hurting asset prices.
    The central bank needs to start looking at monetary policy’s impact on asset prices before economic conditions, Dalio says.
    Dalio also laughs off the notion that the Fed needs to raise rates so it would have room to make cuts if the economy were to take a major downturn. ...

shalab,

I actually had to read the quotation of Mr. Dalio three times and think a bit about it before posting this. Taking it verbatim [the second line], it could be understood as Mr. Dalio just wants the FED to divert from its mandate. [And I don't think that it should be understood that way, actually, but that was how I read it while reading it the first time.] After reading it the third time, I think it means, that asset prices effects from FED rate decisions are a logical and natural part of considering the total effects on the economy via the feedback loops to the real economy from the financial markets, and thus such effects should be taken into consideration under the FED's interest rate decisions. [And that is actually also what I get from reading Cardboard's last post in this topic.]

The reason for this is there exist feedback loops from asset prices to the activity level in the real economy [i.e.: think real estate].

If this is what Mr. Dalio meant, then I think every CoBF member agree on that.

With regard to Mr. Dalio's last sentence: I think that should be read exactly the same way as what I have phrased above about the first two lines. It is a fact [at least to me], that it must  easier for the FED to be downward flexible with interest rates, if you already are in an interest rate territory, where being downward flexible with interest rates don't bring in a territory, where interest rates doesn't bring you in a territory, where the FED start screwing up healthy incentives & things by creating a negative price on money. So, in short: Yes, it's "just" a side effect, but to me certainly not a laughable one.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Edit: And after reading it the fourth time, I just think : "Yes, naturally, Mr. Dalio is just yet another money manager with his personal incentives."
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on December 31, 2018, 01:14:49 PM
The Redfin chart shows some seasonal cyclicity for real estate prices, but no proof of a downturn yet. It is normal for RE to rise in early in the year and and recede a bit in fall. It‘s clear that RE has slowed, but I don’t think this is visible from the charts yet. Besides that, the Fed supposedly doesn’t care about asset prices, also I think it should at least to take into account housing prices, because they translate into cost of living for the majority of people ( 2/3 of the people in the US own rather than rent). The only central bank that actively looks at RE prices (to my knowledge)  is the central bank of Hongkong, probably, because RE is such an important part of their economy.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: rkbabang on December 31, 2018, 08:59:41 PM
How about not having an opinion because fed policy is outside my circle of competence? I'd guess it's outside of the circle of many others here, including some of those with the strongest opinions.

It's outside the feds circle of competence too. Interests rates, the time value of money, are a market phenomenon. You might as well have a government board set the daily price of Avocados.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: LC on December 31, 2018, 10:03:54 PM
How about not having an opinion because fed policy is outside my circle of competence? I'd guess it's outside of the circle of many others here, including some of those with the strongest opinions.

It's outside the feds circle of competence too. Interests rates, the time value of money, are a market phenomenon. You might as well have a government board set the daily price of Avocados.

Can I ask your opinion on the Fed slashing interest rates in the 2009-2013 period. This was most certainly not a market phenomenon, as credit was drying up. The Fed's action essentially re-started the US economy and prevented a depression. Beautiful deleveraging and all that. Do you think they were wrong, or lucky, or something else?
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: maybe4less on January 01, 2019, 12:33:51 PM
How about not having an opinion because fed policy is outside my circle of competence? I'd guess it's outside of the circle of many others here, including some of those with the strongest opinions.

It's outside the feds circle of competence too. Interests rates, the time value of money, are a market phenomenon. You might as well have a government board set the daily price of Avocados.

Can I ask your opinion on the Fed slashing interest rates in the 2009-2013 period. This was most certainly not a market phenomenon, as credit was drying up. The Fed's action essentially re-started the US economy and prevented a depression. Beautiful deleveraging and all that. Do you think they were wrong, or lucky, or something else?

It was a market phenomenon. The demand for risk-free assets soared, pushing down interest rates. The Fed was following/supporting that.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: rkbabang on January 02, 2019, 06:56:59 AM
How about not having an opinion because fed policy is outside my circle of competence? I'd guess it's outside of the circle of many others here, including some of those with the strongest opinions.

It's outside the feds circle of competence too. Interests rates, the time value of money, are a market phenomenon. You might as well have a government board set the daily price of Avocados.

Can I ask your opinion on the Fed slashing interest rates in the 2009-2013 period. This was most certainly not a market phenomenon, as credit was drying up. The Fed's action essentially re-started the US economy and prevented a depression. Beautiful deleveraging and all that. Do you think they were wrong, or lucky, or something else?

Nothing the fed does is a market phenomenon.  It is government setting rates. No different from the USSR setting prices in their economy either by their own opinions or sometimes by looking at ads in London Newspapers. If the rate is set by the fed then it isn't being set by the market. If the price of Avocados was set by a government board and you asked me "What do you think about the Federal Avocado Board reducing prices in 2009-2013?  Did they do the right thing?"   My answer would be the same.  I don't know. The market should be setting the rate not some board of bureaucrats/experts.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 02, 2019, 09:10:06 PM
Market expecting the fed to stay pat on rates - with 80% probability

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-are-betting-that-the-fed-hits-pause-on-rate-hikes-11546449520?mod=hp_lead_pos2#comments_sector

Apple CEO also came out and said the dollar appreciation is impacting profits.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: LC on January 02, 2019, 11:11:56 PM
Nothing the fed does is a market phenomenon.  It is government setting rates. No different from the USSR setting prices in their economy either by their own opinions or sometimes by looking at ads in London Newspapers. If the rate is set by the fed then it isn't being set by the market. If the price of Avocados was set by a government board and you asked me "What do you think about the Federal Avocado Board reducing prices in 2009-2013?  Did they do the right thing?"   My answer would be the same.  I don't know. The market should be setting the rate not some board of bureaucrats/experts.
My point is that it was a period of time where market pricing would have made things worse.

Credit was incredibly tight. If the market had set rates, they would have risen or stayed at spiked levels:

https://voxeu.org/article/credit-conditions-and-great-trade-collapse

Interbank rates (here, the one-month rate) spiked in September 2008 in many economies, as banks became extremely averse to lending and the supply of financing tightened. There are nevertheless key differences in the severity and timing of the credit crunch. In countries such as Germany and Bulgaria, the interbank rate was on an upward trend until an abrupt reversal in November 2008. In contrast, these rates were declining from a much earlier date in Canada and Singapore, reflecting earlier interventions made by central bankers there to cope with the impending downturn.


Our results suggest that the impact of credit conditions was sizeable. The decline in trade volumes would have been about twice as large in percentage terms had interbank rates instead remained at the high levels of September 2008 throughout the rest of our sample period.




Central Banker's/Avocado's decision to cut rates has been universally acclaimed and is evidence of a Central Bank's positive contribution.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: JimBowerman on January 03, 2019, 12:29:44 PM


Nothing the fed does is a market phenomenon.  It is government setting rates. No different from the USSR setting prices in their economy either by their own opinions or sometimes by looking at ads in London Newspapers. If the rate is set by the fed then it isn't being set by the market. If the price of Avocados was set by a government board and you asked me "What do you think about the Federal Avocado Board reducing prices in 2009-2013?  Did they do the right thing?"   My answer would be the same.  I don't know. The market should be setting the rate not some board of bureaucrats/experts.

The fed controls the supply of base money, so how can the market ever truly be setting rates?  If you're going to have a national currency, someone has to decide how quickly to grow money supply, no?
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: rkbabang on January 03, 2019, 02:08:27 PM


Nothing the fed does is a market phenomenon.  It is government setting rates. No different from the USSR setting prices in their economy either by their own opinions or sometimes by looking at ads in London Newspapers. If the rate is set by the fed then it isn't being set by the market. If the price of Avocados was set by a government board and you asked me "What do you think about the Federal Avocado Board reducing prices in 2009-2013?  Did they do the right thing?"   My answer would be the same.  I don't know. The market should be setting the rate not some board of bureaucrats/experts.

The fed controls the supply of base money, so how can the market ever truly be setting rates?  If you're going to have a national currency, someone has to decide how quickly to grow money supply, no?

Bingo.

Money should also be a market phenomenon.
 
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 03, 2019, 05:28:22 PM
Looks like sanity is prevailing with some folks - Dallas Fed thinks we shouldn't raise rates:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/robert-kaplan-says-central-bank-should-pause-rate-hikes-amid-turmoil-in-markets.html

WSJ chimes in with the prospect for rate hikes -

A bond-market indicator also is sending a bad signal. The difference between the three-month Treasury bill and the 10-year note has narrowed considerably. With the former at 2.41% and the latter at 2.58% midday Thursday, an inversion in the yield curve is a real possibility.

Inversions have often preceded recessions, even as economists still debate whether they correlate with downturns, or cause them. A recent San Francisco Fed paper said a sustained three-month to 10-year inversion is the most reliable market indicator of recession.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/analysis-bad-news-barrage-dims-hopes-fed-can-deliver-2019-rate-hikes-11546545691
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Cardboard on January 04, 2019, 08:00:26 AM
Ah... the guy woke-up!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/powell-says-fed-will-be-patient-with-monetary-policy-as-they-watch-how-economy-does.html

Cardboard
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 04, 2019, 08:33:15 PM
Hope so - but looking at comments from others - it looks like the Fed may still raise rates

Cleveland Fed:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/feds-mester-says-if-inflation-doesnt-rise-fed-could-stop-hikes.html

"If we don't see inflation picking up and we see the labor market staying reasonably strong from where we are now, that may tell us we're not neutral."


Cramer thinks Fed has outdated models and I tend to agree:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/cramer-fed-will-hike-rates-until-there-are-firing-and-layoffs.html

CNBC's Jim Cramer argued Friday that the Federal Reserve's policies are severely outdated, and said the central bank won't stop its rate-hike policy until Americans suffer from "firings and layoffs."

Ah... the guy woke-up!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/powell-says-fed-will-be-patient-with-monetary-policy-as-they-watch-how-economy-does.html

Cardboard
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: james22 on January 05, 2019, 12:09:57 AM
I like Uncle John's take:

1.  Greenspan, Bernanke, and, in particular, Yellen all gave the markets a “put” option—basically a third unofficial mandate to make sure that asset prices keep rising. Now, of course, that’s not the way they would express it, but that is, in fact, what they did. They created a series of bubbles, which spectacularly (and predictably) blew up, particularly screwing the little guys who didn’t know better and could least afford losses. We should not be where we are today, and we would not be here today, without their seriously screwing up Federal Reserve policy.

2. The Federal Reserve is running a two-variable experiment without the benefit of ever having run a one-variable experiment to determine what the results would be. It is decidedly the stupidest monetary policy mistake in a long line of Fed mistakes.

What are the two variables? They are raising interest rates (albeit slowly) and aggressively reducing their balance sheet. I think many of the problems we see in the market are results of this combination. They should do one or the other, not both.


3. Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee listen to extremely smart PhDs from all the best schools with their fabulous multi-algorithmic models, which prove that you could raise rates and reduce the balance sheet at the same time with no problems.

Bluntly, those smart people (many of whom are actually quite brilliant, and I’m sure they are nice people, and their kids and dogs love them) mistakenly trust models based on past performance, and even worse (much, unbelievably, really badly, worse, which I can’t emphasize enough!) on monetary theory that is clearly, evidently, badly, manifestly wrong.

They have been using these models to forecast future market actions and the economy for decades, and they are about 0 for 300 in being right. It is statistically impossible to be that bad unless your models/assumptions are fundamentally flawed, which they are. Their underlying economic theories manifestly don’t work.


https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/bear-markets-fed-mistakes-and-quick-shots-from-john%2Bmauldin+fed+uncle+john&client=safari&rls=en&hl=en&ct=clnk
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: wachtwoord on January 05, 2019, 05:50:19 AM
I'm missing the option: "Interest rates should be set by the free market rather than a central bank."

Edit:
While reading all the posts saw rkbabang already made my point.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 06, 2019, 09:49:35 PM
Yes, ideally it is how it should be but it isn't. It is unlikely to change anytime soon.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-faces-a-fresh-test-engineering-a-soft-economic-landing-11546822609?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Here is another article on the motivation of the fed - they would like to push unemployment up without triggering a recession. Seems like a tough job when asset and commodity prices are dropping. As others have said, Fed seems to be having some outdated models.

I'm missing the option: "Interest rates should be set by the free market rather than a central bank."

Edit:
While reading all the posts saw rkbabang already made my point.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: JimBowerman on January 07, 2019, 08:46:56 AM
I'm missing the option: "Interest rates should be set by the free market rather than a central bank."

Edit:
While reading all the posts saw rkbabang already made my point.

I'm probably beating a dead horse at this point, but i'd just add that imo, the only way the market can truly set interest rates is if the money supply is also dictated by the market (i.e. private currencies).  I get confused when people start claiming that the fed only started manipulating interest rates post 2008.  The fed dictates the supply of base money, so they are always going to be setting (nominal) interest rates.  The market has never truly set interest rates, and the market certainly didn't dictate interest rates before 2008.  That said, on a personal level, I don't really care whether we have 0% inflation vs 2% inflation.  Real gdp per capita grew about the same in the 1800s (0% inflation) as it did in the 1900s (3% inflation). 
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 11, 2019, 06:38:29 AM
Looks like there won't be a hike immediately:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-fed-officials-caution-needed-more-rate-hikes-153756790--business.html

Hope so - but looking at comments from others - it looks like the Fed may still raise rates

Cleveland Fed:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/feds-mester-says-if-inflation-doesnt-rise-fed-could-stop-hikes.html

"If we don't see inflation picking up and we see the labor market staying reasonably strong from where we are now, that may tell us we're not neutral."


Cramer thinks Fed has outdated models and I tend to agree:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/cramer-fed-will-hike-rates-until-there-are-firing-and-layoffs.html

CNBC's Jim Cramer argued Friday that the Federal Reserve's policies are severely outdated, and said the central bank won't stop its rate-hike policy until Americans suffer from "firings and layoffs."

Ah... the guy woke-up!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/powell-says-fed-will-be-patient-with-monetary-policy-as-they-watch-how-economy-does.html

Cardboard
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 21, 2019, 09:29:42 PM
Yellen chimes in:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/14/yellen-says-very-possible-the-fed-has-enacted-its-last-rate-hike.html
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on January 22, 2019, 01:37:25 AM
Apparently it has not seeped into Ms. Yellen's head yet that she's retired, so she is still yelling.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on January 22, 2019, 03:48:23 AM
Apparently it has not seeped into Ms. Yellen's head yet that she's retired, so she is still yelling.

She is now in the speech circus and needs air time to keep her brand intact.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: wachtwoord on January 22, 2019, 05:10:39 AM
Apparently it has not seeped into Ms. Yellen's head yet that she's retired, so she is still yelling.

She is now in the speech circus and needs air time to keep her brand intact.

Isn't being allowed to give these overpriced speeches repayment for services rendered in her time at the FED (so content is a secondary concern)? That's how it works for ex presidents anyway ;)
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 26, 2019, 07:47:19 PM
It looks like the fed chair goofed up big time - they are trying to undo the damage


https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-adviser-says-fed-board-nominees-should-support-easy-money-policies-11548375931
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-earlier-than-expected-end-to-bond-portfolio-runoff-11548412201
https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-patience-buys-breathing-room-for-asian-economies-11548393287
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on January 27, 2019, 07:37:45 AM
It looks like the fed chair goofed up big time - they are trying to undo the damage


https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-adviser-says-fed-board-nominees-should-support-easy-money-policies-11548375931
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-earlier-than-expected-end-to-bond-portfolio-runoff-11548412201
https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-patience-buys-breathing-room-for-asian-economies-11548393287

What damage?
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on January 27, 2019, 08:20:13 AM
What damage?

Since shalab posted, I have had exactly the same line of thinking as Spekulatius. Maybe I'm more or less blind, but - for sure - I can't see it. I may be in need of a cane of the blind, though. The number of yellow rings here locally goes from one to three, as I understand things. I think two rings is for the user where the spouse/partner is still beautiful, despite it was so ages ago, while three rings is when you're blind.

Right now, I'm spending time to counter my blindness by thinking about position sizing for the Big Four US banks.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 27, 2019, 08:42:27 AM
May be not damage, they might have created an opportunity. I deployed a bunch of funds in December and got high quality names for low prices.

First Powell said the rates are a long way from neutral when he didnt even know what neutral is:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-markets-may-have-overreacted-to-powells-long-way-from-neutral-remark-economists-say-2018-10-04

Then he said a bunch of things that caused the market to nose dive
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-said-seems-troubling-markets-181403220.html

Then in January he comes out and says he learned China is slowing down from Apple release. All along he has been saying that China is doing great and global economy is great. Then IMF comes out and lowers global growth forecasts.

This guy is Fed Chair for crying out loud - even a casual person looking at newspapers (unless it is all fake news)can see what is going on. He should have more data and insights than an orangutan reading newspapers.

What damage?

Since shalab posted, I have had exactly the same line of thinking as Spekulatius. Maybe I'm more or less blind, but - for sure - I can't see it. I may be in need of a cane of the blind, though. The number of yellow rings here locally goes from one to three, as I understand things. I think two rings is for the user where the spouse/partner is still beautiful, despite it was so ages ago, while three rings is when you're blind.

Right now, I'm spending time to counter my blindness by thinking about position sizing for the Big Four US banks.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on January 27, 2019, 09:33:13 AM
Thank you, shalab,

Your last post puts more shades on your line of thinking. [Still : To me, nothing material changed here, so far.]

Wikipedia : Flexibility (personality) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flexibility_(personality)).
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 27, 2019, 11:19:45 AM
Thank you John Hjorth

I went through the bank data you shared - thank you for sharing. The bank share prices were lower at the end of 2018 compared to 2017 - the main reason being people are concerned about 2019. That to me would be one material change. Then there is the housing prices, lack of inflation and emerging market impact and overall less business activity.

I am curious to know what would constitute material change from your perspective?

Thank you, shalab,

Your last post puts more shades on your line of thinking. [Still : To me, nothing material changed here, so far.]

Wikipedia : Flexibility (personality) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flexibility_(personality)).
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Gregmal on January 27, 2019, 11:43:32 AM
I think it’s important to remember that the high majority of the time, material changes in asset prices can be caused by things that in hindsite are rather immaterial. Multiples can expand and contract on nothing other than sentiment. So doing ones best to understand all the different puzzle pieces and how they fit into the bigger picture is just as important, if not more so, than simply waiting for a material change. More often than not, material changes, once obvious, are already priced in.

Real world examples would be obvious from looking at any number of story stocks. WPRT was one of the biggest examples I can think of. The company was a dud, but had a great story. For years the market ignored poor results and a management team that over promised and underdelivered, consistently. Returns were quite impressive. Then, out of nowhere really, market participants lost confidence in management, and then the company could do no right. It plummeted like 90% inside of a year without any real “material change”. Tesla IMO could be another one real soon.

My point, WPRT was a shit company. The US economy is quite healthy. Fluctuations can occur, that are quite material in terms of impacting the value of ones investment, and driven by nothing but sentiment. It’s easier to swim with the current, rather than against it. One just needs to find the current. Who cares how long Jerome Powell needs to chase his own tail...
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on January 27, 2019, 01:24:39 PM
Forget what they say, just see what they do.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 27, 2019, 02:07:29 PM
While I agree with you that US economy is healthy, Fed definitely has the power to damage it. The press did its job in pressuring them and it resulted in them leaking a story to WSJ about quantitative tightening. Wall street liked the leaked message on Friday.

BTW - I believe Elon Musk/Tesla have added tremendous value to the US and also to the world. I have no opinion on Tesla as an investment but I met an investment manager that has met Musk and invested in Tesla. Their opinion - "don't bet against Elon Musk". 

...
My point, WPRT was a shit company. The US economy is quite healthy. Fluctuations can occur, that are quite material in terms of impacting the value of ones investment, and driven by nothing but sentiment. It’s easier to swim with the current, rather than against it. One just needs to find the current. Who cares how long Jerome Powell needs to chase his own tail...

Amen

Forget what they say, just see what they do.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 28, 2019, 09:07:30 PM
CBO expects rate hikes this year and economic growth of 2.3%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/the-cbo-thinks-the-fed-is-going-to-raise-interest-rates-this-year-disagreeing-with-wall-street.html
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on January 30, 2019, 11:09:18 AM
FOMC Press Conference January 30th 2019 at 2:30 PM (https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm).
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on January 30, 2019, 09:22:05 PM
Thanks - looks like the Fed did the right thing finally.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/fed-leaves-rates-unchanged.html

I expect the USA GDP to be close to or cross 22 trillion at the end of 2019. Let us see how it goes. It was 20.66 trillion at the end of Q3. I expect it to hit ~21 trillion at the end of 2018.

FOMC Press Conference January 30th 2019 at 2:30 PM (https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm).
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on January 30, 2019, 09:27:12 PM
... Let us see how it goes. ...

Yes shalab,

A least one element of all the noise generation as of yet eliminated - at least for now.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on February 02, 2019, 06:01:50 PM
Why FED made a U turn - WSJ:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-fed-made-a-u-turn-perceived-risks-to-growth-shifted-11549108800?mod=hp_lista_pos2
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on February 03, 2019, 10:13:49 AM
Impact of fed rate increase:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-03/dollar-vortex-puts-chill-on-earnings-that-may-worsen-in-spring?srnd=premium
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on February 14, 2019, 11:45:54 PM
CNBC [February 14th 2019] : Watch CNBC's full interview with Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/02/14/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-federal-reserve-governor-lael-brainard.html).
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on March 22, 2019, 05:45:22 PM
We have inverted yield curve now - comparing 3 month treasury to the 10 year treasury

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

Fed still thinks they can have a rate hike in 2020
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: thefatbaboon on March 23, 2019, 03:23:50 AM
Continue to be amazed at the recklessness of Powell.  Pushing through those eight sequential hikes...especially the december one.  And then within a few days  he's speechifying in January and again now dialing it all back in the face of data that was already rather obvious to even the most casual observer. Clown
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Cardboard on March 23, 2019, 04:48:07 AM
Yup! Went from 2 rate hikes in 2019, to data based driven, to none whatsoever in 3 months.

Then just before this latest decision goes on CBS 60 minutes to brag about himself and the rest of his academicians bunch.

This entire Fed is a joke. Really have no clue and as I said previously never orchestrated a soft landing in their entire history.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Cigarbutt on March 23, 2019, 05:23:36 AM
Yup! Went from 2 rate hikes in 2019, to data based driven, to none whatsoever in 3 months.

Then just before this latest decision goes on CBS 60 minutes to brag about himself and the rest of his academicians bunch.

This entire Fed is a joke. Really have no clue and as I said previously never orchestrated a soft landing in their entire history.

Cardboard
Read lately here and elsewhere:
-The Fed hasn't been able to engineer a strong recovery after the 2007-9 episode.
-The Fed has had a hard time managing the economy due to unforeseen circumstances.
-The Fed hasn't been able to stage a credible exit process.

In the last 20 years, most of positive stock returns have occurred around FOMC meetings, the GFC happened more than 10 years ago and, on a relative basis, the Fed had only started to decrease its balance sheet.

Question:
How have we come to rely so much on central planners?
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on March 23, 2019, 05:58:42 AM
Recession would occur with and without the Fed. It looks like the yield curve inverses due to rates in the EU being inverses, not because the economy is too weak. I don’t see credit freezing up, nor do I see a recession. The only issue I see is that the Fed is talking about what they are going to do and it seems counterproductive. I suggest they do whatever they want to do and shut up about what they are intend to do in the future.

I personally like some volatility in the stock market. Another panik run this year would be great.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Cardboard on March 23, 2019, 07:07:49 AM
"Recession would occur with and without the Fed. "

Sure but, no need to add fuel to the fire as they do each and every time! Never noticed that they never seem to think about the dollar strength, what copper says, what other currencies and interest rates are?

"I personally like some volatility in the stock market. Another panik run this year would be great."

Feels to me like the Fed is a tool for the ultra wealthy to actually accentuate these panics. Maybe to overthrow some administrations as well. Bilderberg comes to mind:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/bilderberg-group-conspiracy-theories-secret-societies-new-world-order-alex-jones-a8377171.html

Cardboard
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on March 23, 2019, 07:40:08 AM
In addition, 70% on this board supported rate hikes. It shows how politics can turn ones head into cabbage, ala Munger.

Continue to be amazed at the recklessness of Powell.  Pushing through those eight sequential hikes...especially the december one.  And then within a few days  he's speechifying in January and again now dialing it all back in the face of data that was already rather obvious to even the most casual observer. Clown
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on March 23, 2019, 08:25:03 AM
In addition, 70% on this board supported rate hikes. It shows how politics can turn ones head into cabbage, ala Munger.

Continue to be amazed at the recklessness of Powell.  Pushing through those eight sequential hikes...especially the december one.  And then within a few days  he's speechifying in January and again now dialing it all back in the face of data that was already rather obvious to even the most casual observer. Clown

Huh? What have the Fed hikes to do with politics ? Powell was chosen by Trump, by the way.
Anyways, I can’t see how  a 2.5% interest rates (real interest rate is 0.5-1% after inflation) can cause a problem. It sure seems to be a preferable situation Europe, where interesting rates are virtually nil and the economic is crawling to a halt nevertheless. My guess is that the recent drop in LT interest rates in The EU is caused by Brexit uncertainty, which is an exogenous event for the US.

I also note think that every value investor should love volatility.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on March 23, 2019, 09:19:10 AM
Agreed with volatility being a friend of the investor. I am getting cash ready for the next event which could happen 3-6 months out.

However, USA interest rate hikes have implications beyond the immediate interest payment. E.g:, USDCAD is at 1.34. EURUSD is at 1.13. Given 50% of SP500 earnings are from abroad, this has implications on trade and investments.

In addition, 70% on this board supported rate hikes. It shows how politics can turn ones head into cabbage, ala Munger.

Continue to be amazed at the recklessness of Powell.  Pushing through those eight sequential hikes...especially the december one.  And then within a few days  he's speechifying in January and again now dialing it all back in the face of data that was already rather obvious to even the most casual observer. Clown

Huh? What have the Fed hikes to do with politics ? Powell was chosen by Trump, by the way.
Anyways, I can’t see how  a 2.5% interest rates (real interest rate is 0.5-1% after inflation) can cause a problem. It sure seems to be a preferable situation Europe, where interesting rates are virtually nil and the economic is crawling to a halt nevertheless. My guess is that the recent drop in LT interest rates in The EU is caused by Brexit uncertainty, which is an exogenous event for the US.

I also note think that every value investor should love volatility.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Viking on March 23, 2019, 11:27:17 AM
It really is surprising how quickly the economic data is turning compared to 3, 6, 9 and 12 months ago. Europe is slowing. Exports from China are slowing. And now US GDP is slowing, with expectations for Q1 now around 1%.

GDP growth in Canada in Q4 was barely positive and expectations are Q1 GDP will be negative; on a blended (Q4+Q1) basis the expectation is we could see a negative number.

The million dollar question: does this global slowdown continue in 2019? Or do we bottom in Q1 and see growth pick up in Q2 and rise into year end?

As has been posted by Spekulatius, i am also hoping for some volatility to take advantage of panic selling.

Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on May 03, 2019, 10:27:18 PM
Looks like the fed is again not doing its job - "Central bank policy makers are looking for reasons to ignore the lack of upward pressure in consumer prices"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-02/the-federal-reserve-s-inflation-message-is-muddled
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on May 04, 2019, 05:21:44 AM
It really is surprising how quickly the economic data is turning compared to 3, 6, 9 and 12 months ago. Europe is slowing. Exports from China are slowing. And now US GDP is slowing, with expectations for Q1 now around 1%.

GDP growth in Canada in Q4 was barely positive and expectations are Q1 GDP will be negative; on a blended (Q4+Q1) basis the expectation is we could see a negative number.

The million dollar question: does this global slowdown continue in 2019? Or do we bottom in Q1 and see growth pick up in Q2 and rise into year end?

As has been posted by Spekulatius, i am also hoping for some volatility to take advantage of panic selling.

Looks like the US is doing nicely and China as re-accelerating. Europe is still slow and I don’t know about Canada. Mr. Market simply seems to have overreacted back in December.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on May 19, 2019, 12:42:07 PM
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Thursday the bigger problem was how the Fed had conducted monetary policy this decade and not its current approach to targeting 2% inflation.

"Ms. Brainard's views illustrate how the central bank's center of gravity has shifted over time. While she was initially reluctant to lift rates, she said by last summer the Fed would need to raise them high enough to slow the economy given the expected boost from the tax cuts and federal spending increases.

Several officials last year had projected inflation would begin to rise above the 2% target even with continued rate increases. Now, officials are conceding their economic models may not be working as they did in the past. Inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices posted an annual gain of just 1.6% in March and 1.8% in January, according to the Fed's preferred measure.

...

Policy makers will never have perfect information on the real economy," he said in remarks in Santa Barbara, Calif. "But raising rates while inflation was low is an example of a shortcoming of how we implemented our framework rather than a shortcoming of the framework itself."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-brainard-says-central-bank-should-welcome-modest-rise-in-inflation-11558023372

Fed admits its short comings
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on May 19, 2019, 04:37:17 PM
It really is surprising how quickly the economic data is turning compared to 3, 6, 9 and 12 months ago. Europe is slowing. Exports from China are slowing. And now US GDP is slowing, with expectations for Q1 now around 1%.

GDP growth in Canada in Q4 was barely positive and expectations are Q1 GDP will be negative; on a blended (Q4+Q1) basis the expectation is we could see a negative number.

The million dollar question: does this global slowdown continue in 2019? Or do we bottom in Q1 and see growth pick up in Q2 and rise into year end?

As has been posted by Spekulatius, i am also hoping for some volatility to take advantage of panic selling.

Looks like the US is doing nicely and China as re-accelerating. Europe is still slow and I don’t know about Canada. Mr. Market simply seems to have overreacted back in December.

Not to say that it hasn't been wrong in the past, but Atlanta Fed GDP numbers are tracking at 1.6%. hardly a "re-acceleration". If that's what it prints at, it would prove a deceleration given slowing GDP while things like oil/inflation should be rising to support it.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: thefatbaboon on June 01, 2019, 11:23:45 AM
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Thursday the bigger problem was how the Fed had conducted monetary policy this decade and not its current approach to targeting 2% inflation.

"Ms. Brainard's views illustrate how the central bank's center of gravity has shifted over time. While she was initially reluctant to lift rates, she said by last summer the Fed would need to raise them high enough to slow the economy given the expected boost from the tax cuts and federal spending increases.

Several officials last year had projected inflation would begin to rise above the 2% target even with continued rate increases. Now, officials are conceding their economic models may not be working as they did in the past. Inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices posted an annual gain of just 1.6% in March and 1.8% in January, according to the Fed's preferred measure.

...

Policy makers will never have perfect information on the real economy," he said in remarks in Santa Barbara, Calif. "But raising rates while inflation was low is an example of a shortcoming of how we implemented our framework rather than a shortcoming of the framework itself."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-brainard-says-central-bank-should-welcome-modest-rise-in-inflation-11558023372

Fed admits its short comings

I’ve said this before but I think Brainard’s aboutface is possibly political. She’s a democrat and donor and she abandons a steadfast cautious position that she spoke to many times in public to support a whole series of hikes.  Obviously she could have changed her mind on the basis of changing  fundamental data but it doesn’t make sense to me as inflation never got to target.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on June 19, 2019, 05:06:10 PM
Still having difficulty to admit they made a blunder in raising rates

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fomc-fed-june-meeting-interest-rates-130018529.html
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Cigarbutt on June 19, 2019, 06:46:44 PM
Still having difficulty to admit they made a blunder in raising rates

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fomc-fed-june-meeting-interest-rates-130018529.html
In this race to the bottom, the US has a lot of room to maneuver in comparison to other pushing-on-a-string benchmarks:
--% of government debt with negative yields as of June 18, 2019 (total value 12T)--
Germany: 88%
Japan: 74%
Italy: 12%
At the end of May 2019, 20% of European investment-grade corporate debt had negative yields.

For those interested, here is a list of real-time tools to "Get Expert Insights to Manage FOMC-Related Event Risk".
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Interesting times.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on June 19, 2019, 07:17:55 PM
Othe then perhaps boosting asset prices, I don’t think the level of interest rates matter much at this point. 2.25%, 2%, 1.5% why would anyone care? What did Europe or Japan get for lowering interest rates to basically zero?
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: shalab on June 19, 2019, 08:35:58 PM
It matters for two reasons
   - foreign trade, the dollar is artificially high - this depresses us exports and boosts imports
   - yield curve - it is inverted - https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
   - negative yield curve slows down the economy or puts it in recession or both
Othe then perhaps boosting asset prices, I don’t think the level of interest rates matter much at this point. 2.25%, 2%, 1.5% why would anyone care? What did Europe or Japan get for lowering interest rates to basically zero?
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on June 19, 2019, 11:25:46 PM
Othe then perhaps boosting asset prices, I don’t think the level of interest rates matter much at this point. 2.25%, 2%, 1.5% why would anyone care? What did Europe or Japan get for lowering interest rates to basically zero?

+1


Honestly, I agree with this. The cost of servicing the stock of debt is more deflationary than the inflationary impulse of the continues flow of new debt issuance. In other words, the marginal utility of new debt is exceeded by the additional cost of servicing that debt.

I think we need a Volker 2.0 - someone who will raise rates despite negative consequences.  Not to break the back of inflation, but to break the back of debt dependence to purchase every major item in a lifetime (i.e. and education, a home, a car, a standar of living, etc).
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: thefatbaboon on June 20, 2019, 02:42:51 AM
Still having difficulty to admit they made a blunder in raising rates

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fomc-fed-june-meeting-interest-rates-130018529.html

The Wizard Powell. 

We have a "symmetric" target of 2% inflation. We raise preemptively 8 times before reaching this target as the data suggests we may reach this target at some point.  We never really reach the target and inflation expectations turn down. Question: so why aren't you cutting this meeting?  Because we are waiting for more persistent data. Someone needs to explain the words symmetry and target to this guy!   

Reflect for a minute on the last 12 months. The arrogance of this man is staggering.  Everything he says is contrary to what the rates markets are telling him at the time he says it. Think of this from a gambling point of view.  The bookmakers with all their trillions of $ at risk along all durations of the bond market expect a lower neutral rate, undershooting inflation and lower growth and believe that hitting 2% is unlikely and price trillions and trillions and trillions of bonds accordingly.  This wizard then repeatedly backs the long shot contrarian position: that the neutral rate is higher, and that inflation and growth will increase. Like most long shot gamblers he has been losing all his bets.  Ok, so this isn't ideal, it would be better if the guy wasn't always wrong.  But really more remarkable than all these lost long shot bets is that Powell has been walking into the bookies when HE DOESNT EVEN NEED TO.  He has a target of 2% he doesn't need to gamble on any outcomes until we hit 2% and spend some time symmetrically around it.   So not only do we have long-shot-larry running the Fed but he's compulsive and runs out to make these bets when he should be sitting quietly at home.







Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on June 20, 2019, 09:04:52 AM
Inflation between October 1997 and March 1999 was less than 2%.

Yet, the short rates were much higher than now. Wasn't enough to prevent the big stock market bubble.

Inflation exceeded 2% only in April 1999, and the 3-month yield then was 4.5%.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on June 20, 2019, 09:48:52 AM
Still having difficulty to admit they made a blunder in raising rates

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fomc-fed-june-meeting-interest-rates-130018529.html

The Wizard Powell. 

We have a "symmetric" target of 2% inflation. We raise preemptively 8 times before reaching this target as the data suggests we may reach this target at some point.  We never really reach the target and inflation expectations turn down. Question: so why aren't you cutting this meeting?  Because we are waiting for more persistent data. Someone needs to explain the words symmetry and target to this guy!   

Reflect for a minute on the last 12 months. The arrogance of this man is staggering.  Everything he says is contrary to what the rates markets are telling him at the time he says it. Think of this from a gambling point of view.  The bookmakers with all their trillions of $ at risk along all durations of the bond market expect a lower neutral rate, undershooting inflation and lower growth and believe that hitting 2% is unlikely and price trillions and trillions and trillions of bonds accordingly.  This wizard then repeatedly backs the long shot contrarian position: that the neutral rate is higher, and that inflation and growth will increase. Like most long shot gamblers he has been losing all his bets.  Ok, so this isn't ideal, it would be better if the guy wasn't always wrong.  But really more remarkable than all these lost long shot bets is that Powell has been walking into the bookies when HE DOESNT EVEN NEED TO.  He has a target of 2% he doesn't need to gamble on any outcomes until we hit 2% and spend some time symmetrically around it.   So not only do we have long-shot-larry running the Fed but he's compulsive and runs out to make these bets when he should be sitting quietly at home.

I think this unfairly targets Powell.

In reality, any member of the FOMC is hugely arrogant to believe that they know better than the millions of market participants what rates should be. If they weren't arrogant, they'd let markets handle rates and call it a day.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: thefatbaboon on June 20, 2019, 01:06:13 PM
You're probably right, I have exaggerated and perhaps it's unfair.  And I don't really mean my argument to be taken to it's extreme.  But what I don't get here is the Why?!  Why do they bother with such contrarian positions when they are not compelled to by inflationary pressure?  I understand standing against the crowd pushing rates low when markets are collapsing and market forces have rates stubbornly high.  I understand standing against the crowd have lifting rates if the economy is over heating and inflation has gone past target.  But I don't understand being a stubborn contrarian when there is no need.  As things are they are simply behind the market, a kind of parrot with delay. 

1.  Powell: we are a long way from neutral and will have to raise many times.  Market: you might have reached neutral and raising might not be good idea.
2. Powell: we are less sure where neutral is, but we will raise at least twice next year and run off the balance sheet on auto.  Market: you've probably past neutral, and you won't raise at all next year.
3.  Powell: we probably won't raise at all this year.  Market:  you'll probably cut.
4.  Powell, we might have to cut....etc etc


And all this why?  Inverting the curve, having all durations cheaper than overnight! Why do that? Is inflation running at or past target?  Powell is peculiar and a stark contrast to the thoughtfulness shown and expressed by Yellen during her tenure.


Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Jurgis on June 20, 2019, 01:24:10 PM
Why should fed cut here? Economy is doing great, stock market is doing great, unemployment is super low, rates are very low historically speaking ( what RuleNumberOne said ). Everyone's in the market and they want the fed to cut to get 1999 repeat? And what next? Just give us another bubble?

I think fed should raise rather than cut. But hey just go with the market lemmings experts.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Gregmal on June 20, 2019, 01:52:15 PM
I do find it amusing that the geniuses at the Fed take 2-3 quarters longer than even the average person to realize what is going on. I don't think we need a rate cut now, but I also dont think we needed nearly as many as these idiots gave us the last couple years.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: SHDL on June 20, 2019, 02:34:52 PM
Why should fed cut here? Economy is doing great, stock market is doing great, unemployment is super low, rates are very low historically speaking ( what RuleNumberOne said ). Everyone's in the market and they want the fed to cut to get 1999 repeat? And what next? Just give us another bubble?

I think fed should raise rather than cut. But hey just go with the market lemmings experts.

I think your take is actually pretty close to the Fed’s baseline forecast, namely the economy does fine and they don’t cut during 2019.  The reason they’re slightly more dovish than what you think is appropriate is that they now see some negative economic indicators showing up and inflation is undershooting their target. 

What I find pretty strange is the extreme confidence with which the bond market is predicting multiple rate cuts this year and how happy Mr (Stock) Market seems to be about all this.  The Fed has pretty much indicated that rate cuts are not forthcoming this year unless the economy starts deteriorating.  So if the bond market is right and rates are going down big time that means the economy is going to do pretty badly.  Will stocks do great under such circumstances?  I don’t think so.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Jurgis on June 20, 2019, 02:40:13 PM
Why should fed cut here? Economy is doing great, stock market is doing great, unemployment is super low, rates are very low historically speaking ( what RuleNumberOne said ). Everyone's in the market and they want the fed to cut to get 1999 repeat? And what next? Just give us another bubble?

I think fed should raise rather than cut. But hey just go with the market lemmings experts.

I think your take is actually pretty close to the Fed’s baseline forecast, namely the economy does fine and they don’t cut during 2019.  The reason they’re slightly more dovish than what you think is appropriate is that they now see some negative economic indicators showing up and inflation is undershooting their target. 

What I find pretty strange is the extreme confidence with which the bond market is predicting multiple rate cuts this year and how happy Mr (Stock) Market seems to be about all this.  The Fed has pretty much indicated that rate cuts are not forthcoming this year unless the economy starts deteriorating.  So if the bond market is right and rates are going down big time that means the economy is going to do pretty badly.  Will stocks do great under such circumstances?  I don’t think so.

Well said.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on June 20, 2019, 03:40:49 PM
Why should fed cut here? Economy is doing great, stock market is doing great, unemployment is super low, rates are very low historically speaking ( what RuleNumberOne said ). Everyone's in the market and they want the fed to cut to get 1999 repeat? And what next? Just give us another bubble?

I think fed should raise rather than cut. But hey just go with the market lemmings experts.

I think your take is actually pretty close to the Fed’s baseline forecast, namely the economy does fine and they don’t cut during 2019.  The reason they’re slightly more dovish than what you think is appropriate is that they now see some negative economic indicators showing up and inflation is undershooting their target. 

What I find pretty strange is the extreme confidence with which the bond market is predicting multiple rate cuts this year and how happy Mr (Stock) Market seems to be about all this.  The Fed has pretty much indicated that rate cuts are not forthcoming this year unless the economy starts deteriorating.  So if the bond market is right and rates are going down big time that means the economy is going to do pretty badly.  Will stocks do great under such circumstances?  I don’t think so.

Either everything is good news or everything is bad news. Right now it’s a former.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: SHDL on June 20, 2019, 04:40:20 PM
Why should fed cut here? Economy is doing great, stock market is doing great, unemployment is super low, rates are very low historically speaking ( what RuleNumberOne said ). Everyone's in the market and they want the fed to cut to get 1999 repeat? And what next? Just give us another bubble?

I think fed should raise rather than cut. But hey just go with the market lemmings experts.

I think your take is actually pretty close to the Fed’s baseline forecast, namely the economy does fine and they don’t cut during 2019.  The reason they’re slightly more dovish than what you think is appropriate is that they now see some negative economic indicators showing up and inflation is undershooting their target. 

What I find pretty strange is the extreme confidence with which the bond market is predicting multiple rate cuts this year and how happy Mr (Stock) Market seems to be about all this.  The Fed has pretty much indicated that rate cuts are not forthcoming this year unless the economy starts deteriorating.  So if the bond market is right and rates are going down big time that means the economy is going to do pretty badly.  Will stocks do great under such circumstances?  I don’t think so.

Either everything is good news or everything is bad news. Right now it’s a former.

Lesson of the day: Mr Market don’t understand if statements.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Viking on June 20, 2019, 08:56:26 PM
US bond yields have fallen precipitously so far in 2019. Some are now forcasting a move in the 10 year to 1.5%  in short bond yields are cratering. Today the bond market is forcasting the Fed will be cutting 3 times this year with the first cut coming in July. The bond market is freaking out about something.

The stock market is hitting all time highs. One of the reasons is because the Fed will be cutting and many times.

The elephant in the room is the US economy. Are bond yields cratering because the bond market sees economic growth in the US slowing dramatically (below current expectations)? What will cause the Fed to cut 3 times in 2019? What does the stock market see that is pushing averages to all time highs?

Bad news has now become good news. And the badder the better! I really do not understand what is going on :-)



Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on June 22, 2019, 03:04:05 AM
Viking,

In the "Buffett/Berkshire - General news" topic some of us discussed recently the issuance by Berkshire of 20 & 40 years debt at very low rates. There, shalab proposed (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/buffett-news/msg373385/#msg373385), that what's going on with the US yield curve [at least partly] may be explained by capital inflow from Europe seeking better yields [perhaps both short and long yields]. That explanation makes sense to me, at least as an explanation partly.

The sentiment now popping up about rate cuts in the US by FED certainly also has moved the USD/EUR pair a bit, making the USD weaker relatively. When I look at my portfolio, I was at all-time-high on April 29th, measured in DKK [, pegged to EUR].

- - - o 0 o - - -

No matter that, it feels discomforting to observe this phenomen.

Personally, I try not to think too much about it, trying to tune out all the noise, simultaneously improving my internal rating & popularity by taking care of my other compounders : Roses [mainly climbers & ramblers] and hostas, and building up the lawn again after last years drought. [ : - ) ]
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: SHDL on July 18, 2019, 02:43:23 PM
The Fed has pretty much indicated that rate cuts are not forthcoming this year unless the economy starts deteriorating. 

I probably need to revise this.  It's becoming increasingly clear that the Fed is going to cut rates as a "pre-emptive" measure, even though the US economy seems to be doing just fine at the moment.  I don't understand why they think that's a good idea, but it looks like there's been a regime/paradigm shift in their thinking.

Other things equal, I think this makes a stock market melt up similar to the one in the mid-late 1990s a lot more likely.  I imagine speculators are bidding up stocks in anticipation of that as we speak... 
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on July 18, 2019, 05:11:00 PM
The Fed has pretty much indicated that rate cuts are not forthcoming this year unless the economy starts deteriorating. 

I probably need to revise this.  It's becoming increasingly clear that the Fed is going to cut rates as a "pre-emptive" measure, even though the US economy seems to be doing just fine at the moment.  I don't understand why they think that's a good idea, but it looks like there's been a regime/paradigm shift in their thinking.

Other things equal, I think this makes a stock market melt up similar to the one in the mid-late 1990s a lot more likely.  I imagine speculators are bidding up stocks in anticipation of that as we speak...

We'll see. I'm currently of the belief that while you might see stocks bid a day or two after the cut, it's basically priced in at this point and any cut will be seen as concession that things aren't as rosy as equity investors are pricing in.

Any cut simply means that weakness that used to be "transitory" is not necessarily. We're still seeing broad deterioration/deceleration in a lot of respects  - for example the Conference Board's Leading Indicators index turned negative for the first time since December in the June release this morning.

The only thing that's held up is employment and employment is largely a lagging indicator IMO.

I think a cut could be the confirmation of the next down cycle more than a continuation of the current one.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: SHDL on July 18, 2019, 06:04:48 PM
The Fed has pretty much indicated that rate cuts are not forthcoming this year unless the economy starts deteriorating. 

I probably need to revise this.  It's becoming increasingly clear that the Fed is going to cut rates as a "pre-emptive" measure, even though the US economy seems to be doing just fine at the moment.  I don't understand why they think that's a good idea, but it looks like there's been a regime/paradigm shift in their thinking.

Other things equal, I think this makes a stock market melt up similar to the one in the mid-late 1990s a lot more likely.  I imagine speculators are bidding up stocks in anticipation of that as we speak...

We'll see. I'm currently in of the belief that while you might see stocks bid a day or two after the cut, it's basically priced in at this point and any cut will bee seen as concession that things aren't as rosy as equity investors are pricing in.

Any cut simply means that weakness that used to be "transitory" is not necessarily. We're still seeing broad deterioration/deceleration in a lot of respects 
- for example the Conference Board's Leading Indicators index turned negative for the first time since December in the June release this morning.

The only thing that's held up is employment and employment is largely a lagging indicator IMO.
I think a cute could be the confirmation of the next down cycle more than a continuation of the current one.

That is what I was expecting until a short while ago so I understand your view point.  I still think it is/was the rational view.  Now, though, I’m not so sure given the Fed’s abrupt shift.  It’s very difficult to predict the behavior of someone whose thinking you do not understand.

Anyway, I think the bulls have a lot going for them.  First there are a lot of similarities here with the 90s, when the Fed reduced rates even though the domestic economy was doing fine and stock prices subsequently went crazy.  That alone will likely get some pattern recognition algorithms to tell traders to go long in a big way.  Consumers and workers in the US are doing more than fine, so most people, who don’t pay much attention to this stuff, will likely keep on with their buy and hold plans.  Some may increase their stock allocations because TINA or because they like the stock price momentum.  Finally, we have a President who is clearly trying very hard to keep the market climbing and a Fed Chairman who apparently regards Greenspan as a hero.  Valuations are not in favor of a melt up, obviously, but that was actually true in the late 90s too, and a lot of value oriented people “missed out” on the final burst for that reason (and some got back in right at the top).

If the economy really does go south though it’s another story.  It’s fairly easy to see why stocks can go down in a big way if that happens even if the recession itself isn’t too bad.

Speaking of which, why is the VIX so low?
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 18, 2019, 08:26:16 PM
Negative rates in Europe have inverted the US yield curve.

Dan Fuss:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-bond-legend-dan-fuss-is-buying-at-t-stock-51563363000

"The flows of capital from abroad means the gulf between ultralow or negative yields elsewhere and the high U.S. yields will have to narrow, he continues. "

Fed chief Powell said 2 days ago:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/feds-powell-says-uncertainties-have-increased-chances-of-a-rate-cut.html

“We have seen how monetary policy in one country can influence economic and financial conditions in others through financial markets, trade, and confidence channels. Pursuing our domestic mandates in this new world requires that we understand the anticipated effects of these interconnections and incorporate them into our policy decisionmaking,” he said.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on July 19, 2019, 08:45:53 AM
Negative rates in Europe have inverted the US yield curve.

Dan Fuss:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-bond-legend-dan-fuss-is-buying-at-t-stock-51563363000

"The flows of capital from abroad means the gulf between ultralow or negative yields elsewhere and the high U.S. yields will have to narrow, he continues. "

Fed chief Powell said 2 days ago:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/feds-powell-says-uncertainties-have-increased-chances-of-a-rate-cut.html

“We have seen how monetary policy in one country can influence economic and financial conditions in others through financial markets, trade, and confidence channels. Pursuing our domestic mandates in this new world requires that we understand the anticipated effects of these interconnections and incorporate them into our policy decisionmaking,” he said.

While I don't disagree with the statement overall, I'd like to see flows information confirm it.

It was my understanding that this was, in part, what drove the 10-year to 1.60% back in 2016, but since then I thought it had been a net negative return for most foreign buyers to buy treasuries and hedge the currency risk which has eliminated a lot of the foreign demand over the past 2 years.

Is there any flow data supporting foreign buyers?
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 19, 2019, 09:19:47 AM
BofA CEO said the same thing - European investors are buying our bonds and driving yields down.

In Europe, clients have put cash into vaults instead of checking accounts (see WSJ link below). They must be buying Treasuries too. Who knows what wealth confiscation crookedness the European Collectivist Bank may come up with next. I think for Europeans, buying Treasuries is protecting themselves against wealth expropriation.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/negative-rates-designed-as-a-short-term-jolt-have-become-an-addiction-11558363559

If you were thinking of buying real estate to shield against negative rates, Berlin showed the way with a retroactive rent freeze.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 19, 2019, 09:42:57 AM
I think all the parties below would prefer to buy Treasuries and not worry too much about currency hedging costs. ECB is looking to make rates more negative. Maybe people who invest other people's money and chase "benchmarks" might buy peripheral debt. But if it is your own money, you would want Treasuries.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/negative-rates-designed-as-a-short-term-jolt-have-become-an-addiction-11558363559

"Larger banks have shielded individual depositors while charging negative rates to large clients such as pension and hedge funds.

Some banks report major depositors have asked to park their physical cash in vaults—where it avoids incurring negative rates it might when in the form of electronic deposits but also does no good to the economy.

In Switzerland, some individuals are putting cash into real estate, prompting fears of overbuilding. “Holding cash,” said Swiss Bankers Association chief economist Martin Hess, “is simply more expensive than building an empty house.”"

Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on July 19, 2019, 10:07:19 AM
I think all the parties below would prefer to buy Treasuries and not worry too much about currency hedging costs. ECB is looking to make rates more negative. Maybe people who invest other people's money and chase "benchmarks" might buy peripheral debt. But if it is your own money, you would want Treasuries.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/negative-rates-designed-as-a-short-term-jolt-have-become-an-addiction-11558363559

"Larger banks have shielded individual depositors while charging negative rates to large clients such as pension and hedge funds.

Some banks report major depositors have asked to park their physical cash in vaults—where it avoids incurring negative rates it might when in the form of electronic deposits but also does no good to the economy.

In Switzerland, some individuals are putting cash into real estate, prompting fears of overbuilding. “Holding cash,” said Swiss Bankers Association chief economist Martin Hess, “is simply more expensive than building an empty house.”"

Potentially, but most institutional investors aren't going to buy Treasuries without hedging.

Currencies are seriously volatile and you can lose several years of interest payments on a single move in the currency over a 12-24 month period.

Why escape negative rates of a fixed amount to open yourself up to loss of an unknown amount if currencies shift?

In 2016, most foreign buyers in developed countries could buy the Treasury, hedge the currency, and still come out ahead of their local bonds. I don't think that's been the case since 2017 or so, but am less certain since I don't follow currency swaps as part of my job any more.

I would be curious to see data support the talking point instead of everyone parroting the same line that's been parroted since 2016, because it wasn't true in 2017 or early 2018 and people were still saying the same things.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Cigarbutt on July 19, 2019, 10:13:18 AM
Negative rates in Europe have inverted the US yield curve.

Dan Fuss:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-bond-legend-dan-fuss-is-buying-at-t-stock-51563363000

"The flows of capital from abroad means the gulf between ultralow or negative yields elsewhere and the high U.S. yields will have to narrow, he continues. "

Fed chief Powell said 2 days ago:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/feds-powell-says-uncertainties-have-increased-chances-of-a-rate-cut.html

“We have seen how monetary policy in one country can influence economic and financial conditions in others through financial markets, trade, and confidence channels. Pursuing our domestic mandates in this new world requires that we understand the anticipated effects of these interconnections and incorporate them into our policy decisionmaking,” he said.

While I don't disagree with the statement overall, I'd like to see flows information confirm it.

It was my understanding that this was, in part, what drove the 10-year to 1.60% back in 2016, but since then I thought it had been a net negative return for most foreign buyers to buy treasuries and hedge the currency risk which has eliminated a lot of the foreign demand over the past 2 years.

Is there any flow data supporting foreign buyers?
If the references I looked at are correct, US government debt held by foreign entities has increased ++ after the last recession but has relatively plateaued.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN
However, the US government has issued debt at a rate much higher than GDP growth and somebody/somewhere has been piling up. In percentage terms, US government debt held by foreign entities over total US government debt (as per the Treasury Department) has risen from about 25% entering the Great Recession peaked at around 34% in 2013-6 and is now on its way down to 29% even if absolute numbers keep going up. Remember also that the Fed has recently been a net seller of government debt. Against all odds, rates have gone down despite the increased supply and demand from US individuals and institutions (including banks) seems to be the driving force.
Here is official data showing what happened recently (over a year-period when public debt increased by 960B).
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
From a bird's eye view it seems that the fear and greed spectrum looks more and more like the bimodal distribution that is becoming obvious in other segments which cannot be discussed in investment threads. The US continues to have the cleanest dirty shirt but it's getting dirtier in our beg-thy-neighbor world.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on July 19, 2019, 06:04:28 PM
Negative rates in Europe have inverted the US yield curve.

Dan Fuss:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-bond-legend-dan-fuss-is-buying-at-t-stock-51563363000

"The flows of capital from abroad means the gulf between ultralow or negative yields elsewhere and the high U.S. yields will have to narrow, he continues. "

Fed chief Powell said 2 days ago:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/feds-powell-says-uncertainties-have-increased-chances-of-a-rate-cut.html

“We have seen how monetary policy in one country can influence economic and financial conditions in others through financial markets, trade, and confidence channels. Pursuing our domestic mandates in this new world requires that we understand the anticipated effects of these interconnections and incorporate them into our policy decisionmaking,” he said.

While I don't disagree with the statement overall, I'd like to see flows information confirm it.

It was my understanding that this was, in part, what drove the 10-year to 1.60% back in 2016, but since then I thought it had been a net negative return for most foreign buyers to buy treasuries and hedge the currency risk which has eliminated a lot of the foreign demand over the past 2 years.

Is there any flow data supporting foreign buyers?
If the references I looked at are correct, US government debt held by foreign entities has increased ++ after the last recession but has relatively plateaued.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN
However, the US government has issued debt at a rate much higher than GDP growth and somebody/somewhere has been piling up. In percentage terms, US government debt held by foreign entities over total US government debt (as per the Treasury Department) has risen from about 25% entering the Great Recession peaked at around 34% in 2013-6 and is now on its way down to 29% even if absolute numbers keep going up. Remember also that the Fed has recently been a net seller of government debt. Against all odds, rates have gone down despite the increased supply and demand from US individuals and institutions (including banks) seems to be the driving force.
Here is official data showing what happened recently (over a year-period when public debt increased by 960B).
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
From a bird's eye view it seems that the fear and greed spectrum looks more and more like the bimodal distribution that is becoming obvious in other segments which cannot be discussed in investment threads. The US continues to have the cleanest dirty shirt but it's getting dirtier in our beg-thy-neighbor world.

I think this supports that we cannot believe that it's foreign buyers. Foreign held treasuries have increased slightly since 2016, but at a far lesser rate than the supply which results in them owning a significant % of the total supply less than their peak in 2016 (as you pointed out).

If foreign buyers went from 34% ownership of the Treasury market to 29%, they certainly can't be the cause of the recent drop in rates - someone else had to absorb their 5% reduction along with the increase in new supply.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 19, 2019, 06:49:24 PM
I would tend to believe the BofA CEO because he has the whole of Merrill Lynch at his disposal to find out what's going on (does anyone here know why the Treasuries held by "private investors" has more than doubled from $6 trillion to $14 trillion in the graph from the same website linked below?). But whether or not it is foreign buyers, let us look at the duration risk.

- The Austria 100-year bond first issued in 2017 saw a few more taps some days ago at 154% of face value (yield around 1.1%). If it were to revert to 100% of face value, buyers would get an immediate capital loss of 35%.

- Italy 50-year bond yields were at 2.85% recently.

- One-percent rate increase in the Bloomberg-Barclays sovereign debt index results in a loss of $2.4 trillion.

- Greek and Italian government debt yields less than US government debt. The only way you would not buy US Treasuries is if the European regulators block it. I mean US 3-month Tbill yields more than Greece 10-year.

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/04/whos-buying-treasuries/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 19, 2019, 06:58:15 PM
Apart from the huge losses if interest rates move up even by 1%, the USD/EUR has gone from 0.74 five years ago to 0.89.

Buying the 100-year Austria bond is so much more risky than the S&P 500. A 1% increase in rates would result in a capital loss of 35% for the 100-year bond. It would take a severe bear market for the S&P to give you a 35% loss. At least you know if the S&P goes down 35%, it will surely be back up in a few years.

Today's news as Italian coalition government looks like it might fall apart (their 10-year yield jumped 7 bp to 1.62%):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-19/salvini-under-the-gun-as-clock-ticks-down-on-italy-snap-election

"The spread between Italy’s benchmark 10-year bonds and German debt of similar maturity widened almost 10 basis points to 195.5 basis points. "

Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Viking on July 19, 2019, 09:03:39 PM
RuleNumberOne, i just shake my head at where yields are at today. What i wonder, however, is what if yields fall lower. Instead of a 1% or so move higher, what if we see a significant move lower? I am now wondering not if but when 10 year US treasuries go to a negative yield.

The Fed appears to be giving financial markets whatever they want. We are going to get a rate cut shortly, even with the economy doing ok. Should the economic data get worse, the Market will clamor for more and the Fed will oblige. As the US cuts, the $US will go down. Other central banks will then also cut (or engage in more QE). And we will have a race to the bottom. Lots of things going on that i clearly do not understand :-)
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: SHDL on July 20, 2019, 03:56:16 AM
My guess is that if we do get stuck with super low interest rates and inflation for a long time, the Fed and other CBs will eventually come to the realization that they really need to do some variation of helicopter money.  That should create some inflation and give them room to raise rates without creating too many problems.

The other option that you hear some people talk about is to abolish physical cash so that people have no way of getting around negative interest rates. That should work in theory too but I think will not go as well politically vs helicopter money.

In terms of investing, I think owning high quality real assets is the way to go if all this monetary stuff keeps you up at night. 
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: JimBowerman on July 20, 2019, 04:09:31 AM
imo flows are only relevant in the short run (and even then i'd be skeptical).  Its like saying the reason KO went up in the 90s was because Buffett was buying 1/3 of the daily volume in the late 80s.  Buffett's flow of money into KO wasn't the reason it went up over the past few decades. It was KO fundamentals

We've had a decade now of low interest rates. No QE for 6 years. Can we really keep claiming its the flow of money into treasuries that is keeping yields low?  Maybe it's not low interest rates in EU or flows that is causing low rates in the US.  Maybe the market is correct to expect to NGDP growth for the future and thats why yields are low?

2-3% yields in a 4% NGDP world is pretty normal. If folks think we are getting 6% NGDP growth (and 5% bond yields) that would have to be the trade of a lifetime.  Short a drastic change in central bank policy we aren't seeing 5% yields for a long time...like decades

Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on July 20, 2019, 04:26:57 AM
... In terms of investing, I think owning high quality real assets is the way to go if all this monetary stuff keeps you up at night.

I certainly agree with you here, SHDL,

Personally, I think this capital inflow of institutional money from Europe to the US bond market must be a temporary phenomena, that eventually will dry up. That money is also regulated money, so one can't go totally haywire/heavy in US [USD denominated] bonds assuming large amounts currency risk on a low yield asset. Hedging costs will create an equlibrium, I think.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on July 20, 2019, 05:33:57 AM
If I had to condense what's  happening with respect to interest rates I would say that the world is long central bank confidence and short common sense.

I have no idea what is going to happen and how it ends, but I think it could be a trip to financial market hell like in 2008 and possibly worse.

Going long real assets like real estate, gold, land etc. seems to be one way to escape. Even buying bitcoin seems to me a better bet than buying a 100 year bond yielding nothing. At least with bitcoin, you have a chance to make money (vs fiat currency ), while with a 10” year bond, you are almost guaranteed to be a loser.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 20, 2019, 09:17:50 AM
Viking, negative rates will never come to the US, because they harm the economy rather than help. Bernanke, Greenspan have spoken against it. They don't make any sense anywhere. I think the Fed is making the 25bp cut to expand the NIM for banks.

The ECB force-fed negative yields to their savers/pension funds/banks/insurance companies just so that they could keep Italy and Greece in the European Project and French banks solvent. The upside of driving Italy/Greece borrowing costs so low, has come at a great cost. They have created a huge bond bubble that they are too afraid to prick.

I think the Eurocrats started by ramming the negative yields down the throats of their savers. But then it took on a life of its own as evidenced by the 100-year bond where you take the risk of huge downside for the upside of a 1% yield. At least with the S&P 500 the upside is unlimited.

In the current bond bubble, unscrupulous politicians could probably issue a 0.01% rate 200-year Tulip bond - the bond buyer can choose to get redeemed in either Tulips or Euros (since Tulips are guaranteed to be around in 200 years, and be worth something at least, unlike the Euro.) With the proceeds of the Tulip bonds, the politicians can provide everyone a new car every 2 years, a new boat every 3 years, and a new plane every 5 years.

RuleNumberOne, i just shake my head at where yields are at today. What i wonder, however, is what if yields fall lower. Instead of a 1% or so move higher, what if we see a significant move lower? I am now wondering not if but when 10 year US treasuries go to a negative yield.

The Fed appears to be giving financial markets whatever they want. We are going to get a rate cut shortly, even with the economy doing ok. Should the economic data get worse, the Market will clamor for more and the Fed will oblige. As the US cuts, the $US will go down. Other central banks will then also cut (or engage in more QE). And we will have a race to the bottom. Lots of things going on that i clearly do not understand :-)
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 20, 2019, 10:23:26 AM
Spekulatius, I completely agree. It is hard to believe grown-up, purportedly literate adults could create such an environment.

I was trying to work out maturity by maturity, using zero-coupon bonds. It probably went something like this:

1. One-year bonds.
Eurocrats: "We have engineered the one-year yields to be negative. Why aren't you pension funds buying?"
Pension fund says: "We are not suicidal. We have pensions to pay."
Eurocrats: "Hey, fu. Who do you think you are? You little pension fund, you! The law says you have to buy, just buy it!"

The one-year zero-coupon bond bought at $102 turns into $100 at the end of the year. Soon, companies reduce pension fund contributions and pay the money directly to employees instead, since money in the mattresses/bank vaults is a better investment.

2. Five-year bonds.
Eurocrats: "Here are 5-year bonds. We have negative rates guidance for the next few years. Spread the word and trade this with your friends."

The one-year zero-coupon bond bought at $102 turns into $103 at the end of the first year, and $105 at the end of the second year. Then they head south because they turn into $100 at the end of the fifth year.

By now the banks are busily building more vaults for clients, insurance companies are going broke. The ECB has even started regulating the number and size of bank vaults.

3. Ten-year bonds.
Eurocrats: "Hey, this time we have increased our negative rates guidance and you can trade the 10-year with your friends."

The bonds go up for the first few years and then head south. Since bank employees still need bread to eat and clothes to wear, they have to punish depositors even more to create a spread. By now, all wealthy Europeans have moved all their assets abroad in the dark of night. Housing bubbles and rent controls pop up everywhere.

4. 100-year bonds
Eurocrats: "At last we have found the solution. We created a 100-year Tulip bond, as in, we take real Euros and return Tulips a 100 years from now. You can trade this to the skies. Tell your friends. Spread the word. It is just like a stock without a P/E, your imagination is the limit!"

Bond fund managers: "If we don't buy these 100-year Tulip bonds right now, we will miss our benchmarks and be out of a job. Look at my former classmate over there, he made 55% on those Austrian Tulip bonds bought 2 years ago. I need to take some of that imagination medication he uses."

Politicians: "Everybody lives in a marble palace from now on. You don't need to go to college, even if you do, you don't need to graduate. We will give everyone a big free house and a new car every 2 years. Everybody makes the same income as a brain surgeon. But, to get all this, you will have to vote for me first!"


If I had to condense what's  happening with respect to interest rates I would say that the world is long central bank confidence and short common sense.

I have no idea what is going to happen and how it ends, but I think it could be a trip to financial market hell like in 2008 and possibly worse.

Going long real assets like real estate, gold, land etc. seems to be one way to escape. Even buying bitcoin seems to me a better bet than buying a 100 year bond yielding nothing. At least with bitcoin, you have a chance to make money (vs fiat currency ), while with a 10” year bond, you are almost guaranteed to be a loser.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on July 24, 2019, 02:25:44 PM
Negative rates in Europe have inverted the US yield curve.

Dan Fuss:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-bond-legend-dan-fuss-is-buying-at-t-stock-51563363000

"The flows of capital from abroad means the gulf between ultralow or negative yields elsewhere and the high U.S. yields will have to narrow, he continues. "

Fed chief Powell said 2 days ago:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/feds-powell-says-uncertainties-have-increased-chances-of-a-rate-cut.html

“We have seen how monetary policy in one country can influence economic and financial conditions in others through financial markets, trade, and confidence channels. Pursuing our domestic mandates in this new world requires that we understand the anticipated effects of these interconnections and incorporate them into our policy decisionmaking,” he said.

While I don't disagree with the statement overall, I'd like to see flows information confirm it.

It was my understanding that this was, in part, what drove the 10-year to 1.60% back in 2016, but since then I thought it had been a net negative return for most foreign buyers to buy treasuries and hedge the currency risk which has eliminated a lot of the foreign demand over the past 2 years.

Is there any flow data supporting foreign buyers?
If the references I looked at are correct, US government debt held by foreign entities has increased ++ after the last recession but has relatively plateaued.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN
However, the US government has issued debt at a rate much higher than GDP growth and somebody/somewhere has been piling up. In percentage terms, US government debt held by foreign entities over total US government debt (as per the Treasury Department) has risen from about 25% entering the Great Recession peaked at around 34% in 2013-6 and is now on its way down to 29% even if absolute numbers keep going up. Remember also that the Fed has recently been a net seller of government debt. Against all odds, rates have gone down despite the increased supply and demand from US individuals and institutions (including banks) seems to be the driving force.
Here is official data showing what happened recently (over a year-period when public debt increased by 960B).
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
From a bird's eye view it seems that the fear and greed spectrum looks more and more like the bimodal distribution that is becoming obvious in other segments which cannot be discussed in investment threads. The US continues to have the cleanest dirty shirt but it's getting dirtier in our beg-thy-neighbor world.

I think this supports that we cannot believe that it's foreign buyers. Foreign held treasuries have increased slightly since 2016, but at a far lesser rate than the supply which results in them owning a significant % of the total supply less than their peak in 2016 (as you pointed out).

If foreign buyers went from 34% ownership of the Treasury market to 29%, they certainly can't be the cause of the recent drop in rates - someone else had to absorb their 5% reduction along with the increase in new supply.

I would tend to believe the BofA CEO because he has the whole of Merrill Lynch at his disposal to find out what's going on (does anyone here know why the Treasuries held by "private investors" has more than doubled from $6 trillion to $14 trillion in the graph from the same website linked below?). But whether or not it is foreign buyers, let us look at the duration risk.

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/04/whos-buying-treasuries/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog

home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm679

Press release from May 2019. Pietrangeli is the Director of the Office of Debt Management and a member of the Treausry Borrowing Advisory Committee. I'd take what he says, and the data, over what BofA says any day.

Quote
Pietrangeli next reviewed recent tends in foreign holdings of Treasury securities. He noted that foreign participation in auctions remains in line with historical levels and the amount of foreign holdings had remained steady or had increased gradually since 2014, even as borrowing needs have grown substantially . He concluded that domestic buyers have increasingly absorbed the larger debt issuance since 2014.

Once again, it's not foreign buyers driving U.S. rates
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 25, 2019, 08:15:15 AM
Talk, talk, and more talk but no action from the ECB. They are out of bullets. They have been threatening monetary easing for several months and will continue to wave their empty gun. The easing is always going to happen at the next meeting, it has been that way for a long time now.

German industry in "free fall". Ifo survey lowest in 9 years
https://www.ft.com/content/08010baa-aeb6-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2
 
Eurozone manufacturing activity lowest in 7 years
https://www.ft.com/content/7b7c5140-ade2-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2


Italy debt to GDP higher than before the crisis, youth unemployment in Italy 33%.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: JimBowerman on July 25, 2019, 10:04:21 AM
The easing is always going to happen at the next meeting, it has been that way for a long time now.

Agree with you on that one.  Despite their words, ECB unlikely to ease (but no, they aren't out of bullets, they just refuse to use those bullets.)

I (half) jokingly say: You really want the market to believe ECB will ease?...then have Draghi come out on stage with a lie detector showing his heart rate on a big screen behind him.  Then have him read the following statement:

"we are doing unlimited open market operations (QE) until inflation is above 2%"


Inflation would go up in 5 minutes before any bonds need to be bought.  ECB balance sheet would likely SHRINK if he did that...with inflation rising

I'm only half kidding about the lie detector :-\

Market is sniffing out ECBs weak actions not their strong words

Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 25, 2019, 07:32:49 PM
Someone from Blackrock suggested the ECB should  buy stocks. Why not just buy entire companies Buffett-style?

That way we can complete the journey to Soviet collectivism. It would lead to even greater prosperity.

Companies do not need to generate a return on capital anymore since debt is free. Free-markets have a much diminished role in setting prices.

If we go even further and have the central bank buy everything, we would all be rich. 
 
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: JimBowerman on July 26, 2019, 03:13:18 PM
Someone from Blackrock suggested the ECB should  buy stocks. Why not just buy entire companies Buffett-style?

That way we can complete the journey to Soviet collectivism. It would lead to even greater prosperity.

Companies do not need to generate a return on capital anymore since debt is free. Free-markets have a much diminished role in setting prices.

If we go even further and have the central bank buy everything, we would all be rich.

Would inflation go up in such a scenario?
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on July 26, 2019, 03:54:09 PM
Someone from Blackrock suggested the ECB should  buy stocks. Why not just buy entire companies Buffett-style?

That way we can complete the journey to Soviet collectivism. It would lead to even greater prosperity.

Companies do not need to generate a return on capital anymore since debt is free. Free-markets have a much diminished role in setting prices.

If we go even further and have the central bank buy everything, we would all be rich.

Would inflation go up in such a scenario?

Asset inflation. Which could lead to limited, but ultimately unsustainable, amounts of inflation elsewhere.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 26, 2019, 06:17:06 PM
I prefer free-markets with 1.5% inflation rather than a nationalized economy with 2% inflation.

Whether the ECB can buy all equity and get 2% inflation can probably be answered by the Soviet Union's records.

This FT journalist writes better than me, my thoughts are the same:
https://www.ft.com/content/9a6295f6-aefa-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2

"Our senses have been dulled by increasingly extreme monetary policy over the past decade, so we must try and look at it afresh. What is being suggested here is that the ECB, a publicly owned institution, prints money and uses it to buy equity stakes in private companies. In other words, the only way to save capitalism is to begin to nationalise it.

Global elites have a full-on meltdown every time the UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn suggests some kind of “people’s QE” or nationalising a couple of utility companies. Yet when BlackRock says this no one blinks.

It isn’t quite the same — utility nationalisation isn’t good for big asset managers for starters. But it isn’t all that different either. Public equity purchases distort pricing signals; they are anti-free markets; they will be almost impossible to unwind; and think of the governance issues. BlackRock likes to promote the idea that big shareholders should be active when it comes to corporate governance. What if one of those big shareholders is a central bank? Should they be active too?"

Finally, the ongoing shift towards increasingly bonkers monetary bazookas is surely more evidence that the whole thing just isn’t working. If the big financial firms could see beyond their own business models they wouldn’t be asking for more measures to stabilise the status quo."
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: JimBowerman on July 26, 2019, 07:59:48 PM
Asset inflation. Which could lead to limited, but ultimately unsustainable, amounts of inflation elsewhere.

So...so far we've seen asset price inflation which will eventually spill over into CPI but we haven't seen that spill over yet?  But its coming? Any eta on when you think it's coming?

What do you mean exactly by "elsewhere"? Billions prices project? CPI?

 Are we all having skin in the game and holding massive short treasury positions for this "second coming" of inflation that is always just around the corner? 10 years and counting.....

(if its only stocks and other assets that ever go up, and the price of milk and bread don't ever go up....then haven't we found nirvana and a perpetual motion machine?)

In a society where a central bank does unlimited printing w/ only stocks going up and the price of milk and bread remaining flat - everyone would pay a 0% tax rate and see their net worth go sky high

Its either that or we need to all start admitting (after 10 years) that "asset price inflation"/"shadow stats inflation" /"pushing on a string", etc. etc. theories are exactly wrong
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 26, 2019, 08:20:16 PM
According to Wikipedia, Russia had hyperinflation in the first 6 years after the Bolshevik Revolution until the gold standard was put in.

We could repeat the Bolshevik experience by making the ECB buy equities. They have already made debt free (i.e. nationalized it and removed free-market pricing.) The Bolshevik experience is promising. We could have the central bank own the equity of all companies and thereby generate prosperity.

Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on July 27, 2019, 07:52:57 AM
Asset inflation. Which could lead to limited, but ultimately unsustainable, amounts of inflation elsewhere.

So...so far we've seen asset price inflation which will eventually spill over into CPI but we haven't seen that spill over yet?  But its coming? Any eta on when you think it's coming?

What do you mean exactly by "elsewhere"? Billions prices project? CPI?

 Are we all having skin in the game and holding massive short treasury positions for this "second coming" of inflation that is always just around the corner? 10 years and counting.....

(if its only stocks and other assets that ever go up, and the price of milk and bread don't ever go up....then haven't we found nirvana and a perpetual motion machine?)

In a society where a central bank does unlimited printing w/ only stocks going up and the price of milk and bread remaining flat - everyone would pay a 0% tax rate and see their net worth go sky high

Its either that or we need to all start admitting (after 10 years) that "asset price inflation"/"shadow stats inflation" /"pushing on a string", etc. etc. theories are exactly wrong

I think it's quite possible we've already seen it. It could be the only reason inflation has been 1-2% instead of -1 or 0%.

But again, I'm not supporting the idea. Just not hard for me to believe blowing a bubble that makes everyone temporary millionaires could lead to unsustainable inflation in areas outside of stocks as people liquidate and spend their newfound riches.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: John Hjorth on July 27, 2019, 11:31:18 AM
... According to Wikipedia, Russia had hyperinflation in the first 6 years after the Bolshevik Revolution until the gold standard was put in. ...

Yeah, tell me about it - have you ever studied something more recent, - something like the doings of Elvira Nabiullina (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/today/dir/).

To me, naturally, you haven't, and thereby you don't have a clue about what you're talking about. Please prove me wrong here.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: RuleNumberOne on July 27, 2019, 12:54:07 PM
The obstacle to studying more recent stuff is the news in Europe is not in the English language.

Unlike these hedge funds, I can't go to Europe to investigate when and why things are going to crash. I will open a relevant thread to attract more discussion. I have some urgent questions, I will also read up on Nabiullina.
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: Spekulatius on September 14, 2019, 07:52:57 AM
For the macro folks out there, anybody noticed that the inflation numbers are pointing up and pretty fast apparently. YoY change is ~2.7% now and the monthly annualized change ~3.6% and high 3 month in a row. Of course there is a signal and the noise issue, but this seems worrisome. The inflation target is 2% and we are way above that. I wonder what the Fed officials are thinking about this.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice/ (https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice/)
Title: Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on September 14, 2019, 04:02:50 PM
For the macro folks out there, anybody noticed that the inflation numbers are pointing up and pretty fast apparently. YoY change is ~2?7% now and the monthly annualized change ~3.6% and high 3 month in a row. Of course there is a signal and the noise issue, but this seems worrisome. The inflation target is 2% and we are way above that. I wonder what the Fed officials are thinking about this.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice/ (https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice/)

More concerning for bond longs, but not so much for the Fed yet I don't think.

I imagine that much like employment, inflation is a trailing indicator that always appears at it's "best" prior to a downturn - we'd need to see a sustained rise before it becomes an issue. Not just a few months worth.

Also, I have to believe the tarriffs are a portion of that meaning it's transitory and potentially reversible and not emblematic of an elevated trend in inflation.