Author Topic: POLL: Fed and interest rates  (Read 21851 times)

JimBowerman

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #30 on: January 07, 2019, 08:46:56 AM »
I'm missing the option: "Interest rates should be set by the free market rather than a central bank."

Edit:
While reading all the posts saw rkbabang already made my point.

I'm probably beating a dead horse at this point, but i'd just add that imo, the only way the market can truly set interest rates is if the money supply is also dictated by the market (i.e. private currencies).  I get confused when people start claiming that the fed only started manipulating interest rates post 2008.  The fed dictates the supply of base money, so they are always going to be setting (nominal) interest rates.  The market has never truly set interest rates, and the market certainly didn't dictate interest rates before 2008.  That said, on a personal level, I don't really care whether we have 0% inflation vs 2% inflation.  Real gdp per capita grew about the same in the 1800s (0% inflation) as it did in the 1900s (3% inflation). 


shalab

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #31 on: January 11, 2019, 06:38:29 AM »
Looks like there won't be a hike immediately:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-fed-officials-caution-needed-more-rate-hikes-153756790--business.html

Hope so - but looking at comments from others - it looks like the Fed may still raise rates

Cleveland Fed:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/feds-mester-says-if-inflation-doesnt-rise-fed-could-stop-hikes.html

"If we don't see inflation picking up and we see the labor market staying reasonably strong from where we are now, that may tell us we're not neutral."


Cramer thinks Fed has outdated models and I tend to agree:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/cramer-fed-will-hike-rates-until-there-are-firing-and-layoffs.html

CNBC's Jim Cramer argued Friday that the Federal Reserve's policies are severely outdated, and said the central bank won't stop its rate-hike policy until Americans suffer from "firings and layoffs."

Ah... the guy woke-up!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/powell-says-fed-will-be-patient-with-monetary-policy-as-they-watch-how-economy-does.html

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shalab

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John Hjorth

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #33 on: January 22, 2019, 01:37:25 AM »
Apparently it has not seeped into Ms. Yellen's head yet that she's retired, so she is still yelling.
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Spekulatius

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #34 on: January 22, 2019, 03:48:23 AM »
Apparently it has not seeped into Ms. Yellen's head yet that she's retired, so she is still yelling.

She is now in the speech circus and needs air time to keep her brand intact.
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wachtwoord

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #35 on: January 22, 2019, 05:10:39 AM »
Apparently it has not seeped into Ms. Yellen's head yet that she's retired, so she is still yelling.

She is now in the speech circus and needs air time to keep her brand intact.

Isn't being allowed to give these overpriced speeches repayment for services rendered in her time at the FED (so content is a secondary concern)? That's how it works for ex presidents anyway ;)
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John Hjorth

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #38 on: January 27, 2019, 08:20:13 AM »
What damage?

Since shalab posted, I have had exactly the same line of thinking as Spekulatius. Maybe I'm more or less blind, but - for sure - I can't see it. I may be in need of a cane of the blind, though. The number of yellow rings here locally goes from one to three, as I understand things. I think two rings is for the user where the spouse/partner is still beautiful, despite it was so ages ago, while three rings is when you're blind.

Right now, I'm spending time to counter my blindness by thinking about position sizing for the Big Four US banks.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
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shalab

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #39 on: January 27, 2019, 08:42:27 AM »
May be not damage, they might have created an opportunity. I deployed a bunch of funds in December and got high quality names for low prices.

First Powell said the rates are a long way from neutral when he didnt even know what neutral is:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-markets-may-have-overreacted-to-powells-long-way-from-neutral-remark-economists-say-2018-10-04

Then he said a bunch of things that caused the market to nose dive
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-said-seems-troubling-markets-181403220.html

Then in January he comes out and says he learned China is slowing down from Apple release. All along he has been saying that China is doing great and global economy is great. Then IMF comes out and lowers global growth forecasts.

This guy is Fed Chair for crying out loud - even a casual person looking at newspapers (unless it is all fake news)can see what is going on. He should have more data and insights than an orangutan reading newspapers.

What damage?

Since shalab posted, I have had exactly the same line of thinking as Spekulatius. Maybe I'm more or less blind, but - for sure - I can't see it. I may be in need of a cane of the blind, though. The number of yellow rings here locally goes from one to three, as I understand things. I think two rings is for the user where the spouse/partner is still beautiful, despite it was so ages ago, while three rings is when you're blind.

Right now, I'm spending time to counter my blindness by thinking about position sizing for the Big Four US banks.