Author Topic: The Superinvestors on the Corner of Berkshire-and-Fairfax  (Read 7685 times)

oddballstocks

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Re: The Superinvestors on the Corner of Berkshire-and-Fairfax
« Reply #30 on: December 26, 2019, 08:33:42 PM »
I worked with someone to do this years ago.  Mined the archives from 2003 forward.  Looked at it very differently.

Looked at the number of responses and subsequent return over trailing periods.  Looked at people who posted specific investment threads.

Result was more responses the worse the returns.  There were some stellar ideas with zero to one comment.  And the people posting those would post multiple ideas.  Some solid gold from a few people.

The problem was they never received any feedback, and thus their incentive to post disappeared.

Nice work!
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ValueHippie

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Re: The Superinvestors on the Corner of Berkshire-and-Fairfax
« Reply #31 on: December 26, 2019, 10:45:45 PM »
Hi Nate!

I came to the same conclusion, although the impact of the number of comments was not that large. I did a multiple regression to see the impact of either no comment, at least one comment and the impact of additional comments.

How did you approach your research?

Spekulatius

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Re: The Superinvestors on the Corner of Berkshire-and-Fairfax
« Reply #32 on: December 27, 2019, 03:49:59 AM »
Few responses often means that an idea just takes off. A long thread often means that an idea becomes controversial. and a battleground of longs vs skeptics. The performance in a lot of cases isní that great for those ideas.
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Liberty

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Re: The Superinvestors on the Corner of Berkshire-and-Fairfax
« Reply #33 on: December 27, 2019, 01:30:17 PM »
Few response can also mean much smaller companies that are familiar to very few people. Doesn't mean the ideas can't be appreciated by those few that found them, though (lots of lurkers on this forum, more numerous than posters, I'm sure), even if that's not critical mass to spark a lot of discussion.

Doesn't always mean that smaller companies do better, though. AAPL up almost 80% this year, f.ex., and up a fair bit since the thread was created. Same for GOOG and others..
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