Author Topic: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)  (Read 9055 times)

LongHaul

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2020, 07:04:22 AM »

2020 has been an amazing year of learning.  The Ideology bias was very apparent this year where people's extreme ideologies prevented them from seeing the truth on many issues.
I personally think these ideologies turn people's brains into BOILED CABBAGE.
All one has to do is look at the history of collective ideologies and see the extreme damage that can result.  Communism comes to mind.
While I agree with most of you just said. I think you picked the wrong example at the end with communism. While communism is certainly an ideology, there were very few communist ideologues during communism.

I am not sure of the percentage of people in favor of communism prior to countries becoming communists.   But I suspect it was quite high as it was sold and seemed to offer
the masses something and that is why so many fought for it.   I think it is a great example of the danger of an extreme ideology. 

I think it was a disaster for a host of reasons resulting in millions of deaths, poverty, loss of freedom, etc.



rb

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2020, 08:15:23 AM »

2020 has been an amazing year of learning.  The Ideology bias was very apparent this year where people's extreme ideologies prevented them from seeing the truth on many issues.
I personally think these ideologies turn people's brains into BOILED CABBAGE.
All one has to do is look at the history of collective ideologies and see the extreme damage that can result.  Communism comes to mind.
While I agree with most of you just said. I think you picked the wrong example at the end with communism. While communism is certainly an ideology, there were very few communist ideologues during communism.

I am not sure of the percentage of people in favor of communism prior to countries becoming communists.   But I suspect it was quite high as it was sold and seemed to offer
the masses something and that is why so many fought for it.   I think it is a great example of the danger of an extreme ideology. 

I think it was a disaster for a host of reasons resulting in millions of deaths, poverty, loss of freedom, etc.
I agree it was a bad system but you suspicion is incorrect.

Communism's spread in Europe for example was done through military conquest. The United States gave (gifted?) half of Europe to the USSR. At that point the countries had two choices: they could become communist or Russian tanks would roll into their countries and become communists. The second choice is actually a bit dramatic as at the point these countries became communist the USSR actually had armies stationed in these countries and the controlled the governments. They merely appointed the communist party as the ruling party.

It's pretty obvious that when you have to use a gun to get people to do something it is because they're not convinced by your ideas.

DooDiligence

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2020, 09:04:41 AM »

2020 has been an amazing year of learning.  The Ideology bias was very apparent this year where people's extreme ideologies prevented them from seeing the truth on many issues.
I personally think these ideologies turn people's brains into BOILED CABBAGE.
All one has to do is look at the history of collective ideologies and see the extreme damage that can result.  Communism comes to mind.
While I agree with most of you just said. I think you picked the wrong example at the end with communism. While communism is certainly an ideology, there were very few communist ideologues during communism.

I am not sure of the percentage of people in favor of communism prior to countries becoming communists.   But I suspect it was quite high as it was sold and seemed to offer
the masses something and that is why so many fought for it.   I think it is a great example of the danger of an extreme ideology. 

I think it was a disaster for a host of reasons resulting in millions of deaths, poverty, loss of freedom, etc.
I agree it was a bad system but you suspicion is incorrect.

Communism's spread in Europe for example was done through military conquest. The United States gave (gifted?) half of Europe to the USSR. At that point the countries had two choices: they could become communist or Russian tanks would roll into their countries and become communists. The second choice is actually a bit dramatic as at the point these countries became communist the USSR actually had armies stationed in these countries and the controlled the governments. They merely appointed the communist party as the ruling party.

It's pretty obvious that when you have to use a gun to get people to do something it is because they're not convinced by your ideas.

True, however, ideas can be effective bullets and when the gun is social media, there's no shortage of targets that will jump in front of the shots.

I recently watched a few different documentaries on the rise of the nazi party in Germany. Disconcerting idealism to say the least.

Have we simply had too much peace in the developed world & are just itching for a fight?

I just want truth and it shouldn't take this much effort to get it.
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LC

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2020, 09:53:27 AM »
Thereís a Russian saying to the effect of, if you are in an open field and a sniper has sighted you, do not run. You will be tired as well as dead.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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rb

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2020, 10:02:15 AM »
Interesting!

Normally I would say that those bullets are not ideas but propaganda and the social media gun is a better disseminating mechanism. But then you have Qanon which is weird and dumbfounding. It definitely contains ideas. So i don't know what to say about that.

DooDiligence

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2020, 10:07:41 AM »
Interesting!

Normally I would say that those bullets are not ideas but propaganda and the social media gun is a better disseminating mechanism. But then you have Qanon which is weird and dumbfounding. It definitely contains ideas. So i don't know what to say about that.

One persons propaganda is another persons ideology.

Tomāto tomăto, ketchup catsup, right?

Words can be weaponized.
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rb

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2020, 10:59:49 AM »
I would say that the ideology is the product and propaganda is the marketing. Sorta like the ideology is the purse and propaganda is the ads.

DooDiligence

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2020, 11:35:01 AM »
I would say that the ideology is the product and propaganda is the marketing. Sorta like the ideology is the purse and propaganda is the ads.

Iím sold.
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Cigarbutt

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #18 on: November 19, 2020, 02:43:55 PM »
Do you consider value investing to be an ideology?
That's interesting and tricky to answer so here's Li Lu's answer:
"Iím not ideologically opposed to anything. I am against any ideology."  :)
It seems Mr. Munger meant to stay away from 'extreme' or 'intense' ideology.
True and a reasonable answer. I meant it more as an exploration of my/our own blind spots as value investors. That is usually unnerving and unwelcome but more productive in realtime than mocking scandanavian rowers with hindsight.
There have been many articles and postings about how value investors have suffered because they stayed to close to their "ideology". I wonder if there is any truth in that?
And i wonder if having a punchcard (few decisions over a relatively long period for truly good ideas) "ideology" helps to adjust to blind spots. i'm not sure. At least it may help to resist the temptation to go after what's been recently popular?

LongHaul

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Re: Psychology of Misjudgment Bonus Bias: The Dangers of Ideology (Last one!)
« Reply #19 on: November 19, 2020, 02:51:36 PM »

2020 has been an amazing year of learning.  The Ideology bias was very apparent this year where people's extreme ideologies prevented them from seeing the truth on many issues.
I personally think these ideologies turn people's brains into BOILED CABBAGE.
All one has to do is look at the history of collective ideologies and see the extreme damage that can result.  Communism comes to mind.
While I agree with most of you just said. I think you picked the wrong example at the end with communism. While communism is certainly an ideology, there were very few communist ideologues during communism.

I am not sure of the percentage of people in favor of communism prior to countries becoming communists.   But I suspect it was quite high as it was sold and seemed to offer
the masses something and that is why so many fought for it.   I think it is a great example of the danger of an extreme ideology. 

I think it was a disaster for a host of reasons resulting in millions of deaths, poverty, loss of freedom, etc.
I agree it was a bad system but you suspicion is incorrect.

Communism's spread in Europe for example was done through military conquest. The United States gave (gifted?) half of Europe to the USSR. At that point the countries had two choices: they could become communist or Russian tanks would roll into their countries and become communists. The second choice is actually a bit dramatic as at the point these countries became communist the USSR actually had armies stationed in these countries and the controlled the governments. They merely appointed the communist party as the ruling party.

It's pretty obvious that when you have to use a gun to get people to do something it is because they're not convinced by your ideas.

You are right that many countries in Europe became communist through military conquest.  Good point.

But then there was Russia, China, Vietnam, North Korea and Cuba.   Likely a bigger percent of the population believed Communism would be better in those countries. 
Would have been better for the populations if the leaders just threw out the Communist ideology and picked the system that worked the best.