Author Topic: SP500 Earnings Estimates Over Time - Interesting Chart  (Read 2418 times)

100 Shares

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 89
SP500 Earnings Estimates Over Time - Interesting Chart
« on: April 22, 2015, 02:58:31 PM »
Found this when searching for SP500 Earnings Per Share. Thought it was worth sharing. I especially like the EPS estimates versus months prior to actual, thought that was very informative and interesting

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-EPS-Trends.pdf


TwoCitiesCapital

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2346
Re: SP500 Earnings Estimates Over Time - Interesting Chart
« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2015, 09:04:47 AM »
Thanks for sharing. I enjoy Crestmont's research. I'd like to know more about how they forecast their S&P earnings trend line. Would be interesting to see to determine if I agree with their estimate of earnings.

My main concern for this market has become the occurrence of margin compression on top of multiple compression. Margins could compress by 20-25% easily and multiples could also compress 20-25% easily. The two happening in concurrence (a reflexive type movement for you Soros types) would be pretty ugly. I don't know what the trigger will be to set it off, but I think this year has a lot going for it to get the process started.

scorpioncapital

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1893
    • scorpion capital
Re: SP500 Earnings Estimates Over Time - Interesting Chart
« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2015, 03:18:34 PM »
They should plot a second line on top of this graph - real interest rates.

TwoCitiesCapital

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2346
Re: SP500 Earnings Estimates Over Time - Interesting Chart
« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2015, 07:49:30 AM »
They should plot a second line on top of this graph - real interest rates.

I've never heard of comparing real interest rates to the absolute level of EPS for equities. What would be the reasoning to do such?