Author Topic: Does anybody know any ways to avoid thumb sucking?  (Read 2469 times)

LC

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Re: Does anybody know any ways to avoid thumb sucking?
« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2020, 06:49:00 PM »
To simplify:

Get smarter, accept that you can’t see the future, or learn to see the future.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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SharperDingaan

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Re: Does anybody know any ways to avoid thumb sucking?
« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2020, 06:00:09 AM »
Everytime you buy/sell - 2 weeks after the transaction, you are either going to be right/wrong/no-difference.
That's reality, and all the research/analysis in the world isn't going to change it. Munger just recognizes that whether 2 hours of basic analysis, or 1 day of sophisticated analysis, the outcome is the same. You just feel better about the decision.

SD
« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 05:35:52 PM by SharperDingaan »

Gamecock-YT

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Re: Does anybody know any ways to avoid thumb sucking?
« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2020, 07:24:30 AM »
isn't this supposed to be the purpose of using the punch card method that WB and CM mention? Limited bets until when the odds are in your favor and getting out your giant pie pan to get a large slice?

CorpRaider

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Re: Does anybody know any ways to avoid thumb sucking?
« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2020, 05:01:02 PM »
Don't ask me.  I wrote a post about Buffett's AAPL investment in almost real time that was really kind of gushing with enthusiasm.  Then I went off and probably bought like freaking Viacom or Wells Fargo or some such.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 05:03:39 PM by CorpRaider »

Spekulatius

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Re: Does anybody know any ways to avoid thumb sucking?
« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2020, 05:02:58 PM »
isn't this supposed to be the purpose of using the punch card method that WB and CM mention? Limited bets until when the odds are in your favor and getting out your giant pie pan to get a large slice?

I think an application of the punch card method will lead to more thumb sucking, not less.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

scorpioncapital

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Re: Does anybody know any ways to avoid thumb sucking?
« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2020, 06:09:47 PM »
If they are mistakes of omission, it implies that you should have owned them, and perhaps in large size. Why didn't you? Random chance or you weren't very sure after all? Or the price got away? Philip Fisher says never nickel and dime a good potential investment. In today's world this could mean buying say 10-15% above your buying point. One has to figure out what leads to the thumb sucking. Not sure if Munger and Buffett ever explained why they didn't do what they knew very well. Presumably these are investments in the strike zone that you didn't take.

Jurgis

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Re: Does anybody know any ways to avoid thumb sucking?
« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2020, 09:30:44 PM »
@ReadtheFootnotes: you've got a sweet thread going on here. Unfortunately, there are not that many attractive finger licking opportunities around nowadays.  ::) Maybe I just don't know where to look.  :-\
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SharperDingaan

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Re: Does anybody know any ways to avoid thumb sucking?
« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2020, 06:13:44 AM »
If ‘investing’ was purely formulaic, we would all use an algorithm.
The computer can do it a lot more reliably than you can, faster, and doesn’t make mistakes. We just don’t want to hear that WE'RE the liability, not the computer!

Actual, and forecast, are of course - very different.
You’re there because you can ‘handle’ the ambiguity better than the algorithm can - but thumb sucking is an indicator of process break-down … discomfort with the portfolio weighting, the roll in/out, consequences, etc. AND its risk management. Hard for the ‘diva’, everyday business for the ‘boiler-maker’.

Ultimately, it comes down to what works best for you.
Everyday, the computer gets better at handling ambiguity. You? Not so much – almost by definition, the ‘diva’ thing is a time-limited engagement. Comes the day the computer is better than you, use it – and switch to index trades.

Put diva’s and boiler-maker’s together, and you get an investment firm.
Put the ‘do more – whine less’ diva’s and boiler-maker’s together, and you get partnerships.
Different strokes.

SD
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 06:16:33 AM by SharperDingaan »