Author Topic: The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!  (Read 4266 times)

Parsad

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The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« on: July 30, 2020, 06:24:01 AM »
Normally when you make 10 times your money in 3 months, you are very content and happy!  In this type of pandemic and this type of market, I'm a bit lost, confused and today, feeling really shitty...even though for all purposes, I did the right thing.

Many of you know of the one stock I've made alot of money on, that everyone hates, and at this point I can call it "In & Out"!  That company, formerly run by a brilliant, nearly schizophrenic, paranoid genius, named Patrick Byrne is Overstock.com.

From my estimates of intrinsic value, understanding the underlying business over the years, I pegged intrinsic value around $20-30 per share.  When the pandemic hit, I saw the stock fall to $2.99, which is where I accumulated a large position in my personal portfolio and also bought a bunch of LEAPs.   I already had some LEAPs in MPIC Fund I, LP, that were about to expire in January 2021, and I had bought them when the stock was around $10.  Frankly, before the pandemic, I thought they would expire worthless in January!

As a well-intentioned and observant practitioner of deep value investing, I sold everything when the stock started rebounding...essentially sold the whole kit and kaboodle between $14 and $23, making about 5 to 8 times my money on the $2.99 stock, and the LEAPs for 10 times to 15 times in my personal portfolio...all within 2 months.   The LEAPs in MPIC Fund I, LP were well out of the money, but they too rebounded and I sold them for 10 times what I had paid a year and a half earlier.  Anyone on any regular day and era would say "fine job" whether lucky or not!

Now this is where the disconnect happens for value investors, because many of us deep-value guys, don't know how to just hold on...and often if we do let our winners run, we get burned as they turn quickly.  The stock I had bought alone would have been a 25 bagger today if I held on...the LEAPs in MPIC Fund I, LP would have been 50 baggers today, and the personal portfolio LEAPs that i bought alongside the stock would have been 70 baggers today...all in three fucking months!

Somebody buy me a drink, because this market is killing me even when I make money hand over fist!  Cheers!
« Last Edit: July 30, 2020, 06:54:32 AM by Parsad »
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Parsad

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Re: The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2020, 06:28:00 AM »
By the way, for those over the years wondering what I saw in Overstock.com, all you have to do is read today's quarterly report!  It's a frickin' cash cow, with  massive inventory turnover, and they are sitting on a ton of cash, plus all of their block-chain related businesses. 

The only two guys I feel more sorry for today than myself are Prem and Patrick Byrne.  Fairfax's stake would have been bigger than their investment in Blackberry and Patrick Byrne would have been a billionaire!  Both sold well before the pandemic.  There is no God!   Cheers!
« Last Edit: July 30, 2020, 06:30:57 AM by Parsad »
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ValueMaven

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Re: The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2020, 06:43:51 AM »
WOW!!  Congrats mate.  There does come a point when you should always leave a stub position on -- just to see how far something goes!

rkbabang

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Re: The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2020, 06:52:17 AM »
Nice!   Great trade.  I haven't been watching overstock since I sold the rest of my shares after Byrne left.  So it was completely off my radar. I didn't realize it went down to $3.

cherzeca

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Re: The 500-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2020, 06:53:46 AM »
when in doubt but you have profits to take, take half.  when in doubt and you have losses to take, take them all.

scorpioncapital

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Re: The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2020, 08:03:17 AM »
I'm not so dogmatic about doubt. Doubt can be on a scale. And if I feel my doubt is say 40%, conversely my certainty is 60%, I might keep some.

stahleyp

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Re: The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2020, 08:17:02 AM »
If it would have dropped back down to $2, you would have regretted not selling it. haha Be happy that you made 10x! ;)
Paul

nickenumbers

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Re: The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2020, 08:29:20 AM »
Parsad, thank you for sharing that story.  As you know, it is a long game with lots of poker hands in your future.  This one you earned a lot on, and you had your risk management hat on to boot.  Perhaps deconstruct the hand and see if you would have played it different with the same imperfect information. 

It is all good to leave a little money on the table.

The tide comes in, the tide goes out.  Again, great story!

I need to go learn more about Overstock also.  I thought it was a "has been".
The fastest Cheetah still waits for the lame baby antelope.  ..patience..

drzola

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Re: The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2020, 08:33:34 AM »
Just be grateful you still have a pulse maybe!

Cheers.
P.S. I will buy you a drink in TO if we get back their next April!

Stay Safe all

nspo

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Re: The 50-Bagger I Sold For 10 Times!
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2020, 09:57:23 AM »
Congrats on the play! I think I'm going to make a citizens arrest on anyone mentioning OSTK from here on out  ;D... I had a decent amount of calls that expired in March... Guess I should've rolled those puppies huh?? I feel like vomiting when I look at the price...