Author Topic: The optimistic take on Covid-19  (Read 8115 times)

mcliu

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2020, 10:36:39 AM »
Everyone in China/Korea/Japan wears mask, clearly helps. We need to adopt these practices.


cherzeca

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2020, 10:40:51 AM »
"I was on a conf call today with a surgeon from Brooklyn who said their one hospital has 180 Covid patients admitted with 90 of them on a ventilator in the ICU"

report from good friend who is a pulmonologist/ER in Jax.  10-20 hospitalizations, zero on ventilators/ICU. 

Aurelius

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2020, 03:05:36 PM »
Iíve spent a few hours trying to find statistics for different countries. What Iíve tried to find is:
1. Countries that have tested a lot. Preferably over 1% of the population.
2. Cases (infections)
3. Deaths
Iíve noticed a huge problem - itís super difficult getting the information on how many tests countries have done. Everyone seems to report on infections and deaths. Iím no expert, but youíd think reporting on the denominator would be of vital information!

Any recommended site that tracks: countries; number of tests done; infections; deaths?

Norway has tested over 1,4% of itís population:
Tests: 73.089
Cases: 3.346
Deaths: 14
Mortality rate: 0,42%

Spekulatius

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2020, 03:07:45 PM »
I like this thread.  Thanks for doing a great writeup.  I think the death rate for <60 is quite small perhaps 20-30 bps.  Tons of cases are not being testing as people with no to few symptoms are not tested. Germany has low rates of death for younger people.

The amount of brainpower on this problem is incredible.  Man vs Covid essentially.  Man will win in the long run.

Also - everyone should wearing masks.   No downside - if you have 1 or make 1 and wear it. 
Lower chance of infecting others and protects yourself.  Western cultures need a culture shift immediately.
Masks should be worn - even homemade ones.
https://medium.com/@matthiassamwald/promoting-simple-do-it-yourself-masks-an-urgent-intervention-for-covid-19-mitigation-14da4100f429

However - I think it is best to think in probabilities about this.  chance of 2 month recover vs. 12 months. 
The models I have seen seem to indicate 4-8 months (or longer) for this to die down, unless severe lockdowns.  Very fluid though.

And it really has to die on a worldwide basis because it can easily come back.

I've been thinking about masks.  I'd be ramping up mask production as fast as possible.  But, I've never worn one in my life as far as I can recall, and I'd need one or two a day.  Same for the rest of my family.  A billion or more a week in the US.  I figure it would take many multiples of current mask production.  How possible is that?

Regardless, I'd push hard on masks.  Absent a treatment, this will at the least be around in the fall.

I agree on masks. Itís the only stopgap measure available and it seem to be proven to work. Thatís what the government should be working on, production capcityfor  hundred millions of mask/ month.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Hielko

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2020, 03:41:34 PM »
Iíve spent a few hours trying to find statistics for different countries. What Iíve tried to find is:
1. Countries that have tested a lot. Preferably over 1% of the population.
2. Cases (infections)
3. Deaths
Iíve noticed a huge problem - itís super difficult getting the information on how many tests countries have done. Everyone seems to report on infections and deaths. Iím no expert, but youíd think reporting on the denominator would be of vital information!

Any recommended site that tracks: countries; number of tests done; infections; deaths?

Norway has tested over 1,4% of itís population:
Tests: 73.089
Cases: 3.346
Deaths: 14
Mortality rate: 0,42%
Still very hard to interpreted that data. Because presumably a lot of the reported cases are people who just got infected, just got sick, are just admitted to the hospital etc. Only in 3 or 4 weeks time you will know how many deaths there are from the current sample of 3346 cases. But that's something you can only track if you get case by case information, and you won't have that.

Cigarbutt

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #25 on: March 26, 2020, 03:49:20 PM »
Iíve spent a few hours trying to find statistics for different countries. What Iíve tried to find is:
1. Countries that have tested a lot. Preferably over 1% of the population.
2. Cases (infections)
3. Deaths
Iíve noticed a huge problem - itís super difficult getting the information on how many tests countries have done. Everyone seems to report on infections and deaths. Iím no expert, but youíd think reporting on the denominator would be of vital information!

Any recommended site that tracks: countries; number of tests done; infections; deaths?

Norway has tested over 1,4% of itís population:
Tests: 73.089
Cases: 3.346
Deaths: 14
Mortality rate: 0,42%
What you ask requires a lot of work and integration of heterogeneous data on many levels. Some people are trying and the picture is slowly taking form:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Go to:
What information about test coverage do we currently have?
They give their methodology, the data is regularly updated and the graphs are interactive.

LongHaul

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TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #27 on: March 26, 2020, 07:03:41 PM »
Good site for data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

Excellent resources.

The severe and critical cases rising on an exponential scale has to be concerning though - no? 15k cases and rising logarithmically.

bergman104

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #28 on: March 26, 2020, 08:33:31 PM »
We need to stop comparing this to the flu.

It's worse in a few ways. A person with influenza A (~75% of flu cases) starts to show symptoms within a day and are typically critically ill 6-7 days later. COVID-19 takes 4-5 days to start showing symptoms, with about 5% of people showing symptoms as late as 11-12 day. Secondly, COVID-19 takes ~3 weeks for ICU admission after initial infection. Meaning the time course is from 3-4 weeks from infection to serious disease. The flu is much more dramatic. The slow process is also why COVID is so scary, because people can spread the infection for so much longer. Finally, our best estimates are COVID is about twice as infective as the flu, which also sucks. I think the arguments about mortality rate are valid. We'd have better data if we had more tests. But if the 1.5% mortality rate holds it will be 15x more deadly than the typical flu.

I understand the analogies, but this is not a normal flu season packing into a few weeks. They are different processes and scary for different reasons. Sorry, rant over.

Paper on incubation period
https://annals.org/AIM/FULLARTICLE/2762808/INCUBATION-PERIOD-CORONAVIRUS-DISEASE-2019-COVID-19-FROM-PUBLICLY-REPORTED

Paper on clinical course
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620305663

Influenza Incubation Period
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309909700696

Incubation period and mortality
https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.2020200463

Aurelius

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #29 on: March 27, 2020, 07:41:17 AM »
Hielko: you're right. It's too simplistic to just take cases and divide by mortality, as you explained very well. Nevertheless mortality rates seem way lower in countries that have done a lot of testing and that is encouraging.

Also very encouraging seeing the testing done in Iceland. It shows that about 1% of it's population has the virus - 3600 people. So far 2 deaths and 3 in intensive care. It will be interesting seeing how things progress in Iceland.

bergman: Lots of good information - thanks. I wanna make it clear. I'm not saying Covid19 is just a regular flu - lets get back to normal.

The next 2-4 weeks are going to be very interesting. If the mortality rate really is 1,5%, we should start seeing a lot of people dying in Iceland as their study assumes 1% has the virus.

It will also be very interesting comparing Denmark and Sweden, as Sweden is doing very little to contain the virus whereas Denmark has locked down. So far mortality per 100.000 is nearly identical.