Author Topic: The optimistic take on Covid-19  (Read 10054 times)

randomep

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #50 on: March 29, 2020, 04:48:33 PM »
Testing is coming along.  Abbott has a test that can give a result in as little as 5 minutes.  I also ran across this article about an at-home test.  We could also really use antibody tests.  One of the treatments being investigated proving that it helps somewhat would also be a huge plus.

I think there is a path to decent scenarios.  In the short term, I'm not sure.  I'm somewhat optimistic/hopeful that we'll be in reasonable shape to contain it in the fall.

If only Theranos was around.... it's a shame they shut down......


randomep

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #51 on: March 29, 2020, 05:03:24 PM »

The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming.  As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young.  We will ask doctors to come out of retirement.  We will create makeshift hospitals.  And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare.  Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world.  It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. 

Change is inevitable.

Jurgis

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #52 on: March 29, 2020, 05:59:40 PM »
John Hjorth,

I am not making any judgements. Just reporting. It's going to be very interesting seeing how things progress in Sweden and Denmark...

If in 2-4 weeks there is no mortality difference between the countries - what then?

Skewed reporting is making judgement.
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Spekulatius

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #53 on: March 29, 2020, 06:24:26 PM »

The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming.  As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement.  We will create makeshift hospitals.  And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare.  Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world.  It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. 

Change is inevitable.

You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you donít think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60ís impacted the future of this city. Itís naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee.
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randomep

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #54 on: March 29, 2020, 07:44:19 PM »

The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming.  As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement.  We will create makeshift hospitals.  And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare.  Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world.  It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. 

Change is inevitable.

You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you donít think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60ís impacted the future of this city. Itís naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee.

And you are making theories without any valid observations to back it up.  In the last month, I have notice a sense of unity and cooperation like I've never seen.  These are my observations:

1. senate voted 96-0 to pass a bill
2. Kerry says he agrees with Trump!
3. When I pass a person on the sidewalk, one person will hope on the street and politely acknowledge each other, knowing that we are doing this not out of disrespect but for a common purpose
4. Nobody is rioting, there is no blaming (ya the sniping at Trump is irrelevant in my book); Chinese people aren't being lynched in America
5. 600,000 people died in America in 1918; I just saw an interview of a survivor, from a southern village of 200, she said it brought the community together
6. Germans are airlifting French patients to their hospitals, and the Dr. being interviewed said we got to help each other as Europeans; TBH I felt he was almost saying this is to make up for what we did to you in WWII.
7. Chinese specialists are offering help to Europe and America.
8. Thousands of medical professionals are flying to hotspots like NYC.

I cannot remember a time where there was this amount of goodwill.  And it is totally logical. This is not a disease that picks on the unfortunate and the poor. World leaders are getting it more than poor less-travelled people.  There is nobody to blame.  We are all in this together. If you keep yourself insulated from the virus at my expense, you are still in danger because I can pass it to you!

There will be 2nd order effects.  Cruise ship businesses are toast. There will be less airline travel. Healthcare spending will go up all over the world, I can imagine America may want to have one or two less aircraft carrier in exchange for some  more N95 masks and hospitals.

And you mention mellinenials, IMO they are an entitled bunch, and this is their WWII, their Vietnam, instead of constantly bitching at the establishment and the patriarchal society, they are learning they must take responsibility and do their part, like stay at home when the authorities tell you to.

anyway enough of rant, BTW this is a great time for the market, it's about time a crash like this happened! :)

james22

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #55 on: March 29, 2020, 09:52:22 PM »
Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure...

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winjitsu

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #56 on: March 30, 2020, 03:21:17 AM »
My friend wrote this about possible changes to the US healthcare system for the better. Biggest one for me is hopefully allowing remote medicine doctors to practice out of their state, which would help the field really take off.

 https://outofpocket.substack.com/p/big-changes-coming

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #57 on: March 30, 2020, 06:13:37 AM »
Good site for data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

Excellent resources.

The severe and critical cases rising on an exponential scale has to be concerning though - no? 15k cases and rising logarithmically.

Now up to 24k cases after a single day.

And now 27k cases, though that appears to be tapering the logarithmic growth assuming this is accurate data

cobafdek

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Aurelius

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Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
« Reply #59 on: March 30, 2020, 11:25:21 AM »
Press conference with the Danish Prime Minister

Some of the highlights:
-Social distancing is working. Normal flu is more or less non existing.
-Number of infected people has risen slower than expected/feared.
-Expecting to gradually open up in about 2 weeks. Though emphasizing that the problem hasnít gone away and social distancing is still needed over the next 2 weeks.
-The virus still hasnít topped - worse is yet to come.
-Virus not going away. Expectation/strategy: more and more people will get the virus and become immune.
-A LOT more testing. Two kinds of tests: 1)Are you infected with Covid19, 2) have you had Covid19 already.