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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Aurelius on March 25, 2020, 05:34:21 PM

Title: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Aurelius on March 25, 2020, 05:34:21 PM
There is so much information out there regarding Covid19. It’s hard to distinguish signal from noise. I believe the following information is signal. Hopefully this is useful.

I’d love feedback. Especially if you believe I’m wrong.

Alright… lets go!

Some 20 years ago the Faroe Islands (google it) had severe problems with their salmon industry. The salmon had gotten infected with ILA virus. The Faroe Islands invested in research equipment to do testing for the virus.

Fast forward to the present.

There is no country in the world that has done more tests and tracing per inhabitant than the Faroe Islands. Testing is fast and easy. Thus far 2.482 have been tested. The population of the country is only 52.500. 4,7% of the population have been tested!

Results:
Infected: 132
In hospital: 2       
Intensive care: 0      
https://corona.fo/

Zero critically ill out of 122 infected. Good news! But it would be nice if the sample size was larger.

It gets better… (I believe)

Iceland is, I believe, the country in the world that has done the 2nd most testing per inhabitant - 3,2% of all islanders have been tested.

Results:
Infected: 737
In hospital: 15
Intensive care: 2   
Died: 2
covid.is/data

Mortality rate in Iceland 0,27%.
If we add the numbers of both countries the mortality rate drops to 0,23%.

Note: the true mortality rate should be even lower, as not every person infected will be counted for. In fact you would have to assume the mortality rate probably ought to be way lower, as there is no chance to catch and count all infected people.

The average health of people in Iceland and the Faroe Islands is similar with Scandinavian countries. Age demographics are probably also quite similarly distributed as well.

There’s more good news!

In Iceland they’ve done something very interesting. They have done a large scale screen test of asymptomatic people only:

Results:
Diagnosed tests: 5.571
Positive samples: 48
Indicating that approximately 1% of the general population has the virus.

The populationg in Iceland is 364.000. Extrapolating the findings of the large scale testing there should be approximately 3.640 persons with the virus in Iceland. The mortality rate obviously plummets with these numbers.
https://nordiclifescience.org/covid-19-first-results-of-the-voluntary-screening-on-iceland/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qwhbbzLnPw&list=WL&index=8&t=20s

Another interesting fact they’ve found in the Faroe Islands is that there are two different types of Covid19:
-one type who is more severe, but doesn’t transmit very easily
-and another type who is less severe, but transmits more easily

That seems like good news to me, as it will be easier to not catch the bad Covid19, if you are a person at particular risk and take the recommended precautions.

The obvious problem thus far has been the lack of knowledge about the denominator. Thus wildly exaggerating that statistics on how lethal Covid19 is.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.”

Besides we might get the answer “within days”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

Sweden is and will be an interesting case to look out for. As I understand they’ve done very little to mitigate the spread. Groups shouldn’t gather when over 500! Borders partly closed. Gymnasiums and universities closed. Kindergarten and regular schools still open. As well as public sector and most of the business sector.

Sweden has thus far had 62 people die of Covid19.
Denmark has shutdown almost everything. 34 people have died in Denmark.
Sweden has recorded 82% more deaths than Denmark. Sweden has 74% more people than Denmark.

Quote
Michael Levitt praised Israel for its preventative measures. He said most people are naturally immune, and that since the infection rate in China is slowing down, "the end of the pandemic is near."
https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145

This got longer than I intended. Needless to say I am very optimistic/bullish. This has the potential to be over before we know it!

A lot of people are really bearish people. I get it - it could be very scary.

At this point though I’d be scared shitless sitting on a lot of cash. But that’s just me :-)

Lets see what happens.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Aurelius on March 25, 2020, 05:48:18 PM
I thought this was a good article:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Xaston on March 25, 2020, 05:59:16 PM
Nice thread idea.  I read about the Iceland data the other day and it made me feel better.  This is the first I've heard about the Faroe Islands stuff though so thank you for that.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: RichardGibbons on March 25, 2020, 07:17:27 PM
I'm pretty optimistic about the medium term.

However, the way to look at Iceland is that we're dealing with a disease that has exponential growth and takes 3-4 weeks to kill people.  Few enough people are infected that most of the cases are likely to have happened in the last few weeks, which means that it hasn't had enough time to kill people.  Using the number of deaths as a numerator and the number of infections as the denominator to figure out a mortality rate doesn't make sense early in a pandemic.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Spekulatius on March 25, 2020, 07:41:38 PM
I'm pretty optimistic about the medium term.

However, the way to look at Iceland is that we're dealing with a disease that has exponential growth and takes 3-4 weeks to kill people.  Few enough people are infected that most of the cases are likely to have happened in the last few weeks, which means that it hasn't had enough time to kill people.  Using the number of deaths as a numerator and the number of infections as the denominator to figure out a mortality rate doesn't make sense early in a pandemic.

Yeah, the better estaimate would be to calculate how many people were infected 3 weeks ago and use that as the denominator to calculate morbidity. As far as the two strains are concerned, there are report of people who got infected by Covid-19 twice, perhaps by the two differently strains subsequently. Which also implies that getting infected by one strain doesn’t make you immune against the other. This is similar to the Spanish flu, where two strains existed and it was the second wave that killed a lot of people with a more deadly strain.

Also, how do you explain Italy and now Spain?
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: no_free_lunch on March 25, 2020, 07:42:15 PM
You can also look at the cruise ship that had the infection. It was discussed on the corona virus thread but only 0.16% ended up as fatalities. This on a packed cruise ship with no concept of social distancing.

My only concern at this point is government overreaction.  We can be right on the lethality but still wrong on the economy.

The Democrats are so riled up right now, I mean look at some of these threads we have here, I think they will try to tank the economy just to hurt trumps election prospects. 😯
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: RichardGibbons on March 25, 2020, 08:00:38 PM
You can also look at the cruise ship that had the infection. It was discussed on the corona virus thread but only 0.16% ended up as fatalities. This on a packed cruise ship with no concept of social distancing.

I'd agree with you except the real issue is the healthcare system getting overloaded causing the morbidity rate to skyrocket.  I think that's one of the big problems in Italy.  With the cruise ship, everyone who needed access to ventilators got them, because the system wasn't overloaded.

If the healthcare system were infinitely expandable, this pandemic wouldn't be a big deal.

We can be right on the lethality but still wrong on the economy.

Oddly enough, I agree with you on this one.  The government reaction, particularly in the USA, was terrible, and that's going to kill the economy.

The Democrats are so riled up right now, I mean look at some of these threads we have here, I think they will try to tank the economy just to hurt trumps election prospects. 😯

Yeah, this is what I meant when I said on the coronavirus thread that Trump was doing the standard playbook, encouraging his supporters to focus on the "us vs them" and rally around him rather than focus on his incompetence.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: samwise on March 25, 2020, 08:57:46 PM
Aurelius, what you are saying is that it is possible things are much better than people fear. It is definitely possible since we know so little yet about this three month old virus. The opposite of Iceland is Italy. It bothers me how little of the reporting ever mentions confidence intervals or any measure of uncertainty around their estimates. Those ranges in terms of total lives lost are enormous, from a few hundred thousand to millions.

Unfortunately decisions are required now (even the decision to wait and watch), before a full study can be done. They will be proved right or wrong with hindsight, after lots of economic and possibly human damage.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: cobafdek on March 25, 2020, 09:24:30 PM
There is so much information out there regarding Covid19. It’s hard to distinguish signal from noise. I believe the following information is signal. Hopefully this is useful.

I am emotionally sympathetic to this, and I hope it is true.  I have speculated in the main Coronavirus thread that widespread serological testing might bring the CFR way lower. 

But I think we're still in a fog-of-war situation.  With the passage of time, the fog is only starting to lift, and optimistic information is beginning to emerge, which you've summarized nicely. 

I thought this was a good article:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

I thought this was a terrible article, both in the timing of publication and what Ioannidis was missing.  He is an influential academic and has had a distinguished career.  His article was widely circulated among influential people, and it might have done even worse damage if it came earlier.  It was denounced by several of us in the main Coronavirus thread on it's very publication date (March 17).

Like a typical academic, he calls for more data.  This would be appropriate in any other sedate research setting, like a university lab.  It is completely inappropriate in an interconnected, complex, dynamic situation like a pandemic that plays out in real-time in the real world involving real people.

In the beginning of a potentially deadly event, it is natural to hope for the best, but wiser to prepare for the worst.  Ioannidis doesn't seem to get that.  There is no sense of urgency in his writing.  It is as if he is positioning himself for the future when, if things turn out o.k., he can cite his article to point out how prescient he was.  Watch for his media appearances in the future.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 25, 2020, 09:48:48 PM
The Democrats are so riled up right now, I mean look at some of these threads we have here, I think they will try to tank the economy just to hurt trumps election prospects. 😯

Yeah, this is what I meant when I said on the coronavirus thread that Trump was doing the standard playbook, encouraging his supporters to focus on the "us vs them" and rally around him rather than focus on his incompetence.

I can't argue with the results.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: investmd on March 25, 2020, 11:19:50 PM
I thought this was a good article:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

I'm aware of previous work by Ioannidis and it is high quality. While he hits the mark in saying we are making decisions without data, this article is off side in that he offers no proposed solution. We can see a tsunami coming off shore. The only tool we have to possibly prevent a disaster is social distancing. This article https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/ offers a friendly response to Ioannidis' and conclude with "no choice but to buy time with social distancing"
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: investmd on March 25, 2020, 11:31:37 PM
The problem isn't the mortality rate, it's the virulence - how many people get infected and how fast. If current doubling time in your part of the world is 4-5 days (number of cases double every 4 to 5 days), in approx 6 weeks there will be roughly 1024x more cases (10 doubling times) . So if your region has 500 cases now, in 6 weeks it will be 500,000. Some people will die. Some young people will die too. However, the point is that the hospital system will be overrun. That means people who need usual life saving type treatments (heart attacks, strokes, cancer therapy....) won't be able to be accommodated. Article on the math of pandemic - by using simple math and data available in the news the author concluded on March 12 that social distancing was mandatory to flatten the curve: https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: investmd on March 25, 2020, 11:33:00 PM
I was on a conf call today with a surgeon from Brooklyn who said their one hospital has 180 Covid patients admitted with 90 of them on a ventilator in the ICU - their previous capacity for ventilated patients was 60 prior to emergency expansion. Means that other sick people just won't get care.

There's 2 things people can do: provide emergency services (healthcare, fire, police, stock grocery stores so that people can eat) or do your part to help society by "bending the curve" and be strict in social distancing. If one can change the doubling time from 5 days to 7 days or 10 days or longer, it will prevent the entire healthcare system from being overrun.

Currently most hospitals in N. America are not doing elective surgeries - keeping the beds open for the oncoming onslaught - which has arrived in NYC already.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Aurelius on March 26, 2020, 07:57:10 AM
https://www.cloverpop.com/blog/we-need-a-covid-19-testing-moonshot
Quote
In the whole world, there are only two places that can reasonably claim to be taking a scientific approach to those aspects of this virus at this point: Iceland and the Faeroe Islands. Both have tested about 3% of their populations (that’s about 6X better than South Korea, 12X better than Italy, and 100X better than the US). Iceland is trying to test a representative population, although their testing is still skewed towards ill and exposed people. The Danes of the Faeroe Islands are tracing almost 100% of cases.

Because they have relatively low numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, the information they are uncovering has been hidden in the press. However, their information is currently the most accurate information out there about the spread of infection. Here is what they’ve learned:

Their reported rates of infection in their general populations are about 2X higher than Italy and 10X higher than the rest of the world (about 2,000 infections per million people vs about 200 infections per million or less). This is true even though they’ve tested relatively few people and their samples were still skewed to the sick or exposed.
Their rates of hospitalization per case (2.5% in Iceland) and death per case (0.15% for both combined) are about 10X lower than the rest of the world.
In the Faeroe Islands, scientists doing almost complete contact tracing have found some evidence that one strain of the virus is far more contagious.

This might explain alot:
Quote
What if we had only the information above, and none of the other terrible true-but-skewed information flooding the news about doctors and nurses facing impossible decisions, PPE shortages and piled up coffins? What could explain what we were seeing?

One explanation is that this new coronavirus is at least 10X more contagious and at least 10X less deadly than we think it is. The CDC data could be showing that younger people are being less careful than older people, so they’re getting sick sooner. The Italy and China data could be showing that the disease runs its course in a few weeks, since a highly contagious disease is impossible to truly contain.

Given that information, the pandemic could be summarized this way: A highly contagious virus with a 1-3% hospitalization rate and 0.1-0.3% death rate.

In other words, it could be like the entire flu season getting piled into a few weeks everywhere it hits.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Jurgis on March 26, 2020, 08:03:49 AM
This might explain alot:
Quote
What if we had only the information above, and none of the other terrible true-but-skewed information flooding the news about doctors and nurses facing impossible decisions, PPE shortages and piled up coffins? What could explain what we were seeing?

One explanation is that this new coronavirus is at least 10X more contagious and at least 10X less deadly than we think it is. The CDC data could be showing that younger people are being less careful than older people, so they’re getting sick sooner. The Italy and China data could be showing that the disease runs its course in a few weeks, since a highly contagious disease is impossible to truly contain.

Given that information, the pandemic could be summarized this way: A highly contagious virus with a 1-3% hospitalization rate and 0.1-0.3% death rate.

In other words, it could be like the entire flu season getting piled into a few weeks everywhere it hits.

Quote
The Italy and China data could be showing that the disease runs its course in a few weeks, since a highly contagious disease is impossible to truly contain

This contradicts China data. If disease is highly contagious and impossible to contain, then there should be the same amount of deaths in all provinces rather than being superconcentrated in Wuhan.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: krazeenyc on March 26, 2020, 08:17:50 AM
This might explain alot:
Quote
What if we had only the information above, and none of the other terrible true-but-skewed information flooding the news about doctors and nurses facing impossible decisions, PPE shortages and piled up coffins? What could explain what we were seeing?

One explanation is that this new coronavirus is at least 10X more contagious and at least 10X less deadly than we think it is. The CDC data could be showing that younger people are being less careful than older people, so they’re getting sick sooner. The Italy and China data could be showing that the disease runs its course in a few weeks, since a highly contagious disease is impossible to truly contain.

Given that information, the pandemic could be summarized this way: A highly contagious virus with a 1-3% hospitalization rate and 0.1-0.3% death rate.

In other words, it could be like the entire flu season getting piled into a few weeks everywhere it hits.

Quote
The Italy and China data could be showing that the disease runs its course in a few weeks, since a highly contagious disease is impossible to truly contain

This contradicts China data. If disease is highly contagious and impossible to contain, then there should be the same amount of deaths in all provinces rather than being superconcentrated in Wuhan.

https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM

Not so contagious it is impossible to contain, but watch the video above to see the kind of actions China has taken to contain it. are we going to do that here in the United States (or something even remotely similar?) -- should we?  Just because they were able to get it under control with their actions, doesn't mean we will with ours.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: LongHaul on March 26, 2020, 08:23:39 AM
I like this thread.  Thanks for doing a great writeup.  I think the death rate for <60 is quite small perhaps 20-30 bps.  Tons of cases are not being testing as people with no to few symptoms are not tested. Germany has low rates of death for younger people.

The amount of brainpower on this problem is incredible.  Man vs Covid essentially.  Man will win in the long run.

Also - everyone should wearing masks.   No downside - if you have 1 or make 1 and wear it. 
Lower chance of infecting others and protects yourself.  Western cultures need a culture shift immediately.
Masks should be worn - even homemade ones.
https://medium.com/@matthiassamwald/promoting-simple-do-it-yourself-masks-an-urgent-intervention-for-covid-19-mitigation-14da4100f429

However - I think it is best to think in probabilities about this.  chance of 2 month recover vs. 12 months. 
The models I have seen seem to indicate 4-8 months (or longer) for this to die down, unless severe lockdowns.  Very fluid though.

And it really has to die on a worldwide basis because it can easily come back.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Jurgis on March 26, 2020, 08:31:52 AM
This might explain alot:
Quote
What if we had only the information above, and none of the other terrible true-but-skewed information flooding the news about doctors and nurses facing impossible decisions, PPE shortages and piled up coffins? What could explain what we were seeing?

One explanation is that this new coronavirus is at least 10X more contagious and at least 10X less deadly than we think it is. The CDC data could be showing that younger people are being less careful than older people, so they’re getting sick sooner. The Italy and China data could be showing that the disease runs its course in a few weeks, since a highly contagious disease is impossible to truly contain.

Given that information, the pandemic could be summarized this way: A highly contagious virus with a 1-3% hospitalization rate and 0.1-0.3% death rate.

In other words, it could be like the entire flu season getting piled into a few weeks everywhere it hits.

Quote
The Italy and China data could be showing that the disease runs its course in a few weeks, since a highly contagious disease is impossible to truly contain

This contradicts China data. If disease is highly contagious and impossible to contain, then there should be the same amount of deaths in all provinces rather than being superconcentrated in Wuhan.

...
Not so contagious it is impossible to contain
...

That's not what the OP's quote argues.

I agree with you that virus was mostly contained in China. And I disagree with OP's quote and conclusions stemming from it.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: cherzeca on March 26, 2020, 09:10:06 AM
great post Aurelius.  value added.

relying to another post:  "The problem isn't the mortality rate, it's the virulence - how many people get infected and how fast." 

I disagree wholeheartedly.  every flu season we are indifferent to virulence and mortality..I suppose because we offer a predictive vaccine, we believe we are doing enough.  I doubt anyone on this board would have known before covid-19 that there are 10,000-50,000 flu-related deaths in US every year.

yes the facts have changed with a novel virus, but every season we have some novel viruses (hence vaccinated people still get sick), and the development of antibodies by the vast majority of infected by covid-19 is a big plus and necessary to deal with covid-19...which is why all of our focus should be on ring fencing and protecting elderly/immune compromised.  that we only recently barred visitation to nursing homes is batshit crazy.  that is the first thing we should have done
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: StevieV on March 26, 2020, 10:00:55 AM
I like this thread.  Thanks for doing a great writeup.  I think the death rate for <60 is quite small perhaps 20-30 bps.  Tons of cases are not being testing as people with no to few symptoms are not tested. Germany has low rates of death for younger people.

The amount of brainpower on this problem is incredible.  Man vs Covid essentially.  Man will win in the long run.

Also - everyone should wearing masks.   No downside - if you have 1 or make 1 and wear it. 
Lower chance of infecting others and protects yourself.  Western cultures need a culture shift immediately.
Masks should be worn - even homemade ones.
https://medium.com/@matthiassamwald/promoting-simple-do-it-yourself-masks-an-urgent-intervention-for-covid-19-mitigation-14da4100f429

However - I think it is best to think in probabilities about this.  chance of 2 month recover vs. 12 months. 
The models I have seen seem to indicate 4-8 months (or longer) for this to die down, unless severe lockdowns.  Very fluid though.

And it really has to die on a worldwide basis because it can easily come back.

I've been thinking about masks.  I'd be ramping up mask production as fast as possible.  But, I've never worn one in my life as far as I can recall, and I'd need one or two a day.  Same for the rest of my family.  A billion or more a week in the US.  I figure it would take many multiples of current mask production.  How possible is that?

Regardless, I'd push hard on masks.  Absent a treatment, this will at the least be around in the fall.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: mcliu on March 26, 2020, 10:36:39 AM
Everyone in China/Korea/Japan wears mask, clearly helps. We need to adopt these practices.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: cherzeca on March 26, 2020, 10:40:51 AM
"I was on a conf call today with a surgeon from Brooklyn who said their one hospital has 180 Covid patients admitted with 90 of them on a ventilator in the ICU"

report from good friend who is a pulmonologist/ER in Jax.  10-20 hospitalizations, zero on ventilators/ICU. 
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Aurelius on March 26, 2020, 03:05:36 PM
I’ve spent a few hours trying to find statistics for different countries. What I’ve tried to find is:
1. Countries that have tested a lot. Preferably over 1% of the population.
2. Cases (infections)
3. Deaths
I’ve noticed a huge problem - it’s super difficult getting the information on how many tests countries have done. Everyone seems to report on infections and deaths. I’m no expert, but you’d think reporting on the denominator would be of vital information!

Any recommended site that tracks: countries; number of tests done; infections; deaths?

Norway has tested over 1,4% of it’s population:
Tests: 73.089
Cases: 3.346
Deaths: 14
Mortality rate: 0,42%
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Spekulatius on March 26, 2020, 03:07:45 PM
I like this thread.  Thanks for doing a great writeup.  I think the death rate for <60 is quite small perhaps 20-30 bps.  Tons of cases are not being testing as people with no to few symptoms are not tested. Germany has low rates of death for younger people.

The amount of brainpower on this problem is incredible.  Man vs Covid essentially.  Man will win in the long run.

Also - everyone should wearing masks.   No downside - if you have 1 or make 1 and wear it. 
Lower chance of infecting others and protects yourself.  Western cultures need a culture shift immediately.
Masks should be worn - even homemade ones.
https://medium.com/@matthiassamwald/promoting-simple-do-it-yourself-masks-an-urgent-intervention-for-covid-19-mitigation-14da4100f429

However - I think it is best to think in probabilities about this.  chance of 2 month recover vs. 12 months. 
The models I have seen seem to indicate 4-8 months (or longer) for this to die down, unless severe lockdowns.  Very fluid though.

And it really has to die on a worldwide basis because it can easily come back.

I've been thinking about masks.  I'd be ramping up mask production as fast as possible.  But, I've never worn one in my life as far as I can recall, and I'd need one or two a day.  Same for the rest of my family.  A billion or more a week in the US.  I figure it would take many multiples of current mask production.  How possible is that?

Regardless, I'd push hard on masks.  Absent a treatment, this will at the least be around in the fall.

I agree on masks. It’s the only stopgap measure available and it seem to be proven to work. That’s what the government should be working on, production capcityfor  hundred millions of mask/ month.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Hielko on March 26, 2020, 03:41:34 PM
I’ve spent a few hours trying to find statistics for different countries. What I’ve tried to find is:
1. Countries that have tested a lot. Preferably over 1% of the population.
2. Cases (infections)
3. Deaths
I’ve noticed a huge problem - it’s super difficult getting the information on how many tests countries have done. Everyone seems to report on infections and deaths. I’m no expert, but you’d think reporting on the denominator would be of vital information!

Any recommended site that tracks: countries; number of tests done; infections; deaths?

Norway has tested over 1,4% of it’s population:
Tests: 73.089
Cases: 3.346
Deaths: 14
Mortality rate: 0,42%
Still very hard to interpreted that data. Because presumably a lot of the reported cases are people who just got infected, just got sick, are just admitted to the hospital etc. Only in 3 or 4 weeks time you will know how many deaths there are from the current sample of 3346 cases. But that's something you can only track if you get case by case information, and you won't have that.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Cigarbutt on March 26, 2020, 03:49:20 PM
I’ve spent a few hours trying to find statistics for different countries. What I’ve tried to find is:
1. Countries that have tested a lot. Preferably over 1% of the population.
2. Cases (infections)
3. Deaths
I’ve noticed a huge problem - it’s super difficult getting the information on how many tests countries have done. Everyone seems to report on infections and deaths. I’m no expert, but you’d think reporting on the denominator would be of vital information!

Any recommended site that tracks: countries; number of tests done; infections; deaths?

Norway has tested over 1,4% of it’s population:
Tests: 73.089
Cases: 3.346
Deaths: 14
Mortality rate: 0,42%
What you ask requires a lot of work and integration of heterogeneous data on many levels. Some people are trying and the picture is slowly taking form:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Go to:
What information about test coverage do we currently have?
They give their methodology, the data is regularly updated and the graphs are interactive.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: LongHaul on March 26, 2020, 06:08:48 PM
Good site for data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 26, 2020, 07:03:41 PM
Good site for data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

Excellent resources.

The severe and critical cases rising on an exponential scale has to be concerning though - no? 15k cases and rising logarithmically.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: bergman104 on March 26, 2020, 08:33:31 PM
We need to stop comparing this to the flu.

It's worse in a few ways. A person with influenza A (~75% of flu cases) starts to show symptoms within a day and are typically critically ill 6-7 days later. COVID-19 takes 4-5 days to start showing symptoms, with about 5% of people showing symptoms as late as 11-12 day. Secondly, COVID-19 takes ~3 weeks for ICU admission after initial infection. Meaning the time course is from 3-4 weeks from infection to serious disease. The flu is much more dramatic. The slow process is also why COVID is so scary, because people can spread the infection for so much longer. Finally, our best estimates are COVID is about twice as infective as the flu, which also sucks. I think the arguments about mortality rate are valid. We'd have better data if we had more tests. But if the 1.5% mortality rate holds it will be 15x more deadly than the typical flu.

I understand the analogies, but this is not a normal flu season packing into a few weeks. They are different processes and scary for different reasons. Sorry, rant over.

Paper on incubation period
https://annals.org/AIM/FULLARTICLE/2762808/INCUBATION-PERIOD-CORONAVIRUS-DISEASE-2019-COVID-19-FROM-PUBLICLY-REPORTED

Paper on clinical course
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620305663

Influenza Incubation Period
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309909700696

Incubation period and mortality
https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.2020200463
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Aurelius on March 27, 2020, 07:41:17 AM
Hielko: you're right. It's too simplistic to just take cases and divide by mortality, as you explained very well. Nevertheless mortality rates seem way lower in countries that have done a lot of testing and that is encouraging.

Also very encouraging seeing the testing done in Iceland. It shows that about 1% of it's population has the virus - 3600 people. So far 2 deaths and 3 in intensive care. It will be interesting seeing how things progress in Iceland.

bergman: Lots of good information - thanks. I wanna make it clear. I'm not saying Covid19 is just a regular flu - lets get back to normal.

The next 2-4 weeks are going to be very interesting. If the mortality rate really is 1,5%, we should start seeing a lot of people dying in Iceland as their study assumes 1% has the virus.

It will also be very interesting comparing Denmark and Sweden, as Sweden is doing very little to contain the virus whereas Denmark has locked down. So far mortality per 100.000 is nearly identical.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: investmd on March 27, 2020, 07:55:42 AM
great post Aurelius.  value added.

relying to another post:  "The problem isn't the mortality rate, it's the virulence - how many people get infected and how fast." 

I disagree wholeheartedly.  every flu season we are indifferent to virulence and mortality..I suppose because we offer a predictive vaccine, we believe we are doing enough.  I doubt anyone on this board would have known before covid-19 that there are 10,000-50,000 flu-related deaths in US every year.

yes the facts have changed with a novel virus, but every season we have some novel viruses (hence vaccinated people still get sick), and the development of antibodies by the vast majority of infected by covid-19 is a big plus and necessary to deal with covid-19...which is why all of our focus should be on ring fencing and protecting elderly/immune compromised.  that we only recently barred visitation to nursing homes is batshit crazy.  that is the first thing we should have done

Cherceza - You are correct that thousands die annually from the flu. We know that resulting pneumonia is one of the largest Cause of Death for the elderly. The point you are missing here is how contagious COVID 19 is and the effect on the healthcare system. The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised. In order to create capacity for Covid patients, hospitals across N. America have cancelled non emergency surgery - so if you are waiting to have heart bypass surgery - you will wait rather than having treatment. The only way currently to stop the system from being overwhelmed is to social distance.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: investmd on March 27, 2020, 08:05:09 AM
"I was on a conf call today with a surgeon from Brooklyn who said their one hospital has 180 Covid patients admitted with 90 of them on a ventilator in the ICU"

report from good friend who is a pulmonologist/ER in Jax.  10-20 hospitalizations, zero on ventilators/ICU.

Yes, distribution of Covid is very heterogeneous currently in the US. I also know that Salt Lake City for example has very few cases admitted. However, the fact that Jacksonville or Salt Lake City doesn't have a big problem right now, doesn't diminish the problem in NYC and the threat.

As of last night, the US now has the largest number of reported Covid cases in the world! at over 81,000. By the end of the day today, it will be likely over 100,000.

The whole world is thinking of only Covid. I'd advocate that we as individuals think of what we can do to help with the crisis. There are frontline healthcare workers taking best care of humans, others are working to keep grocery stores open for us to eat, bus drivers are taking emergency workers to frontlines....I would not want to diminish the good of anyone's career. However, If the work you do is not VITAL to fighting the epidemic, what we as individuals can do to help contribute to society is SOCIAL DISTANCING to help BEND THE CURVE.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: no_free_lunch on March 27, 2020, 06:03:31 PM
Canada has announced 75% federal wage subsidy for small and medium businesses.  That has to cover something close to half of all workers.  If this is a long quarantine, Canada could be in serious financial trouble.

Also in Canada, I saw a link on Reddit about a movement to not pay rent.  Rationale being why pay rent when your landlord is a greedy bastard and you are down on your luck. It plays into the legal grey area that landlord s can't evict at the moment.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Castanza on March 27, 2020, 06:07:15 PM
Canada has announced 75% federal wage subsidy for small and medium businesses.  That has to cover something close to half of all workers.  If this is a long quarantine, Canada could be in serious financial trouble.

Also in Canada, I saw a link on Reddit about a movement to not pay rent.  Rationale being why pay rent when your landlord is a greedy bastard and you are down on your luck. It plays into the legal grey area that landlord s can't evict at the moment.

Lmao this keeps getting better.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: drzola on March 27, 2020, 06:13:47 PM
Hey Castanza  Question; where in Canada does one commit Capitol Punishment thru the courts of Law?
Now Please I ask you once again  how hard is it to stay Put and safe my friend,
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Castanza on March 27, 2020, 06:27:25 PM
Hey Castanza  Question; where in Canada does one commit Capitol Punishment thru the courts of Law?
Now Please I ask you once again  how hard is it to stay Put and safe my friend,

I think you’re looking for this thread.

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/what-are-you-drinking/
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: John Hjorth on March 27, 2020, 06:42:04 PM
... The whole world is thinking of only Covid. ...

It's simply just not true, ref. the topic title : "The optimistic take on Covid-19". I'm still at least once a day thinking about when I'll get sex the next time. [Not to be confused with "Was the last time really the last time?" - You know, active [agressive?] approach versus resignation & capitulation.]. I've also been pretty active with regard to keeping the supply chain intact for the household with regard all kinds of groceries [food], beverages [beer & wine] etc.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: DooDiligence on March 27, 2020, 07:57:16 PM
... The whole world is thinking of only Covid. ...

It's simply just not true, ref. the topic title : "The optimistic take on Covid-19". I'm still at least once a day thinking about when I'll get sex the next time. [Not to be confused with "Was the last time really the last time?" - You know, active [agressive?] approach versus resignation & capitulation.]. I've also been pretty active with regard to keeping the supply chain intact for the household with regard all kinds of groceries [food], beverages [beer & wine] etc.

The boat launch near me has been jam packed every day.

beer > covid
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Gregmal on March 27, 2020, 08:19:24 PM
... The whole world is thinking of only Covid. ...

It's simply just not true, ref. the topic title : "The optimistic take on Covid-19". I'm still at least once a day thinking about when I'll get sex the next time. [Not to be confused with "Was the last time really the last time?" - You know, active [agressive?] approach versus resignation & capitulation.]. I've also been pretty active with regard to keeping the supply chain intact for the household with regard all kinds of groceries [food], beverages [beer & wine] etc.

The boat launch near me has been jam packed every day.

beer > covid

Cheers to that. Bud light, Marlboros and walleye fishing for some reprieve
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: drzola on March 28, 2020, 12:07:48 AM
I will counter Castanza's you tube thread he suggested with this one here;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=p_AyuhbnPOI&feature=emb_logo&fbclid=IwAR2Kt1YkJyK_SZMZM-e9bc_qneEwLtNjWTeqKSrA_OMcJsQE2zFeOGM3nnU

I suggest you may humbly accept this counter eh!

Cheers.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 28, 2020, 08:14:19 AM
Good site for data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

Excellent resources.

The severe and critical cases rising on an exponential scale has to be concerning though - no? 15k cases and rising logarithmically.

Now up to 24k cases after a single day.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: StevieV on March 28, 2020, 10:35:03 AM
https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841

According to this tweet, the CDD is going to start recommending masks.  No brainer.  Problem is getting the masks out.

I've read about the "stigma" of wearing a mask.  Sure, 3 months ago if I had worn a mask to work, it would have stood out and people would have wondered what was wrong.  If I wore one next month, seems like it would be fine.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: StevieV on March 28, 2020, 10:40:55 AM
Testing is coming along.  Abbott has a test that can give a result in as little as 5 minutes.  I also ran across this article about an at-home test.  We could also really use antibody tests.  One of the treatments being investigated proving that it helps somewhat would also be a huge plus.

I think there is a path to decent scenarios.  In the short term, I'm not sure.  I'm somewhat optimistic/hopeful that we'll be in reasonable shape to contain it in the fall.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Gregmal on March 28, 2020, 12:13:53 PM
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28963428/espn-burke-symptom-free-positive-test

These are the stories we dont really hear about often. Just the 36 year old mother found dead with her kids and the 22 year old with no underlying conditions....
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: cherzeca on March 28, 2020, 04:06:37 PM
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28963428/espn-burke-symptom-free-positive-test

These are the stories we dont really hear about often. Just the 36 year old mother found dead with her kids and the 22 year old with no underlying conditions....

as far as I can tell, with many of these narratives of "no underlying conditions" there are in fact underlying conditions.  cardiovascular risk, high blood pressure, asthma, etc, one is able to cope normally without outward effect, but this virus takes advantage of the senescent cells resulting from these conditions to become virus reproducing factories, which triggers an inflammatory reaction, which results in pneumonia, which...
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Aurelius on March 29, 2020, 12:52:56 PM
Norway: 

1,59% of population tested - 85.136
Infected: 4.265
Died: 26 - case fatality rate: 0,6%
Average age of victims: 84
% of infected 80 years and older: 4,9% --> locking down countries vs protecting the elderly/vulnerable?
Life expectancy in Norway: 82,5 years.



Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Aurelius on March 29, 2020, 12:58:57 PM
Denmark vs Sweden: lockdown vs open
In Sweden, the number of deaths per million stands at 11, while it is 12 in Denmark.
But there are relatively more Swedish patients in intensive care, so these numbers could change over the next coming days…
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: John Hjorth on March 29, 2020, 02:50:38 PM
Denmark vs Sweden: lockdown vs open
In Sweden, the number of deaths per million stands at 11, while it is 12 in Denmark.
But there are relatively more Swedish patients in intensive care, so these numbers could over the next coming days…

Aurelius,

This line of thinking is flawed. Where is Mr. Anders Tegnell's (https://jyllands-posten.dk/premium/international/ECE12007760/sveriges-myndigheder-faar-kritik-for-coronahaandtering/) downside protection? [For him and for every Swedish citizen]?
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Aurelius on March 29, 2020, 02:56:07 PM
John Hjorth,

I am not making any judgements. Just reporting. It's going to be very interesting seeing how things progress in Sweden and Denmark...

If in 2-4 weeks there is no mortality difference between the countries - what then?
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Spekulatius on March 29, 2020, 04:34:59 PM
Denmark vs Sweden: lockdown vs open
In Sweden, the number of deaths per million stands at 11, while it is 12 in Denmark.
But there are relatively more Swedish patients in intensive care, so these numbers could change over the next coming days…

It will be interesting to see how it works. Something they works in one country, may not work in another. Sweden has a good health care system and the people in general are way healthier than most other countries including the US (much lower rates for asthma and obesity compared to the US or Germany example)

While they are taking some risk, the Swedes are also considered responsible so if the government brings the hammer down, they will probably see pretty good compliance.

I think a lot can be learned how each country approaches this and how they do, but it is difficult to compare this directly and conclude what works in one country will work in another as well without adjustments.

Italy and Spain are socioeconomic and cultural similar and have a similar outcome in this epidemic for example.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: randomep on March 29, 2020, 04:48:33 PM
Testing is coming along.  Abbott has a test that can give a result in as little as 5 minutes.  I also ran across this article about an at-home test.  We could also really use antibody tests.  One of the treatments being investigated proving that it helps somewhat would also be a huge plus.

I think there is a path to decent scenarios.  In the short term, I'm not sure.  I'm somewhat optimistic/hopeful that we'll be in reasonable shape to contain it in the fall.

If only Theranos was around.... it's a shame they shut down......
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: randomep on March 29, 2020, 05:03:24 PM

The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming.  As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young.  We will ask doctors to come out of retirement.  We will create makeshift hospitals.  And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare.  Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world.  It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. 

Change is inevitable.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Jurgis on March 29, 2020, 05:59:40 PM
John Hjorth,

I am not making any judgements. Just reporting. It's going to be very interesting seeing how things progress in Sweden and Denmark...

If in 2-4 weeks there is no mortality difference between the countries - what then?

Skewed reporting is making judgement.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Spekulatius on March 29, 2020, 06:24:26 PM

The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming.  As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement.  We will create makeshift hospitals.  And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare.  Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world.  It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. 

Change is inevitable.

You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you don’t think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60’s impacted the future of this city. It’s naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: randomep on March 29, 2020, 07:44:19 PM

The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming.  As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement.  We will create makeshift hospitals.  And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare.  Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world.  It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. 

Change is inevitable.

You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you don’t think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60’s impacted the future of this city. It’s naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee.

And you are making theories without any valid observations to back it up.  In the last month, I have notice a sense of unity and cooperation like I've never seen.  These are my observations:

1. senate voted 96-0 to pass a bill
2. Kerry says he agrees with Trump!
3. When I pass a person on the sidewalk, one person will hope on the street and politely acknowledge each other, knowing that we are doing this not out of disrespect but for a common purpose
4. Nobody is rioting, there is no blaming (ya the sniping at Trump is irrelevant in my book); Chinese people aren't being lynched in America
5. 600,000 people died in America in 1918; I just saw an interview of a survivor, from a southern village of 200, she said it brought the community together
6. Germans are airlifting French patients to their hospitals, and the Dr. being interviewed said we got to help each other as Europeans; TBH I felt he was almost saying this is to make up for what we did to you in WWII.
7. Chinese specialists are offering help to Europe and America.
8. Thousands of medical professionals are flying to hotspots like NYC.

I cannot remember a time where there was this amount of goodwill.  And it is totally logical. This is not a disease that picks on the unfortunate and the poor. World leaders are getting it more than poor less-travelled people.  There is nobody to blame.  We are all in this together. If you keep yourself insulated from the virus at my expense, you are still in danger because I can pass it to you!

There will be 2nd order effects.  Cruise ship businesses are toast. There will be less airline travel. Healthcare spending will go up all over the world, I can imagine America may want to have one or two less aircraft carrier in exchange for some  more N95 masks and hospitals.

And you mention mellinenials, IMO they are an entitled bunch, and this is their WWII, their Vietnam, instead of constantly bitching at the establishment and the patriarchal society, they are learning they must take responsibility and do their part, like stay at home when the authorities tell you to.

anyway enough of rant, BTW this is a great time for the market, it's about time a crash like this happened! :)
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: james22 on March 29, 2020, 09:52:22 PM
Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure...

The Inevitable Zombie Apocalypse

https://www.facebook.com/notes/john-ringo/the-inevitable-zombie-apocalypse/10150871745012055
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: winjitsu on March 30, 2020, 03:21:17 AM
My friend wrote this about possible changes to the US healthcare system for the better. Biggest one for me is hopefully allowing remote medicine doctors to practice out of their state, which would help the field really take off.

 https://outofpocket.substack.com/p/big-changes-coming
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 30, 2020, 06:13:37 AM
Good site for data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

Excellent resources.

The severe and critical cases rising on an exponential scale has to be concerning though - no? 15k cases and rising logarithmically.

Now up to 24k cases after a single day.

And now 27k cases, though that appears to be tapering the logarithmic growth assuming this is accurate data
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: cobafdek on March 30, 2020, 11:20:53 AM
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1244323983887085569

https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1244428762747289600

Anybody opposed to this idea?
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Aurelius on March 30, 2020, 11:25:21 AM
Press conference with the Danish Prime Minister

Some of the highlights:
-Social distancing is working. Normal flu is more or less non existing.
-Number of infected people has risen slower than expected/feared.
-Expecting to gradually open up in about 2 weeks. Though emphasizing that the problem hasn’t gone away and social distancing is still needed over the next 2 weeks.
-The virus still hasn’t topped - worse is yet to come.
-Virus not going away. Expectation/strategy: more and more people will get the virus and become immune.
-A LOT more testing. Two kinds of tests: 1)Are you infected with Covid19, 2) have you had Covid19 already.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: LC on March 30, 2020, 11:31:02 AM
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1244323983887085569

https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1244428762747289600

Anybody opposed to this idea?

Nobody has ever been opposed to infrastructure spending. It just never happens.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Jurgis on March 30, 2020, 11:46:40 AM
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1244323983887085569

https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1244428762747289600

Anybody opposed to this idea?

Nobody has ever been opposed to infrastructure spending. It just never happens.

Anybody can explain why? (I'm fine if it's in Politics section).

I've heard bipartisan support to infra spending for hmmm 10+ years now? And nothing? Why?
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: chrispy on March 30, 2020, 11:56:08 AM
How fast can we start an infrastructure project?  Do we have drawings laying around for a beltway that we can blow the dust off and start by Easter?
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 30, 2020, 11:58:26 AM
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1244323983887085569

https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1244428762747289600

Anybody opposed to this idea?

I'm in favor of infrastructure improvements yes. Regardless of the impact on the economy and jobs, America needs some form of vast infrastructure improvement. This one of the things Trump ran on and it still hasn't happened yet.

We're absolutely going to need to see higher taxes though to fund it though
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: LC on March 30, 2020, 12:04:15 PM
A couple of reasons:

Shortage of skilled workers:
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/05/06/the_2_trillion_infrastructure_plan_is_never_going_to_happen_103726.html

There is no such thing as "shovel-ready" projects:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/happened-shovel-ready-infrastructure-projects-212123861.html

And this is just the stuff that is publicly visible. My uneducated but jaded view is a boatload of shitty politicking going on behind the scenes in terms of what States get what, what concessions are made, etc. etc.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Spekulatius on March 30, 2020, 12:23:57 PM
A couple of reasons:

Shortage of skilled workers:
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/05/06/the_2_trillion_infrastructure_plan_is_never_going_to_happen_103726.html

There is no such thing as "shovel-ready" projects:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/happened-shovel-ready-infrastructure-projects-212123861.html

And this is just the stuff that is publicly visible. My uneducated but jaded view is a boatload of shitty politicking going on behind the scenes in terms of what States get what, what concessions are made, etc. etc.

Skilled workers shouldn’t be a problem. I do agree it’s the idea time to do infrastructure, with resources being idle otherwise. That’s how the Golden Gate bridge and the Hoover damn was build during the Great Depression.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Jurgis on March 30, 2020, 12:34:39 PM
A couple of reasons:

Shortage of skilled workers:
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/05/06/the_2_trillion_infrastructure_plan_is_never_going_to_happen_103726.html

There is no such thing as "shovel-ready" projects:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/happened-shovel-ready-infrastructure-projects-212123861.html

And this is just the stuff that is publicly visible. My uneducated but jaded view is a boatload of shitty politicking going on behind the scenes in terms of what States get what, what concessions are made, etc. etc.

Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem.

The article quoted by LC seems to say that "Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem" is a myth.

But what about all those people fired from factories in Midwest? IDK. Maybe they are not skilled enough? Maybe they are in a wrong place (labor geographic mobility is way lower than needed).
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Castanza on March 30, 2020, 12:55:40 PM
A couple of reasons:

Shortage of skilled workers:
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/05/06/the_2_trillion_infrastructure_plan_is_never_going_to_happen_103726.html

There is no such thing as "shovel-ready" projects:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/happened-shovel-ready-infrastructure-projects-212123861.html

And this is just the stuff that is publicly visible. My uneducated but jaded view is a boatload of shitty politicking going on behind the scenes in terms of what States get what, what concessions are made, etc. etc.

Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem.

The article quoted by LC seems to say that "Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem" is a myth.

But what about all those people fired from factories in Midwest? IDK. Maybe they are not skilled enough? Maybe they are in a wrong place (labor geographic mobility is way lower than needed).

Or all the O&G rubber necks
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: james22 on March 31, 2020, 08:03:05 AM
With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill. It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country! Phase 4

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245000074167541761
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: drzola on March 31, 2020, 08:31:44 AM
Awesome one Castanza "Rubberneck" now all you need to do is look into a mirror HAHA
I have my eye on you dude as you our very offensive here!
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: KJP on March 31, 2020, 08:50:12 AM
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1244323983887085569

https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1244428762747289600

Anybody opposed to this idea?

Nobody has ever been opposed to infrastructure spending. It just never happens.

Anybody can explain why? (I'm fine if it's in Politics section).

I've heard bipartisan support to infra spending for hmmm 10+ years now? And nothing? Why?

It's neither party's top priority.  There's also a philosophical difference between the parties in how it should be done.  Dems generally favor full government spending and then government ownership of the assets built.  GOP likely favors "public-private partnerships" that would end up with the assets in private hands.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: cobafdek on March 31, 2020, 09:47:27 AM
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1244323983887085569

https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1244428762747289600

Anybody opposed to this idea?

Nobody has ever been opposed to infrastructure spending. It just never happens.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245000074167541761
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: LC on March 31, 2020, 09:51:47 AM
Same with Obama's 800B infrastructure plan of which like, 60B? was actually spent on projects.

Same story, new decade.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Castanza on March 31, 2020, 10:00:21 AM
Awesome one Castanza "Rubberneck" now all you need to do is look into a mirror HAHA
I have my eye on you dude as you our very offensive here!
Please go seek help.

But I meant to say "Roughneck" which admittedly has a much different connotation. But is widely used in the industry to describe the low men on the totem pole.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: cobafdek on March 31, 2020, 10:07:23 AM
Same with Obama's 800B infrastructure plan of which like, 60B? was actually spent on projects.

Same story, new decade.

Pessimistic, naive empiricism.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: drzola on March 31, 2020, 10:29:39 AM
K doc Castanza thanks for the quick and dirty evaluation I shall stay away from you as you clealry our my Lord ha!
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: StubbleJumper on March 31, 2020, 10:30:38 AM
Same with Obama's 800B infrastructure plan of which like, 60B? was actually spent on projects.

Same story, new decade.

Pessimistic, naive empiricism.


It could be that, or it could be realism.  Everybody *loves* infrastructure just until the rubber hits the road.  The real question that needs to be assessed is how many *shovel-ready* projects are available that could actually be initiated in the next 24 or 36 months, and are lower level governments actually sufficiently interested in those projects to cost-share them (not very much infrastructure is federally owned)?  There are all kinds of numbers that get bandied about concerning purported infrastructure deficits and pent up demand.  But, when reality kicks in, there really are not that many that have completed all of the required consultative processes and environmental assessments, and have adequate support from lower levels of government. 

Maybe this time is different?
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: drzola on March 31, 2020, 10:34:50 AM
Big Lord C haha can you read this huh punk?

IMPROVING LIVES BY IMPROVING SIGHT

Good vision is essential for our everyday wellbeing and quality of life. Seeing well enables us to learn, work, and fully interact with the world around us. That’s why Essilor teams worldwide are driven by our vital mission of improving lives by improving sight.





Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Castanza on March 31, 2020, 10:37:11 AM
K doc Castanza thanks for the quick and dirty evaluation I shall stay away from you as you clealry our my Lord ha!

Yeah you should go spend your time posting more nonsense like this:

"If patient is a male and rolls vagina = anus first then repeat test with same used swab in their own throat
If patient is a female and rolls penis = anus first then repeat test with same used swab in their own throat."

"Maybe I should borrow a petri dish from VIDO SK of corvo19 and redeplloy it on to Trumps wife's orifices  and whils  the supposedly Manchild Broods with little mama he may just perish ims a week or sol? Just saying cuz you Americans our Fuked you know dominoes fell dudes so step up maybe and grow a pair maybe Enough is Enough when little Canada can put him in his place and not his own residents geesh"
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: drzola on March 31, 2020, 10:41:06 AM
No see the title of thread that you cut and pasted  from maybe might help you here? what a Joke of a sapien you seem to be wow
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: DooDiligence on March 31, 2020, 10:48:33 AM
[[[ The OPTIMISTIC take on Covid-19 ]]]

                            vs

[[[ The virtually unintelligible negative conversation re: Covid-19 ]]]
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Spekulatius on March 31, 2020, 11:57:11 AM
The Virus might go into the Brain too. It would explain a lot.
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: clutch on March 31, 2020, 12:11:19 PM
Welcome to the "Corner of Covid-19 and Politics"
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: Gregmal on April 01, 2020, 03:14:11 PM
https://www.nhl.com/senators/arena/covid19
Title: Re: The optimistic take on Covid-19
Post by: drzola on April 02, 2020, 07:54:42 PM
This to shall pass.
What if everything doesn’t happen for a reason? What if, while clouds have silver linings, human miseries often don’t? What if money does, in fact, buy happiness? Platitudes create the illusion of a fair and orderly world, thereby preventing us from considering the possibility that it is, in fact, a grossly absurd and unjust world. They can keep us from appreciating the depth and completeness of certain tragedies, because they are designed to help us deal with our circumstances without losing our minds. And even when they are telling us that life is unfair or that nice guys finish last, the platitudes command us to conclude that it is what it is and you’ve gotta go with the flow. Platitudes, hammered into us from the time we first come to understand the language, discourage us from the kind of open inquiry that might lead to frightening conclusions, or that might cause us deep distress and disquiet. If it turns out that “what doesn’t kill you” can still turn you into, say, a blind quadriplegic, the world can seem too awful to bear.