Author Topic: The Warren Basket  (Read 3924 times)

Gregmal

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2019, 04:25:42 PM »
Was Trump winning the Presidency not a ~20% event, THE NIGHT BEFORE? Let alone a year plus prior?

I see no harm in communal brainstorming and speculating. Personally, the best ideas are the ones that overlap many scenarios in the proverbial Venn diagram. They hedge my risks and present me as many ways to win as possible. Always be on the lookout for those.


cubsfan

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2019, 04:52:12 PM »
The NYT poll had Trump at 15% chance of winning the night before the election. Most polls were in that 10-20% odds for Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

CNN Poll - Trump chances = 9%

https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/political-prediction-market-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/

Such is the out of touch media --- totally clueless on Trump's election chances........totally clueless on Russian/Trump collusion.
Hell, for 3 YEARS - the Media has been totally clueless and totally partisan.

Why in the world would you assign them ANY credibility now??

And now we are supposed to believe the media about the Ukrainian Hoax?? 

Try 0 for 3 - and the Media is done...
« Last Edit: November 03, 2019, 05:17:37 PM by cubsfan »

SharperDingaan

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2019, 08:27:07 AM »
Polls are political creations. Phrase the question, and target specific 'markets', to get the result you want.
Betting shop odds are just supply/demand, balanced net of handicapping. Real transactions, harder to manipulate, and mostly live time.
They are not the same things.

To speculate, you need a hypothesis ... 'Trump will leave office early'
The 'something' to speculate on; be it occurrence, time frame, impact of change, trade strategy/how-to, etc.
No hypothesis - and you've just a political discussion trying to look like something else.

SD



Spekulatius

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2019, 08:40:46 AM »
[quote author=SharperDingaan

To speculate, you need a hypothesis ... 'Trump will leave office early'
The 'something' to speculate on; be it occurrence, time frame, impact of change, trade strategy/how-to, etc.
No hypothesis - and you've just a political discussion trying to look like something else.

SD
[/quote]

Yep, some folks suffer from Warren derangement syndrome. They should take it to the political section, or even better to their shrink.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

cubsfan

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2019, 08:44:54 AM »
The main point you might have missed is the clueless/partisan Mainstream Media - so out of touch with America.

Anyone that trusts them, like we used to in the old days, is fooling themselves.

My "speculation" is that Trump will be impeached, but the real damage will be to the Media once again, when he is re-elected.

The damage to the media is permanent and long-lasting - as it will be to the Democratic Party until they fix themselves.

Including the credibility of those suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, like some on this thread.

Gregmal

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2019, 08:52:35 AM »
The point of the thread was to throw around ideas that could work leading into an election where she is the top democrat candidate, and/or if she wins. Theres no purpose to debate if Trump is removed; Pence takes over...same deal as we have now. Lest how quick we forget how 90% of this board got caught with their pants down with their "assumptions" last election. I should go back and look for that thread. It was hilarious.

Anyways, little harm in looking at even long shot trade ideas. At the rate most people discard ideas anyway, it shouldn't take much time. COBF and most "value guys" typically fit the following equation:

here s top quality tier A company = "I'll pass, too expensive"

here s a dirt cheat, average company = "I'll pass, its got too much hair"

Always an excuse not to invest. Like I said, no harm in browsing.

RuleNumberOne

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2019, 09:06:15 AM »
Trump never threatened to harm the economic well-being of people and companies.

Elizabeth threatens to destroy the economic well-being of all kinds of people and companies.

Broeb22

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2019, 10:25:15 AM »
Again I think you people have warren darrangement syndrome.  Also like European derrangement syndrome.  Like I said before, worse case scenario we end up like Germany or France and apprently to you guys that future wasunbareable. You might really dislike those countries but the average citizen there believes their way of life (not just economy-wise) is significantly better than the United States, so its not like they are begging to live in our system of government and politics.  I'm not saying their system is better than ours, but it helps to be open minded to other points of view especially if they are as happy as you are with what they have.  Anyway, I think you'll probably regret hedging as much as you are saying.  Sure buying a little more international stocks would be good, but this idea that she's going to cause the downfall of the US system seems ridiculous.

Last I checked this was an investing forum, and last I checked essentially every European index has gone nowhere in the last decade as the combination of their open border policies, rich entitlements, lax working environments/schedules, low birth rate, and internal squabbling, to name a few, has collectively left the region in a state stagnation.

Cherry-picking Germany as some shining light of economic strength without mentioning the economic destruction in places like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal is at best irresponsible. Germany benefits economically as part of the EU for the exact same reasons that Greece, Italty, etc. struggle.   

no_free_lunch

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2019, 10:29:12 AM »
As far as betting odds, you should be looking at the odds of Warren winning the democratic ticket.   She is heavily favored, her odds are more than double that of Biden who is ranked second.

Only once she becomes the official candidate will we get good odds data on her chance of winning the election.   

At this point, there is a very real chance it is Warren on the ticket.

I also think this is very appropriate for an investing board.   If Warren is elected you are crazy to invest in a number of different sectors.  In particular, I sold out of Fannie preferred's mainly due to the timeframe stretching out past the election.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2019, 10:36:49 AM by no_free_lunch »

John Hjorth

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Re: The Warren Basket
« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2019, 11:08:10 AM »
Again I think you people have warren darrangement syndrome.  Also like European derrangement syndrome.  Like I said before, worse case scenario we end up like Germany or France and apprently to you guys that future wasunbareable. You might really dislike those countries but the average citizen there believes their way of life (not just economy-wise) is significantly better than the United States, so its not like they are begging to live in our system of government and politics.  I'm not saying their system is better than ours, but it helps to be open minded to other points of view especially if they are as happy as you are with what they have.  Anyway, I think you'll probably regret hedging as much as you are saying.  Sure buying a little more international stocks would be good, but this idea that she's going to cause the downfall of the US system seems ridiculous.

Last I checked this was an investing forum, and last I checked essentially every European index has gone nowhere in the last decade as the combination of their open border policies, rich entitlements, lax working environments/schedules, low birth rate, and internal squabbling, to name a few, has collectively left the region in a state stagnation.

Cherry-picking Germany as some shining light of economic strength without mentioning the economic destruction in places like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal is at best irresponsible. Germany benefits economically as part of the EU for the exact same reasons that Greece, Italty, etc. struggle.

And what has all this to do with being a stock picker? - You're posting like an indexer.
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