Author Topic: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED  (Read 13390 times)

BG2008

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2020, 01:46:05 PM »
I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago.

Not.

My cousin is not backing away from 900k house in SF Bay Area suburbs. It will be her primary residence. She is not worry about a downturn and said she will buy more as investments if she see "deals."

I feel Bay Area housing pain.

Last year I was going from SFO to Bay Area and I'm like "there's so much empty space everywhere, why nobody's building". But, yeah, I know, reasons.

I did not go to work in Silly Valley for RE price reasons close to 20 years ago. Yeah, I know looks stupid now. Coulda bought a house below 500K in Palo Alto haha.

A friend has $2-3M house in Los Altos. I'm telling him just sell and retire to some nice place and sip margaritas. Nah.

It's OK, everyone makes their choices.  8)

Jurgis,

Us bi-coastal elites have standards :)  arts, restaurants, and class and a rat race to get your kids into Harvard and Yale


opihiman2

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2020, 01:52:23 PM »
I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago.

Not.

My cousin is not backing away from 900k house in SF Bay Area suburbs. It will be her primary residence. She is not worry about a downturn and said she will buy more as investments if she see "deals."

RE investors better have DEEP pocket and good relationships with their banks.  I've been hearing from people about investors and flippers about to get caught with their shorts down in a big way soon.

Jurgis

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2020, 02:01:34 PM »
Jurgis,

Us bi-coastal elites have standards :)  arts, restaurants, and class and a rat race to get your kids into Harvard and Yale

Iknowrite.  8)
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
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"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

Spekulatius

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2020, 02:54:00 PM »
I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago.

Not.

The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Jurgis

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2020, 03:13:09 PM »
I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago.

Not.

The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast.

lower tax coast? What is that? CA?  ::)

Also, data?
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

Spekulatius

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #25 on: March 30, 2020, 03:20:31 PM »
I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago.

Not.

The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast.

lower tax coast? What is that? CA?  ::)

Also, data?

My house in CA was taxed at 1.25% of purchase value plus an inflation adjustment. I paid about 4K in taxes for my house. I bought a house for a lower value in LI. Tax was 11k. It was considered low because the proper owner fought the taxes otherwise they would be 12.5k. My house  in MA is taxed 1.8% of fair market value (it cost a bit more) - 10k.

So yes, the RE taxes in CA are lower, especially if you are in the house for a long time, because of Proposition 13 and a lower tax rate. Of course adjusted for the enormous prices in the Bay are you may pay more in absolute $.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Jurgis

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #26 on: March 30, 2020, 03:36:25 PM »
I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago.

Not.

The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast.

lower tax coast? What is that? CA?  ::)

Also, data?

My house in CA was taxed at 1.25% of purchase value plus an inflation adjustment. I paid about 4K in taxes for my house. I bought a house for a lower value in LI. Tax was 11k. It was considered low because the proper owner fought the taxes otherwise they would be 12.5k. My house  in MA is taxed 1.8% of fair market value (it cost a bit more) - 10k.

So yes, the RE taxes in CA are lower, especially if you are in the house for a long time, because of Proposition 13 and a lower tax rate. Of course adjusted for the enormous prices in the Bay are you may pay more in absolute $.

I was not talking about RE taxes. If you talk SALT, you are talking all the state taxes.

Yeah, CA RE appreciation has been higher than (most) right coast.

But not because of SALT.
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

gfp

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #27 on: March 30, 2020, 04:32:05 PM »
So I just got a letter in the mail from my commercial bank - not a national bank - that the next 3 loan payments are being deferred for everybody.  This is without discussing it with us first to see if we wanted to not pay for 3 months.  Seems strange to force it on all clients so I assume it was at the very least strongly suggested by the Feds.  Will have to ask around and do some research on why they did it this way.  The interest will be added to principal and they get to pretend all of their loans are performing in New Orleans right now - which sounds preferable to their reality.  Certainly leads to a bing swing in cash flow for the next 3 months.

Are other multifamily investors being told similar / same?



I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago.

Not.

My cousin is not backing away from 900k house in SF Bay Area suburbs. It will be her primary residence. She is not worry about a downturn and said she will buy more as investments if she see "deals."

RE investors better have DEEP pocket and good relationships with their banks.  I've been hearing from people about investors and flippers about to get caught with their shorts down in a big way soon.

opihiman2

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #28 on: March 30, 2020, 05:08:10 PM »
It's happening.  I'm seeing a bunch of homes on Redfin fall out of escrow / contingency and back on the market.  Also 2% reductions in price are starting to happen. 

thepupil

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Re: U.S. housing market about to get SLAMMED
« Reply #29 on: March 30, 2020, 05:30:19 PM »
Where?