Author Topic: Vaccine is here  (Read 3798 times)

villainx

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2020, 09:01:12 AM »
Won't a needle shot of something at -80c be dangerous for us?


BG2008

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2020, 09:02:14 AM »
Good news, but it still sounds like the virus will be around for a while.

The Pfizer vaccine needs to be kept at -80c, has short shelf life, and requires 2 doses. Additionally it sounds like initial distribution is going to be split from Pfizers plants with vaccine produced in EU plants going to EU and USA produced vaccine going to US residents. With expectation of enough vaccine to vaccinate 600 million people total by the end of 2021 (1.2 billion doses). I am not sure if that includes the 100 million doses the US government already apparently has.

Seems like the winter is still going to be rough in USA giving the surging case numbers going into holiday season.

All true.  If I learned something from the 2008/2009 episode is that equity is very forward looking.  Perhaps, I'm speaking mostly from my RE exposure.  RE is supposed to be a 100 year asset (for the right type), so 2020 and 2021 will be write offs.  But if that office or apartment building will be good for the next 100 years with a 90% effective vaccine, it takes away a lot of the terminal value questions. 

rb

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2020, 09:03:47 AM »
Won't a needle shot of something at -80c be dangerous for us?
They'll let it thaw before the inject you with it.

BG2008

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2020, 09:04:25 AM »
I think that a no vaccine / no good therapeutics scenario was relatively low probability and that probability is no even lower. it's a fundamental positive for names dependent on life mean reversion vs a negative for current life extrapolation. the long term secular trends brought about by covid likely remain, but perhaps for less long or to a lesser degree. perhaps not.

I think to have owned anything involving human interaction (in my case urban apts/office) you kind of had to assume that there'd be a vaccine at some point (whether people are getting their shots in 6m or 12m or 24m was less important, at least to me). I don't think much has changed and would hypothesize the degree of these moves has more to do with positioning than fundamentals, but that's speculative.

i trimmed a little today in some of the more dramatic moves in urban real estate.

Pupil,

Great point.  But wuss for trimming.  JK

mattee2264

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2020, 09:13:20 AM »

 Did a bit more reading and yeah only 50M doses estimated to be available by the year end enough for 25M people and that has to be divided between the US, the UK, Canada, Japan and the EU.
So it probably doesn't spare us from the possibility of rolling lockdowns through to the spring and you are right it could take some time to build out supply chains to handle the challenges of mass distribution. So the original timeline of mass distribution by summer 2021 might still be the most realistic outcome.

 


willie2013

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2020, 09:27:52 AM »
Short WFH at high valuations and use proceeds to buy REIT/Airlines/Oil

Gregmal

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2020, 09:36:05 AM »

 Initial reaction has been a pop of around 10% in energy, 10% in financials and 20-30% in travel related names and real estate. Obviously quite big moves but then again these sectors are still well below pre-COVID levels and had already sold off significantly from the summer when the initial re-opening/V shaped recovery fervour was taking steam and the market is so driven by momentum that there might be a much longer rally before the good news is fully priced in. Of course still some uncertainties re approvals/timing of the roll out. But perhaps there is an opportunity here.

Real Estate and entertainment is basically in the clear now. I couldn't understand the appeal of financials/energy(outside of being cheap) vs the aforementioned for the simple reason that once covid went away, so did all their problems, now, just one less. Energy and financials have been lousy investments for the past half decade for good reason. They have tons of problems. With real estate, avoid B/C or worse quality retail and otherwise from here, even after todays rally, IMO, theres still massive rerating going to occur. Its one of the rare instances Ive seen in a while where there is more upside in the safer asset. People will be back in the offices in a couples quarters, retail will then firm up(even ignoring high quality retail assets already trading at sub 5 caps) and the spread to treasuries will be too big to ignore. I actually added a bit more JBGS and ESRT at the open.

Pelagic

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2020, 09:36:19 AM »
Anyone know any public manufacturers of refrigeration units that would provide small household refrigerator size units capable of -80?

Most pharmacies and doctors offices don't have the capability in place to store a vax at those temps. And getting people to go to hospitals/university research centers that might have storage at those temps is likely to reduce the % vaccinated in any meaningful time. People for the most part trust their doctors/pharmacists that they interact with daily but asking them to go get vaccinated somewhere new probably won't go over that well.

thepupil

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2020, 09:49:24 AM »
Pupil,

Great point.  But wuss for trimming.  JK

33% in urban RE to 30%.

2020 would have been better for me if Iíd been more of a wuss and managed risk/concentration better. Thatís why the name isnít theMaster.

Gregmal, I sold all my JBGS today....then bought it all again...tax gain harvest, same with berkshire.

Gregmal

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Re: Vaccine is here
« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2020, 09:52:09 AM »
I actually really like BRK here. Between the buybacks and the expertise wrt to financial and energy, that's probably one of the safest ways to play those spaces, albeit in a big vagina kind of way. There's definitely cheap financials and energy names out there, but I'd rather be a greedy pig in RE.