Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: opihiman2 on March 24, 2020, 09:02:59 PM

Title: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: opihiman2 on March 24, 2020, 09:02:59 PM
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/489379-waffle-house-shutters-365-locations

FEMA uses the so-called Waffle House Index to gauge the severity of a natural disaster.  This is a first for 365 locations to close down.

Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: paperwerks on March 25, 2020, 02:33:47 AM
I have never witnessed such mass insanity in my life and never thought such insanity was even possible.

Tens of thousands of old folks die of pneumonia ever single year and have for thousands of consecutive years.  And we go on living. Now, in the future if someone gets the flu we must factor in that 7 billion people on earth will hide under their beds for 3-18 months and the economic consequences of that and how it will affect companies.

 I must factor total insanity and overreaction of governments into my attempts to value companies from now on. This is a new paradigm. This is all caused by 24/7 social media in my opinion. We never counted the tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of yearly flu deaths one by one breaking them down by date and country and city before. Now we do and people totally freak out like it is a new thing. And the market crashes because of this.

Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 25, 2020, 06:32:29 AM
I have never witnessed such mass insanity in my life and never thought such insanity was even possible.

Tens of thousands of old folks die of pneumonia ever single year and have for thousands of consecutive years.  And we go on living. Now, in the future if someone gets the flu we must factor in that 7 billion people on earth will hide under their beds for 3-18 months and the economic consequences of that and how it will affect companies.

 I must factor total insanity and overreaction of governments into my attempts to value companies from now on. This is a new paradigm. This is all caused by 24/7 social media in my opinion. We never counted the tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of yearly flu deaths one by one breaking them down by date and country and city before. Now we do and people totally freak out like it is a new thing. And the market crashes because of this.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease.

Which do you think is more likely?

Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: mcliu on March 25, 2020, 07:19:44 AM
Not as deadly as originally imagined, but many times deadlier than flu.
But because itís not super deadly, it is also easier to spread.
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: opihiman2 on March 25, 2020, 02:56:47 PM
Not as deadly as originally imagined, but many times deadlier than flu.
But because itís not super deadly, it is also easier to spread.

Well also because it's much more deadly than the regular flu.  I just saw the world death rate on this, and it's incredible at around 4.5%. 
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 25, 2020, 03:06:21 PM
This is a super-flu with a social media following. Thats it.
The reactions have all been magnified by social media as well. Fed cuts rates? OMG thats because the situation is sooo dire! Fed doesnt do anything? What are they waiting for! Theyre going to kill the economy... Damned if you do, damned if you dont world we live in. If you're an investor, just try to get by and stick to the golden rules....Sanity will eventually prevail. You're starting to see the magic equation, unlimited stimulus, free money for one of the first times ever, going straight to the consumer, rates at 0, and subsidies for business who are jeopardized.... I'll pose a simple question, with a simple context. Look at the economic figures present when the S&P was at 3200...jobless rate, wages, etc. Its probably going to be a little bit, but where do you think SPY is when the figures get back there? Higher or lower than 3200? It's a really simple equation that just involves the ability to ignore the short term noise.
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 25, 2020, 04:03:01 PM
I have never witnessed such mass insanity in my life and never thought such insanity was even possible.

Tens of thousands of old folks die of pneumonia ever single year and have for thousands of consecutive years.  And we go on living. Now, in the future if someone gets the flu we must factor in that 7 billion people on earth will hide under their beds for 3-18 months and the economic consequences of that and how it will affect companies.

 I must factor total insanity and overreaction of governments into my attempts to value companies from now on. This is a new paradigm. This is all caused by 24/7 social media in my opinion. We never counted the tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of yearly flu deaths one by one breaking them down by date and country and city before. Now we do and people totally freak out like it is a new thing. And the market crashes because of this.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease.

Which do you think is more likely?

clearly the former
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 25, 2020, 05:00:14 PM
I have never witnessed such mass insanity in my life and never thought such insanity was even possible.

Tens of thousands of old folks die of pneumonia ever single year and have for thousands of consecutive years.  And we go on living. Now, in the future if someone gets the flu we must factor in that 7 billion people on earth will hide under their beds for 3-18 months and the economic consequences of that and how it will affect companies.

 I must factor total insanity and overreaction of governments into my attempts to value companies from now on. This is a new paradigm. This is all caused by 24/7 social media in my opinion. We never counted the tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of yearly flu deaths one by one breaking them down by date and country and city before. Now we do and people totally freak out like it is a new thing. And the market crashes because of this.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease.

Which do you think is more likely?

clearly the former

I dunno. Even w/ social distancing measures in place, NYC is running short on ventilators and making make-shift hospitals and morgues while Atlanta just announced they're out of ICU beds.

Sounds just like another flu to me 👍

Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: SnarkyPuppy on March 25, 2020, 05:12:15 PM
I have never witnessed such mass insanity in my life and never thought such insanity was even possible.

Tens of thousands of old folks die of pneumonia ever single year and have for thousands of consecutive years.  And we go on living. Now, in the future if someone gets the flu we must factor in that 7 billion people on earth will hide under their beds for 3-18 months and the economic consequences of that and how it will affect companies.

 I must factor total insanity and overreaction of governments into my attempts to value companies from now on. This is a new paradigm. This is all caused by 24/7 social media in my opinion. We never counted the tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of yearly flu deaths one by one breaking them down by date and country and city before. Now we do and people totally freak out like it is a new thing. And the market crashes because of this.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease.

Which do you think is more likely?

These people suffer from some of the most extreme commitment and consistency bias I've seen.  Don't waste your time - not worth engaging w/ these people
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 25, 2020, 05:37:40 PM
I have never witnessed such mass insanity in my life and never thought such insanity was even possible.

Tens of thousands of old folks die of pneumonia ever single year and have for thousands of consecutive years.  And we go on living. Now, in the future if someone gets the flu we must factor in that 7 billion people on earth will hide under their beds for 3-18 months and the economic consequences of that and how it will affect companies.

 I must factor total insanity and overreaction of governments into my attempts to value companies from now on. This is a new paradigm. This is all caused by 24/7 social media in my opinion. We never counted the tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of yearly flu deaths one by one breaking them down by date and country and city before. Now we do and people totally freak out like it is a new thing. And the market crashes because of this.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease.

Which do you think is more likely?

These people suffer from some of the most extreme commitment and consistency bias I've seen.  Don't waste your time - not worth engaging w/ these people

Or, maybe, you know, on a investment board, some people look at a short term situation, call it the flu, call it coronavirus, call it whatever you please, and realize that there will be a time where this passes and that in between the baby often gets thrown out with the bath water and as such find the overreaction to be silly. Or that there will opportunities both long and short, and that "all cash" in a zero rate environment, or "shorting RCL" with a 200%+ annualized carry isn't the only investment on the table. Has little to do with commitment bias. Has to do with your outlook and time horizon. A consistency bias would be, I dont know, riding a second rate FNMA thesis through the greatest bull market in history, clinging to every bs legal filing, and then still seeing a 60% drawdown via the zombie apocalypse virus. To each their own.
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: Santayana on March 25, 2020, 05:41:23 PM
I have never witnessed such mass insanity in my life and never thought such insanity was even possible.

Tens of thousands of old folks die of pneumonia ever single year and have for thousands of consecutive years.  And we go on living. Now, in the future if someone gets the flu we must factor in that 7 billion people on earth will hide under their beds for 3-18 months and the economic consequences of that and how it will affect companies.

 I must factor total insanity and overreaction of governments into my attempts to value companies from now on. This is a new paradigm. This is all caused by 24/7 social media in my opinion. We never counted the tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of yearly flu deaths one by one breaking them down by date and country and city before. Now we do and people totally freak out like it is a new thing. And the market crashes because of this.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease.

Which do you think is more likely?

The fact that he thinks tens of thousands have died of pneumonia every year for thousands of years makes me question his knowledge of statistics and/or world population trends.   
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: no_free_lunch on March 25, 2020, 05:41:30 PM
Testing is still right here in Canada. Family member has shortness of breath, fever and fatigue.  They are in their 30s. Talked to doctor via chat and was told to monitor but testing not needed yet.

What this tells me is the case count is definitely understated here.

Canada put the brakes on about a week ago so hopefully our stats peak in the next week or so. So far the hospitals are managing fine.  Albeit at the expense of minor procedures.
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: SnarkyPuppy on March 25, 2020, 08:37:06 PM
I have never witnessed such mass insanity in my life and never thought such insanity was even possible.

Tens of thousands of old folks die of pneumonia ever single year and have for thousands of consecutive years.  And we go on living. Now, in the future if someone gets the flu we must factor in that 7 billion people on earth will hide under their beds for 3-18 months and the economic consequences of that and how it will affect companies.

 I must factor total insanity and overreaction of governments into my attempts to value companies from now on. This is a new paradigm. This is all caused by 24/7 social media in my opinion. We never counted the tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of yearly flu deaths one by one breaking them down by date and country and city before. Now we do and people totally freak out like it is a new thing. And the market crashes because of this.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease.

Which do you think is more likely?

These people suffer from some of the most extreme commitment and consistency bias I've seen.  Don't waste your time - not worth engaging w/ these people

Or, maybe, you know, on a investment board, some people look at a short term situation, call it the flu, call it coronavirus, call it whatever you please, and realize that there will be a time where this passes and that in between the baby often gets thrown out with the bath water and as such find the overreaction to be silly. Or that there will opportunities both long and short, and that "all cash" in a zero rate environment, or "shorting RCL" with a 200%+ annualized carry isn't the only investment on the table. Has little to do with commitment bias. Has to do with your outlook and time horizon. A consistency bias would be, I dont know, riding a second rate FNMA thesis through the greatest bull market in history, clinging to every bs legal filing, and then still seeing a 60% drawdown via the zombie apocalypse virus. To each their own.

I entered the majority of my FNMAS position in January 2016 - 24% cagr to todays low price.  Thanks for the compliment?

The post I was responding to wasn't investment specific - it was around the severity of the situation which is clearly not "social media" driven to any rational person. 
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: Cigarbutt on March 26, 2020, 05:40:34 AM
...
The post I was responding to wasn't investment specific - it was around the severity of the situation which is clearly not "social media" driven to any rational person.
There is a threat and this is still an ill defined threat. So there is a potential for inflation.

The announcement could be portrayed as a stronghold of value whose derived value is also used to gauge the severity of natural disasters and which is falling on hard times.

The announcement (now 418 closed it seems, with 1574 remaining open) does not make a direct link to the virus and does not indicate if the closure is permanent or temporary and also advertises carry-out orders.

The business, with its 24-hr model, doesn't seem to be as successful in the north (where most 'closures" are happening) and while it's likely that it's virus-related, it's not clear if it is directly related to the virus or related to the public policy reaction to the virus.

Yesterday, I took a walk and brought final papers to my accountant's office (it's tax season even if deadlines are delayed). The two people at the reception looked at me as if I was a terrorist (with a look that said how dare you come here) and directed me to a plastic container in the corner of the entrance. They are treating pieces of paper like radioactive material and I wonder what this means, in terms of potential inflation.
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: opihiman2 on March 26, 2020, 08:54:08 PM
I really can't make up my mind whether this pandemic is just an overblown viral infection like a bad seasonal flu, or way worse.  I've been reading so much conflicting opinions from various experts like Nobel laureates, and doctors at Stanford saying this is just super overblown.

Regardless, it has caused a huge supply / demand shock to the economy.  Like, way worse than anything we've ever seen.  And, I wonder how it bounces back.  Like, if everyone decides alright, this is stupid, let's open up the economy again.  How long do you guys think we go back to normal? 

I'm waffling on my opinion like waffle house waffles on their waffles. 

Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: Casey on March 26, 2020, 09:08:49 PM
I really can't make up my mind whether this pandemic is just an overblown viral infection like a bad seasonal flu, or way worse.  I've been reading so much conflicting opinions from various experts like Nobel laureates, and doctors at Stanford saying this is just super overblown.

Regardless, it has caused a huge supply / demand shock to the economy.  Like, way worse than anything we've ever seen.  And, I wonder how it bounces back.  Like, if everyone decides alright, this is stupid, let's open up the economy again.  How long do you guys think we go back to normal? 

I'm waffling on my opinion like waffle house waffles on their waffles.

Worst flu season in 4 decades was 80k deaths. That's with everyone behaving normally.

This is going to get to 80k deaths with 75% of the country hiding inside and wearing face masks to the grocery store.


BTW, if the Stanford guy is Ioannadis then the article you read was misleading. It's also dangerous, because .. yeah .. you'd think someone with 5 different Stanford degrees would observe basic things like: If the hospitals are full to the brim the case fatality rate goes up! Time is of the essence with something like this and you need public health experts to be giving advice that's ... better.
Title: Re: Waffle House closing 365 locations due to coronavirus
Post by: opihiman2 on March 27, 2020, 11:43:55 PM
I really can't make up my mind whether this pandemic is just an overblown viral infection like a bad seasonal flu, or way worse.  I've been reading so much conflicting opinions from various experts like Nobel laureates, and doctors at Stanford saying this is just super overblown.

Regardless, it has caused a huge supply / demand shock to the economy.  Like, way worse than anything we've ever seen.  And, I wonder how it bounces back.  Like, if everyone decides alright, this is stupid, let's open up the economy again.  How long do you guys think we go back to normal? 

I'm waffling on my opinion like waffle house waffles on their waffles.

Worst flu season in 4 decades was 80k deaths. That's with everyone behaving normally.

This is going to get to 80k deaths with 75% of the country hiding inside and wearing face masks to the grocery store.


BTW, if the Stanford guy is Ioannadis then the article you read was misleading. It's also dangerous, because .. yeah .. you'd think someone with 5 different Stanford degrees would observe basic things like: If the hospitals are full to the brim the case fatality rate goes up! Time is of the essence with something like this and you need public health experts to be giving advice that's ... better.

Yeah, you right.  Man, i just spent the last hour reading the New York Times, and I'm back to thinking this is going to be the Great Depression 2.