Author Topic: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically  (Read 9211 times)

muscleman

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Both sides have been adding lots of militants along the entire China-India border but only Indian media have been reporting this.

People in the western world would think it is irrational for the war to break out because there is nothing to gain from it. But they probably don't understand the Chinese government. In the past, leaders used wars to grab power and gain full control of the army. The 1979 China-Vietnam war was the typical example for Xiaoping Deng to grab power.

The past presidents have been forcing army generals to state their loyalty to the president, and that created a big problem. When the next president came in power, he tries everything he could to remove these generals, and force the new generals to state their loyalty. Now with the current president, no generals want to state their loyalty anymore because they don't want to go to jail when the next president comes. So the current president is very upset with that. I think he may plan the China-India war on purpose for his personal gains.
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stahleyp

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2020, 05:15:57 AM »
Paul

petec

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2020, 05:47:52 AM »
It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

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muscleman

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2020, 10:24:05 AM »
It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol.
So if it is not India, which country else is a better target?

And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2020, 10:28:19 AM by muscleman »
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mcliu

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2020, 11:25:38 AM »
That escalated quickly.

"India’s army said on Tuesday 20 of its soldiers had been killed in clashes with Chinese troops at a disputed border site, in a major escalation of a weeks-long standoff between the two Asian giants in the western Himalayas."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china/india-china-troops-clash-at-himalayan-border-casualties-on-both-sides-idUSKBN23N0ZU

arcube

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2020, 11:33:40 AM »
It is in China's best interest to create chaos so that India comes off as an unstable place for many businesses to pivot from China to India. The good thing right now is that India has a very strong leader so no bullying will work. If this escalates, it will be to Trump's advantage to really take on China or broker peace and look good. China is playing this multi prolonged warfare against India through Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. At some point, India  will say Fuck It and go on offensive even though it is not her nature. India (current ruling party) doesn't have a lot to loose at this stage, China surely does. Let's see what the next couple weeks bring.

It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol.
So if it is not India, which country else is a better target?

And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.

muscleman

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2020, 03:09:24 PM »
It is in China's best interest to create chaos so that India comes off as an unstable place for many businesses to pivot from China to India. The good thing right now is that India has a very strong leader so no bullying will work. If this escalates, it will be to Trump's advantage to really take on China or broker peace and look good. China is playing this multi prolonged warfare against India through Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. At some point, India  will say Fuck It and go on offensive even though it is not her nature. India (current ruling party) doesn't have a lot to loose at this stage, China surely does. Let's see what the next couple weeks bring.

It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol.
So if it is not India, which country else is a better target?

And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.

I think a China-Vietnam type of war in 1979 will be the play book. A quick war ending in weeks.
Back in 1962 India invaded this area with a lot of its elite troops, far outnumbered the Chinese army, but got defeated. I think the same could happen again.
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rranjan

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2020, 04:29:21 PM »
American intelligence believes 35 Chinese troops died, including one senior officer, a source familiar with that assessment tells U.S. News. The incident took place during a meeting in the mountainous region between the two sides – both of which had agreed to disarm – to determine how the two militaries would safely withdraw their presences from the region.

The meeting grew tense and resulted in a physical confrontation between the troops. According to the assessment, all of the casualties were from the use of batons and knives and from falls from the steep topography, the source says.

According to the U.S. assessment, the Chinese government considers the casualties among their troops as a humiliation for its armed forces and has not confirmed the numbers for fear of emboldening other adversaries, the source says.

The sources who spoke with the Times said 43 Chinese troops died in the fighting.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades

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So it's esclating, but all casualties seems to be due to close priximity physical fights. Not really gun fights or anynthing like that.

I am pretty sure that both sides will try to find solution.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2020, 04:34:09 PM by rranjan »

muscleman

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2020, 07:42:47 AM »
American intelligence believes 35 Chinese troops died, including one senior officer, a source familiar with that assessment tells U.S. News. The incident took place during a meeting in the mountainous region between the two sides – both of which had agreed to disarm – to determine how the two militaries would safely withdraw their presences from the region.

The meeting grew tense and resulted in a physical confrontation between the troops. According to the assessment, all of the casualties were from the use of batons and knives and from falls from the steep topography, the source says.

According to the U.S. assessment, the Chinese government considers the casualties among their troops as a humiliation for its armed forces and has not confirmed the numbers for fear of emboldening other adversaries, the source says.

The sources who spoke with the Times said 43 Chinese troops died in the fighting.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades

-----------------

So it's esclating, but all casualties seems to be due to close priximity physical fights. Not really gun fights or anynthing like that.

I am pretty sure that both sides will try to find solution.

The Chinese officials refused to disclose these numbers so far, which makes me think that the casualties is much higher than Indians and it would be a disgrace to disclose those.

I think the war risk has risen dramatically to 70% since yesterday, as Modi ordered big rallies across multiple Indian cities and carried the dead bodies of these Indian soldiers. Now the Indian people have been emotionally motivated, and there is very little room for Modi to back down his tough stance.
Then today, he ordered the Indian soldiers to use firearms at their own judgement without further need for approval.

On the China side, I think Xi wants the war to solidify his grab of power on the army.
So it seems like the stage is all set for the war.
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rkbabang

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2020, 12:02:17 PM »
I am pretty sure that both sides will try to find solution.

This is what everyone thought on all sides before WWI.  Politics is stupid and leads to unimaginable horrors over and over again.