Author Topic: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically  (Read 5835 times)

aryadhana

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2020, 03:14:36 PM »
I think mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence actually go a long way insofar as a conflict between India and China is concerned, maybe even exceptionally so among former or current pairs of nuclear enemies. 

Granted I can never really get the game theory to work in my head, but I think it has a maybe irrationally pacific effect on both parties. 


Jurgis

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2020, 03:31:18 PM »
I think mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence actually go a long way insofar as a conflict between India and China is concerned, maybe even exceptionally so among former or current pairs of nuclear enemies. 

Granted I can never really get the game theory to work in my head, but I think it has a maybe irrationally pacific effect on both parties.

I think that (large scale) war between India and China is not going to happen.

But I also think that nuclear deterrence between India and China is much less guaranteed than it was between West and Soviet block. IMO both India and China could think that the war would not go nuclear because it would be regional and not "large scale".
« Last Edit: June 19, 2020, 03:34:40 PM by Jurgis »
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aryadhana

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2020, 04:05:22 PM »
I think mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence actually go a long way insofar as a conflict between India and China is concerned, maybe even exceptionally so among former or current pairs of nuclear enemies. 

Granted I can never really get the game theory to work in my head, but I think it has a maybe irrationally pacific effect on both parties.

I think that (large scale) war between India and China is not going to happen.

But I also think that nuclear deterrence between India and China is much less guaranteed than it was between West and Soviet block. IMO both India and China could think that the war would not go nuclear because it would be regional and not "large scale".

That's why I find the game theory a little confusing.  For deterrence to work (meaning, for some degree of bloody conventional war to be less likely than it would have been if neither party had nuclear weapons), you ought to be committed making a first strike under at least some circumstances.  I suspect strictly regional wars that don't percolate elsewhere because each party actually believes the other might make a first nuclear strike if they encroach too much somehow must be limited to periodic conflagrations. 


Spekulatius

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2020, 09:38:19 PM »
So a couple of overeager soldiers had a really bad bar prowl about a worthless piece of land and this results in a large scale conflict and nuclear war. I guess that could happen too on 2020.

I donít think itís very likely though.
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jobyts

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2020, 01:06:56 AM »
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

Spekulatius

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2020, 05:58:02 AM »
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.
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jobyts

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #16 on: June 20, 2020, 06:34:18 AM »
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

I don't know for sure. Here's my educated guess. India is militarily inferior to China. There is no anti Chinese sentiments in India (other than the cheap goods impression). The ruling party will get more political mileage if they bully the weaker Pakistan, and the anti Pakistan sentiments is high in India. A war with China will also weaken India's position against Pakistan. So it does not make sense for India for initiating an aggression against China.

stahleyp

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #17 on: June 20, 2020, 07:25:57 AM »
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?
Paul

muscleman

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #18 on: June 20, 2020, 08:10:50 AM »
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.
However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.
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muscleman

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #19 on: June 20, 2020, 08:13:45 AM »
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

This is not likely because it will make businesses think China is so unstable that they should move out.
Not everything is motivated by economic reasons in non-capitalism countries.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!