Author Topic: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically  (Read 5832 times)

stahleyp

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3861
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #20 on: June 20, 2020, 09:13:31 AM »
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.
However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.


muscle, I give you a lot of credit for calling it like it is and not having a lot of bias from your home country. That is rare but it is appreciated.
Paul


jobyts

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 99
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #21 on: June 20, 2020, 09:43:59 AM »

This is not likely because it will make businesses think China is so unstable that they should move out.
Not everything is motivated by economic reasons in non-capitalism countries.

Makes sense.

muscleman

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3364
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2020, 07:40:24 AM »
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.
However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.


muscle, I give you a lot of credit for calling it like it is and not having a lot of bias from your home country. That is rare but it is appreciated.

Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

physdude

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 88
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #23 on: June 21, 2020, 08:50:20 AM »
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.
However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.


muscle, I give you a lot of credit for calling it like it is and not having a lot of bias from your home country. That is rare but it is appreciated.

Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

If that is true, that is a seriously dumb move by the Indians. While both sides will suffer in a war, India will have it much worse given its more fragile economy and also given its rapidly worsening COVID situation.

jobyts

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 99
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2020, 05:58:11 AM »

Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

What is your source of information? It's hard to get the true info on these issues.

jobyts

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 99
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #25 on: June 22, 2020, 06:04:58 AM »
It seems like the first incident probably happened as an impulsive road rage like situation, not a pre-planned from the upper levels (from both the countries). Soldiers don't do brawl, they only shoot, if it's directed from their officers.

muscleman

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3364
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #26 on: June 22, 2020, 06:31:07 AM »

Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

What is your source of information? It's hard to get the true info on these issues.

The source is from a youtuber who have been spot on with COVID since December.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

muscleman

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3364
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #27 on: June 22, 2020, 07:55:54 AM »
It seems like the first incident probably happened as an impulsive road rage like situation, not a pre-planned from the upper levels (from both the countries). Soldiers don't do brawl, they only shoot, if it's directed from their officers.

Right.. But at the moment Modi seems to have lost control of the Indian army. There have been massive Indian troops coming to the border yesterday, and India just ordered 21 jet fighters from Russia. (China was such a fool to think Russia is its ally, and it kept buying crude oil from Russia at $110 per barrel to support this relationship when they could have bought it from Texas at negative $37.)
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

Pelagic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 365
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #28 on: June 22, 2020, 08:23:31 AM »
Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

Doesn't this speak to the quality of troops and leadership in the region on both sides? Why were Indian officers not able to stop their troops from entering Chinese territory seeking revenge? And why did a modern military suffer ~40 casualties to troops armed with blade weapons and batons?

Scary to imagine a larger regional war starting over what sounds like it is essentially a local feud between border guards.

rranjan

  • Lifetime Member
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 378
Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #29 on: June 22, 2020, 09:35:53 AM »
Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

Doesn't this speak to the quality of troops and leadership in the region on both sides? Why were Indian officers not able to stop their troops from entering Chinese territory seeking revenge? And why did a modern military suffer ~40 casualties to troops armed with blade weapons and batons?

Scary to imagine a larger regional war starting over what sounds like it is essentially a local feud between border guards.

Based on all readings, I don't think it was a local spontaneous fued between guards.


Here is one view point of how China sees it. Not sure if it's correct, but you can read.

CHINA’S STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF THE LADAKH CLASH

https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-the-ladakh-clash/