Author Topic: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically  (Read 9004 times)

muscleman

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #30 on: June 22, 2020, 10:51:10 AM »
Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

Doesn't this speak to the quality of troops and leadership in the region on both sides? Why were Indian officers not able to stop their troops from entering Chinese territory seeking revenge? And why did a modern military suffer ~40 casualties to troops armed with blade weapons and batons?

Scary to imagine a larger regional war starting over what sounds like it is essentially a local feud between border guards.

That is because back in 1970s India and China reached an agreement that troops along the border should not carry firearm weapons. They can only carry sticks. So when the Indian soldiers crossed the border with blades, the Chinese troops could only fight back with sticks. That caused all 20 of them to die. The other 20 died in a separate camp where one side claimed it was an unfortunate natural disaster of landslide, and the other side claimed that the India army engineers plotted a small bomb that caused the landslide.
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jobyts

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #31 on: June 22, 2020, 12:45:33 PM »

They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

I was reading https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53118473

y understanding (from my 10 minute reading) is, the LAC is a line, and the patrolling happens by the countries only on their own side. So in the first clash where the 3 Indian soldiers died, some invasion happened - don't know who did it. Since you mentioned "Chinese army promptly retreated", it sounds like the first clash happened on the Indian side, so an invasion happened first by the Chinese soldiers, right? While the revenge encounter done by the Indian soldiers, as you mentioned, the Indians must have crossed the LAC to the Aksai Chin (China administrated) area.

By "disputed area", are you referring to the poorly defined LAC line where there is some dispute on the exact location of the line, or the whole Aksai Chin region?

wisdom

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #32 on: June 22, 2020, 01:56:07 PM »
One should not look at the incident in isolation.

PLA started building up troops in the Galwan valley after 40 odd years and this happened. Coincidence? This is most likely a plan by CPC to distract its population and create support for the CPC amongst all the economic hardship.

The same is being experienced by countries from Taiwan, Vietnam to India. The only difference was that Indians responded unlike the smaller countries.

The deal on HK has been thrown out. In diplomatic circles you see the wolf warrior policy in play - from Canada to Australia. This is all part of the larger plan for China to dominate the region and show it's power.

CPC feels the time has come to take its position in the world and have things happen their way. The question to consider is whether they have calculated correctly or will the world respond if they upset enough countries.

That will define what the next few decades look like.

rranjan

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #33 on: June 22, 2020, 03:20:57 PM »
One should not look at the incident in isolation.

Yes, there are other events happening at same time. Even this incident doesn't look like just a fight gone bad.

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U.S. Intel: China Ordered Attack on Indian Troops in Galwan River Valley

...
The assessment contradicts China's subsequent assertions about what happened last week. And it indicates the deadly and contentious incident Ė in which at least 20 Indian and 35 Chinese troops died, and reportedly a handful on each side were captured and subsequently released Ė was not the result of a tense circumstance that spiraled out of control, as has happened before, but rather a purposeful decision by Beijing to send a message of strength to India.
...
On June 15, a senior Indian officer and two non-commissioned officers traveled unarmed to a meeting place where they expected to be met by a comparable delegation of Chinese troops to discuss the withdrawal, according to the source familiar with the U.S. assessment of the incident. Instead, dozens of Chinese troops were waiting with spiked bats and clubs and began an attack. Other Indian troops came in to support, leading to a melee that caused more casualties from the improvised weapons, rocks and falls from the steep terrain.
....
Analysts say it's clear the incident did not pan out as China intended, not in the least because its state media outlets have all but erased the incident from their pages in the week since it took place.
...

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-22/us-intel-source-china-ordered-attack-on-indian-troops-in-galwan-river-valley

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Given other incidents happening at same time with different countries, all events  could well be a planned and co-ordinated. If that's the case then I don't think that we have seen the end of it.

Usnews could be simply getting information from Indian sources and may be biased as well , but I don't have much trust in information coming out of China as well. 

Hopefully, I am wrong and it's simply a coincidence that all events are happening at same time.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #34 on: June 25, 2020, 10:57:55 AM »
People in the western world would think it is irrational for the war to break out because there is nothing to gain from it. But they probably don't understand the Chinese government. In the past, leaders used wars to grab power and gain full control of the army. The 1979 China-Vietnam war was the typical example for Xiaoping Deng to grab power.

Similar is said about Putin in this article:

Putinís goal today is the same as when he invaded my country in 2008: to tighten his grip on the levers of power in Russia. Whenever Putinís domestic popularity dips, he either escalates an ongoing conflict or launches a new offensive.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/15/russias-next-land-grab-wont-be-in-an-ex-soviet-state-it-will-be-in-europe-putin-saakashvili-sweden-finland-arctic-northern-sea-route-baltics-nato/

muscleman

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2020, 06:09:44 PM »
The youtuber I listen to got the list of 38 Chinese solider who died in this conflict. The Chinese government told their relatives to keep it as a top secret and no funeral is allowed and they should not tell their neighbors that their sons died. This is complete disrespect of these soldiers. I feel sad for these folks and their relatives.
At the same time, both sides continued to add more and more troops to the border, and China started building more bunkers in areas they just promised to retreat in the negotiation days ago.
That's how China does things. People who believe China will respect the US phase one trade deal or the original WTO treaties are just fools.
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jobyts

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #36 on: June 26, 2020, 02:07:36 AM »
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/09/642587456/chinese-firms-now-hold-stakes-in-over-a-dozen-european-ports

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/experts-warn-of-chinas-influence-at-us-ports


China owns ports in SriLanka, Pakistan, and lots of african countries. To African and other poor countries, China helps to improve their country's infrastructure, on condition that it would be the Chinese workers doing the job. These are all going to be military bases, when a conflict arises.

This is a long term defense strategy of China on its way to become the super power. India does not hold a chance to fight against China, if China decides to use Pakistan and SriLanka as military bases.

Spekulatius

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #37 on: June 26, 2020, 04:13:40 AM »
The youtuber I listen to got the list of 38 Chinese solider who died in this conflict. The Chinese government told their relatives to keep it as a top secret and no funeral is allowed and they should not tell their neighbors that their sons died. This is complete disrespect of these soldiers. I feel sad for these folks and their relatives.
At the same time, both sides continued to add more and more troops to the border, and China started building more bunkers in areas they just promised to retreat in the negotiation days ago.
That's how China does things. People who believe China will respect the US phase one trade deal or the original WTO treaties are just fools.

Isnít the fact that the chinese keep this under wraps consistent with trying to prevent escalation. If they wanted to escalate,the first hing to do is getting your population screaming for revenge by parading the dead soldiers as heroís.

Also owning a harbor is akin to owning a commercial license to operate a harbor. It does not mean they can use them as a staging ground for the military, which als most certainly would get them into trouble with the host country.

Now the Chinese build these infrastructure projects not just as an investment, and a way to recycle their trading surplus, but also to buy influence, but I doubt it buys enough to allow them to use those countries as a staging ground for their military.
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Jurgis

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #38 on: June 26, 2020, 06:59:32 AM »
Now the Chinese build these infrastructure projects not just as an investment, and a way to recycle their trading surplus, but also to buy influence, but I doubt it buys enough to allow them to use those countries as a staging ground for their military.

You are very likely right about EU ports (especially in NATO countries).
Outside EU is another question. NPR article claims:

Quote
For instance, Chinese investments in the ports of Djibouti, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have been followed by Chinese naval deployments.

I did not search further what exactly "naval deployments" mean.
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mcliu

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Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
« Reply #39 on: June 26, 2020, 07:08:00 AM »
Quote
For instance, Chinese investments in the ports of Djibouti, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have been followed by Chinese naval deployments.

I did not search further what exactly "naval deployments" mean.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti