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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: muscleman on June 14, 2020, 09:01:59 AM

Title: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 14, 2020, 09:01:59 AM
Both sides have been adding lots of militants along the entire China-India border but only Indian media have been reporting this.

People in the western world would think it is irrational for the war to break out because there is nothing to gain from it. But they probably don't understand the Chinese government. In the past, leaders used wars to grab power and gain full control of the army. The 1979 China-Vietnam war was the typical example for Xiaoping Deng to grab power.

The past presidents have been forcing army generals to state their loyalty to the president, and that created a big problem. When the next president came in power, he tries everything he could to remove these generals, and force the new generals to state their loyalty. Now with the current president, no generals want to state their loyalty anymore because they don't want to go to jail when the next president comes. So the current president is very upset with that. I think he may plan the China-India war on purpose for his personal gains.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: stahleyp on June 16, 2020, 05:15:57 AM
Surprise this isn't getting more interest. But muscleman might just be right again:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/army-officer-2-jawans-killed-in-violent-face-off-with-china-troops/articleshow/76401229.cms
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: petec on June 16, 2020, 05:47:52 AM
It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 16, 2020, 10:24:05 AM
It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol.
So if it is not India, which country else is a better target?

And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: mcliu on June 16, 2020, 11:25:38 AM
That escalated quickly.

"India’s army said on Tuesday 20 of its soldiers had been killed in clashes with Chinese troops at a disputed border site, in a major escalation of a weeks-long standoff between the two Asian giants in the western Himalayas."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china/india-china-troops-clash-at-himalayan-border-casualties-on-both-sides-idUSKBN23N0ZU
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: arcube on June 16, 2020, 11:33:40 AM
It is in China's best interest to create chaos so that India comes off as an unstable place for many businesses to pivot from China to India. The good thing right now is that India has a very strong leader so no bullying will work. If this escalates, it will be to Trump's advantage to really take on China or broker peace and look good. China is playing this multi prolonged warfare against India through Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. At some point, India  will say Fuck It and go on offensive even though it is not her nature. India (current ruling party) doesn't have a lot to loose at this stage, China surely does. Let's see what the next couple weeks bring.

It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol.
So if it is not India, which country else is a better target?

And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 16, 2020, 03:09:24 PM
It is in China's best interest to create chaos so that India comes off as an unstable place for many businesses to pivot from China to India. The good thing right now is that India has a very strong leader so no bullying will work. If this escalates, it will be to Trump's advantage to really take on China or broker peace and look good. China is playing this multi prolonged warfare against India through Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. At some point, India  will say Fuck It and go on offensive even though it is not her nature. India (current ruling party) doesn't have a lot to loose at this stage, China surely does. Let's see what the next couple weeks bring.

It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol.
So if it is not India, which country else is a better target?

And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.

I think a China-Vietnam type of war in 1979 will be the play book. A quick war ending in weeks.
Back in 1962 India invaded this area with a lot of its elite troops, far outnumbered the Chinese army, but got defeated. I think the same could happen again.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: rranjan on June 16, 2020, 04:29:21 PM
American intelligence believes 35 Chinese troops died, including one senior officer, a source familiar with that assessment tells U.S. News. The incident took place during a meeting in the mountainous region between the two sides – both of which had agreed to disarm – to determine how the two militaries would safely withdraw their presences from the region.

The meeting grew tense and resulted in a physical confrontation between the troops. According to the assessment, all of the casualties were from the use of batons and knives and from falls from the steep topography, the source says.

According to the U.S. assessment, the Chinese government considers the casualties among their troops as a humiliation for its armed forces and has not confirmed the numbers for fear of emboldening other adversaries, the source says.

The sources who spoke with the Times said 43 Chinese troops died in the fighting.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades

-----------------

So it's esclating, but all casualties seems to be due to close priximity physical fights. Not really gun fights or anynthing like that.

I am pretty sure that both sides will try to find solution.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 19, 2020, 07:42:47 AM
American intelligence believes 35 Chinese troops died, including one senior officer, a source familiar with that assessment tells U.S. News. The incident took place during a meeting in the mountainous region between the two sides – both of which had agreed to disarm – to determine how the two militaries would safely withdraw their presences from the region.

The meeting grew tense and resulted in a physical confrontation between the troops. According to the assessment, all of the casualties were from the use of batons and knives and from falls from the steep topography, the source says.

According to the U.S. assessment, the Chinese government considers the casualties among their troops as a humiliation for its armed forces and has not confirmed the numbers for fear of emboldening other adversaries, the source says.

The sources who spoke with the Times said 43 Chinese troops died in the fighting.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades

-----------------

So it's esclating, but all casualties seems to be due to close priximity physical fights. Not really gun fights or anynthing like that.

I am pretty sure that both sides will try to find solution.

The Chinese officials refused to disclose these numbers so far, which makes me think that the casualties is much higher than Indians and it would be a disgrace to disclose those.

I think the war risk has risen dramatically to 70% since yesterday, as Modi ordered big rallies across multiple Indian cities and carried the dead bodies of these Indian soldiers. Now the Indian people have been emotionally motivated, and there is very little room for Modi to back down his tough stance.
Then today, he ordered the Indian soldiers to use firearms at their own judgement without further need for approval.

On the China side, I think Xi wants the war to solidify his grab of power on the army.
So it seems like the stage is all set for the war.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: rkbabang on June 19, 2020, 12:02:17 PM
I am pretty sure that both sides will try to find solution.

This is what everyone thought on all sides before WWI.  Politics is stupid and leads to unimaginable horrors over and over again.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: aryadhana on June 19, 2020, 03:14:36 PM
I think mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence actually go a long way insofar as a conflict between India and China is concerned, maybe even exceptionally so among former or current pairs of nuclear enemies. 

Granted I can never really get the game theory to work in my head, but I think it has a maybe irrationally pacific effect on both parties. 
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Jurgis on June 19, 2020, 03:31:18 PM
I think mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence actually go a long way insofar as a conflict between India and China is concerned, maybe even exceptionally so among former or current pairs of nuclear enemies. 

Granted I can never really get the game theory to work in my head, but I think it has a maybe irrationally pacific effect on both parties.

I think that (large scale) war between India and China is not going to happen.

But I also think that nuclear deterrence between India and China is much less guaranteed than it was between West and Soviet block. IMO both India and China could think that the war would not go nuclear because it would be regional and not "large scale".
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: aryadhana on June 19, 2020, 04:05:22 PM
I think mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence actually go a long way insofar as a conflict between India and China is concerned, maybe even exceptionally so among former or current pairs of nuclear enemies. 

Granted I can never really get the game theory to work in my head, but I think it has a maybe irrationally pacific effect on both parties.

I think that (large scale) war between India and China is not going to happen.

But I also think that nuclear deterrence between India and China is much less guaranteed than it was between West and Soviet block. IMO both India and China could think that the war would not go nuclear because it would be regional and not "large scale".

That's why I find the game theory a little confusing.  For deterrence to work (meaning, for some degree of bloody conventional war to be less likely than it would have been if neither party had nuclear weapons), you ought to be committed making a first strike under at least some circumstances.  I suspect strictly regional wars that don't percolate elsewhere because each party actually believes the other might make a first nuclear strike if they encroach too much somehow must be limited to periodic conflagrations. 

Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Spekulatius on June 19, 2020, 09:38:19 PM
So a couple of overeager soldiers had a really bad bar prowl about a worthless piece of land and this results in a large scale conflict and nuclear war. I guess that could happen too on 2020.

I don’t think it’s very likely though.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: jobyts on June 20, 2020, 01:06:56 AM
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Spekulatius on June 20, 2020, 05:58:02 AM
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: jobyts on June 20, 2020, 06:34:18 AM
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

I don't know for sure. Here's my educated guess. India is militarily inferior to China. There is no anti Chinese sentiments in India (other than the cheap goods impression). The ruling party will get more political mileage if they bully the weaker Pakistan, and the anti Pakistan sentiments is high in India. A war with China will also weaken India's position against Pakistan. So it does not make sense for India for initiating an aggression against China.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: stahleyp on June 20, 2020, 07:25:57 AM
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 20, 2020, 08:10:50 AM
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.
However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 20, 2020, 08:13:45 AM
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

This is not likely because it will make businesses think China is so unstable that they should move out.
Not everything is motivated by economic reasons in non-capitalism countries.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: stahleyp on June 20, 2020, 09:13:31 AM
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.
However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.


muscle, I give you a lot of credit for calling it like it is and not having a lot of bias from your home country. That is rare but it is appreciated.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: jobyts on June 20, 2020, 09:43:59 AM

This is not likely because it will make businesses think China is so unstable that they should move out.
Not everything is motivated by economic reasons in non-capitalism countries.

Makes sense.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 21, 2020, 07:40:24 AM
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.
However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.


muscle, I give you a lot of credit for calling it like it is and not having a lot of bias from your home country. That is rare but it is appreciated.

Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: physdude on June 21, 2020, 08:50:20 AM
My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.
However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.


muscle, I give you a lot of credit for calling it like it is and not having a lot of bias from your home country. That is rare but it is appreciated.

Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

If that is true, that is a seriously dumb move by the Indians. While both sides will suffer in a war, India will have it much worse given its more fragile economy and also given its rapidly worsening COVID situation.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: jobyts on June 22, 2020, 05:58:11 AM

Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

What is your source of information? It's hard to get the true info on these issues.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: jobyts on June 22, 2020, 06:04:58 AM
It seems like the first incident probably happened as an impulsive road rage like situation, not a pre-planned from the upper levels (from both the countries). Soldiers don't do brawl, they only shoot, if it's directed from their officers.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 22, 2020, 06:31:07 AM

Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

What is your source of information? It's hard to get the true info on these issues.

The source is from a youtuber who have been spot on with COVID since December.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 22, 2020, 07:55:54 AM
It seems like the first incident probably happened as an impulsive road rage like situation, not a pre-planned from the upper levels (from both the countries). Soldiers don't do brawl, they only shoot, if it's directed from their officers.

Right.. But at the moment Modi seems to have lost control of the Indian army. There have been massive Indian troops coming to the border yesterday, and India just ordered 21 jet fighters from Russia. (China was such a fool to think Russia is its ally, and it kept buying crude oil from Russia at $110 per barrel to support this relationship when they could have bought it from Texas at negative $37.)
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Pelagic on June 22, 2020, 08:23:31 AM
Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

Doesn't this speak to the quality of troops and leadership in the region on both sides? Why were Indian officers not able to stop their troops from entering Chinese territory seeking revenge? And why did a modern military suffer ~40 casualties to troops armed with blade weapons and batons?

Scary to imagine a larger regional war starting over what sounds like it is essentially a local feud between border guards.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: rranjan on June 22, 2020, 09:35:53 AM
Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

Doesn't this speak to the quality of troops and leadership in the region on both sides? Why were Indian officers not able to stop their troops from entering Chinese territory seeking revenge? And why did a modern military suffer ~40 casualties to troops armed with blade weapons and batons?

Scary to imagine a larger regional war starting over what sounds like it is essentially a local feud between border guards.

Based on all readings, I don't think it was a local spontaneous fued between guards.


Here is one view point of how China sees it. Not sure if it's correct, but you can read.

CHINA’S STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF THE LADAKH CLASH

https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-the-ladakh-clash/
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 22, 2020, 10:51:10 AM
Thanks.

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.
They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

Doesn't this speak to the quality of troops and leadership in the region on both sides? Why were Indian officers not able to stop their troops from entering Chinese territory seeking revenge? And why did a modern military suffer ~40 casualties to troops armed with blade weapons and batons?

Scary to imagine a larger regional war starting over what sounds like it is essentially a local feud between border guards.

That is because back in 1970s India and China reached an agreement that troops along the border should not carry firearm weapons. They can only carry sticks. So when the Indian soldiers crossed the border with blades, the Chinese troops could only fight back with sticks. That caused all 20 of them to die. The other 20 died in a separate camp where one side claimed it was an unfortunate natural disaster of landslide, and the other side claimed that the India army engineers plotted a small bomb that caused the landslide.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: jobyts on June 22, 2020, 12:45:33 PM

They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.
That's invasion. It is ugly.

I was reading https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53118473

y understanding (from my 10 minute reading) is, the LAC is a line, and the patrolling happens by the countries only on their own side. So in the first clash where the 3 Indian soldiers died, some invasion happened - don't know who did it. Since you mentioned "Chinese army promptly retreated", it sounds like the first clash happened on the Indian side, so an invasion happened first by the Chinese soldiers, right? While the revenge encounter done by the Indian soldiers, as you mentioned, the Indians must have crossed the LAC to the Aksai Chin (China administrated) area.

By "disputed area", are you referring to the poorly defined LAC line where there is some dispute on the exact location of the line, or the whole Aksai Chin region?
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: wisdom on June 22, 2020, 01:56:07 PM
One should not look at the incident in isolation.

PLA started building up troops in the Galwan valley after 40 odd years and this happened. Coincidence? This is most likely a plan by CPC to distract its population and create support for the CPC amongst all the economic hardship.

The same is being experienced by countries from Taiwan, Vietnam to India. The only difference was that Indians responded unlike the smaller countries.

The deal on HK has been thrown out. In diplomatic circles you see the wolf warrior policy in play - from Canada to Australia. This is all part of the larger plan for China to dominate the region and show it's power.

CPC feels the time has come to take its position in the world and have things happen their way. The question to consider is whether they have calculated correctly or will the world respond if they upset enough countries.

That will define what the next few decades look like.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: rranjan on June 22, 2020, 03:20:57 PM
One should not look at the incident in isolation.

Yes, there are other events happening at same time. Even this incident doesn't look like just a fight gone bad.

-----------

U.S. Intel: China Ordered Attack on Indian Troops in Galwan River Valley

...
The assessment contradicts China's subsequent assertions about what happened last week. And it indicates the deadly and contentious incident – in which at least 20 Indian and 35 Chinese troops died, and reportedly a handful on each side were captured and subsequently released – was not the result of a tense circumstance that spiraled out of control, as has happened before, but rather a purposeful decision by Beijing to send a message of strength to India.
...
On June 15, a senior Indian officer and two non-commissioned officers traveled unarmed to a meeting place where they expected to be met by a comparable delegation of Chinese troops to discuss the withdrawal, according to the source familiar with the U.S. assessment of the incident. Instead, dozens of Chinese troops were waiting with spiked bats and clubs and began an attack. Other Indian troops came in to support, leading to a melee that caused more casualties from the improvised weapons, rocks and falls from the steep terrain.
....
Analysts say it's clear the incident did not pan out as China intended, not in the least because its state media outlets have all but erased the incident from their pages in the week since it took place.
...

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-22/us-intel-source-china-ordered-attack-on-indian-troops-in-galwan-river-valley

---------------

Given other incidents happening at same time with different countries, all events  could well be a planned and co-ordinated. If that's the case then I don't think that we have seen the end of it.

Usnews could be simply getting information from Indian sources and may be biased as well , but I don't have much trust in information coming out of China as well. 

Hopefully, I am wrong and it's simply a coincidence that all events are happening at same time.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 25, 2020, 10:57:55 AM
People in the western world would think it is irrational for the war to break out because there is nothing to gain from it. But they probably don't understand the Chinese government. In the past, leaders used wars to grab power and gain full control of the army. The 1979 China-Vietnam war was the typical example for Xiaoping Deng to grab power.

Similar is said about Putin in this article:

Putin’s goal today is the same as when he invaded my country in 2008: to tighten his grip on the levers of power in Russia. Whenever Putin’s domestic popularity dips, he either escalates an ongoing conflict or launches a new offensive.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/15/russias-next-land-grab-wont-be-in-an-ex-soviet-state-it-will-be-in-europe-putin-saakashvili-sweden-finland-arctic-northern-sea-route-baltics-nato/
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on June 25, 2020, 06:09:44 PM
The youtuber I listen to got the list of 38 Chinese solider who died in this conflict. The Chinese government told their relatives to keep it as a top secret and no funeral is allowed and they should not tell their neighbors that their sons died. This is complete disrespect of these soldiers. I feel sad for these folks and their relatives.
At the same time, both sides continued to add more and more troops to the border, and China started building more bunkers in areas they just promised to retreat in the negotiation days ago.
That's how China does things. People who believe China will respect the US phase one trade deal or the original WTO treaties are just fools.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: jobyts on June 26, 2020, 02:07:36 AM
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/09/642587456/chinese-firms-now-hold-stakes-in-over-a-dozen-european-ports

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/experts-warn-of-chinas-influence-at-us-ports


China owns ports in SriLanka, Pakistan, and lots of african countries. To African and other poor countries, China helps to improve their country's infrastructure, on condition that it would be the Chinese workers doing the job. These are all going to be military bases, when a conflict arises.

This is a long term defense strategy of China on its way to become the super power. India does not hold a chance to fight against China, if China decides to use Pakistan and SriLanka as military bases.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Spekulatius on June 26, 2020, 04:13:40 AM
The youtuber I listen to got the list of 38 Chinese solider who died in this conflict. The Chinese government told their relatives to keep it as a top secret and no funeral is allowed and they should not tell their neighbors that their sons died. This is complete disrespect of these soldiers. I feel sad for these folks and their relatives.
At the same time, both sides continued to add more and more troops to the border, and China started building more bunkers in areas they just promised to retreat in the negotiation days ago.
That's how China does things. People who believe China will respect the US phase one trade deal or the original WTO treaties are just fools.

Isn’t the fact that the chinese keep this under wraps consistent with trying to prevent escalation. If they wanted to escalate,the first hing to do is getting your population screaming for revenge by parading the dead soldiers as hero’s.

Also owning a harbor is akin to owning a commercial license to operate a harbor. It does not mean they can use them as a staging ground for the military, which als most certainly would get them into trouble with the host country.

Now the Chinese build these infrastructure projects not just as an investment, and a way to recycle their trading surplus, but also to buy influence, but I doubt it buys enough to allow them to use those countries as a staging ground for their military.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Jurgis on June 26, 2020, 06:59:32 AM
Now the Chinese build these infrastructure projects not just as an investment, and a way to recycle their trading surplus, but also to buy influence, but I doubt it buys enough to allow them to use those countries as a staging ground for their military.

You are very likely right about EU ports (especially in NATO countries).
Outside EU is another question. NPR article claims:

Quote
For instance, Chinese investments in the ports of Djibouti, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have been followed by Chinese naval deployments.

I did not search further what exactly "naval deployments" mean.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: mcliu on June 26, 2020, 07:08:00 AM
Quote
For instance, Chinese investments in the ports of Djibouti, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have been followed by Chinese naval deployments.

I did not search further what exactly "naval deployments" mean.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Xerxes on June 26, 2020, 08:35:37 AM
I don't mean to derail, those interested in the "muddiness" of the central Asian countries borders would be interested in this book.
It is a favorite of mine.

https://www.amazon.com/Great-Game-Struggle-Central-Kodansha/dp/1568360223/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=great+game&qid=1593185601&sr=8-1
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Spekulatius on June 26, 2020, 07:27:11 PM
Quote
For instance, Chinese investments in the ports of Djibouti, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have been followed by Chinese naval deployments.

I did not search further what exactly "naval deployments" mean.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti

Yes, but this port in question is a dedicated chinese naval base and it is next to an US naval base. it is not a port with unauthorized second use as naval base.

But I agree that thing could be quite muddy in some neighborhoods around the globe.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Castanza on June 30, 2020, 01:10:41 PM
FWIW, it looks like there is some footage of the incident and the aftermath that has surfaced on various websites. However I won't share them here, but if you dig hard enough I'm sure you can find them if you really want to see them. All I will say it, there were plenty of bullets exchanged.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: alpha on June 30, 2020, 09:49:45 PM
Both sides have been adding lots of militants along the entire China-India border but only Indian media have been reporting this.

People in the western world would think it is irrational for the war to break out because there is nothing to gain from it. But they probably don't understand the Chinese government. In the past, leaders used wars to grab power and gain full control of the army. The 1979 China-Vietnam war was the typical example for Xiaoping Deng to grab power.

The past presidents have been forcing army generals to state their loyalty to the president, and that created a big problem. When the next president came in power, he tries everything he could to remove these generals, and force the new generals to state their loyalty. Now with the current president, no generals want to state their loyalty anymore because they don't want to go to jail when the next president comes. So the current president is very upset with that. I think he may plan the China-India war on purpose for his personal gains.


I don't think this is a credible risk. There have always been skirmishes along the Indian border and China's focus is on the South China sea right now. The CCP won't allow a skirmish with India to escalate and risk bringing further international attention to their operations in the South China Sea which is their strategic priority.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Castanza on July 31, 2020, 07:34:20 AM
I know this is about India and China but I figured it was better than starting a new thread.

How long will the world stand by and watch this happen?

- People blindfolded and loaded on buses (verified by western intelligence)
- Forced sterilization of women including forced abortions
- Suspected organ harvesting
- 12 tons of human hair confiscated (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/01/china-muslim-labor-camps-uighur-hair-products)

How would you go to war with a country that provides so much of your resources and products?
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on August 05, 2020, 08:19:59 AM
I think the war risk is close to zero now.
I heard a shocking news today that in June, some Chinese soldiers died inside armored vehicles after the Indian soldiers poked through the armor by spear and knife.
It smells like big corruption in the Chinese army and their suppliers.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on September 17, 2020, 05:34:13 PM
I am bumping the probability of the war risk up again to 50%.
China has finally acknowledged a lot of death during the June border conflict. This could be a prelude before the war.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: ValuePadawan on September 17, 2020, 07:05:49 PM
I am bumping the probability of the war risk up again to 50%.
China has finally acknowledged a lot of death during the June border conflict. This could be a prelude before the war.

Any confrontation would surely bog down both armies in the Himalayas and end up with some sort of peace agreement. This pushes India closer to Japan the USA and Australia. Not in China's interest and a big mistake for China in my opinion. China keeps picking fights with everyone the US is trying to court.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: Spekulatius on September 17, 2020, 07:34:35 PM
I am bumping the probability of the war risk up again to 50%.
China has finally acknowledged a lot of death during the June border conflict. This could be a prelude before the war.
From zero to 50% War risk  based on a fact that everyone new already. This makes no sense to me whatsoever. This was a stupid but in the end inconsequential incident. I think chances of war are very remote.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on September 17, 2020, 08:40:10 PM
I am bumping the probability of the war risk up again to 50%.
China has finally acknowledged a lot of death during the June border conflict. This could be a prelude before the war.
From zero to 50% War risk  based on a fact that everyone new already. This makes no sense to me whatsoever. This was a stupid but in the end inconsequential incident. I think chances of war are very remote.

Based on a fact that everyone knows? What fact?
The fact that China suddenly started to acknowledge its heavy loss in the June conflict is quite new and only in Chinese media. Do you read those?
Yes we all knew China lost soldiers in June but the fact that it refused to acknowledge that back then implies that it had no intention to escalate. Now is the exact opposite. It wants to escalate.
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: fareastwarriors on September 17, 2020, 09:12:21 PM
2020 would be the year for it
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: muscleman on September 25, 2020, 05:49:05 PM
I don't know how to assess the risk now. China clearly wanted the war but Russia just sent a large amount of troops to the border as the warning. ::)
Title: Re: War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically
Post by: patience_and_focus on September 25, 2020, 10:33:44 PM
I don't know how to assess risk now. China clearly wanted the war but Russia just sent a large amount of troops to the border as the warning. ::)