Author Topic: War risk  (Read 4162 times)

muscleman

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War risk
« on: May 14, 2020, 09:25:46 AM »
COVID is being discussed here extensively but not war. I have a feeling that the possibility of a war in Taiwan has increased from 0% to at least 1%.
I haven't seen any news reports in English so I'll post the Chinese version here.
This guy has been reporting the first hand information on COVID since last December, so I would think his reporting on the war exercise is also good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sk_cGnwhQ10&t=351s

Basically, there was a massive military exercise starting from yesterday until July for various items like invasion of an island, attacking a carrier and defending Beijing. I think it is pretty crazy.
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Liberty

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Re: War risk
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2020, 10:18:03 AM »
Why do you think it was 0% before?
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muscleman

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Re: War risk
« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2020, 10:29:04 AM »
Why do you think it was 0% before?

Because a lot of Chinese corrupt officials have their kids and assets parked in the US. If the war starts, their assets will be counterfeited by the US government. They will do everything they can to stabilize events.
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Liberty

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Re: War risk
« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2020, 12:44:55 PM »
Why do you think it was 0% before?

Because a lot of Chinese corrupt officials have their kids and assets parked in the US. If the war starts, their assets will be counterfeited by the US government. They will do everything they can to stabilize events.

Seems like that's not gone and not zero, but I agree risk has been increasing. Just don't think it ever was zero.

US has also tremendous dependence on Taiwan for electronics (TSMC, etc), and would hurt itself a lot in any conflict, like China.
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stahleyp

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Re: War risk
« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2020, 12:50:02 PM »
The US and Taiwan would be allies against China in all likelihood.
Paul

mjm

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Re: War risk
« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2020, 01:05:01 PM »
see fab plant suppose to be built in AZ

fareastwarriors

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Re: War risk
« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2020, 01:29:11 PM »
This is definitely in too hard pile. :)

cubsfan

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Re: War risk
« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2020, 01:35:59 PM »
China wants total control of the South China Sea - any action against Taiwan will be a problem for Korea, Japan, Philippines,etc.
The US will have a real problem with any escalation against Taiwan.

Liberty

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Re: War risk
« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2020, 01:53:49 PM »
The US and Taiwan would be allies against China in all likelihood.

And everyone would lose.
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stahleyp

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Re: War risk
« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2020, 01:54:14 PM »
The US and Taiwan would be allies against China in all likelihood.

And everyone would lose.

No, Liberty (the concept) would win. ;)
Paul