Author Topic: War risk  (Read 4332 times)

stahleyp

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Re: War risk
« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2020, 01:56:29 PM »
China wants total control of the South China Sea - any action against Taiwan will be a problem for Korea, Japan, Philippines,etc.
The US will have a real problem with any escalation against Taiwan.

There is no reason to think the US would escalate anything with Taiwan. Taiwan wants freedom. China wants "One-China."
Paul


Viking

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Re: War risk
« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2020, 02:50:25 PM »
If i had to pick highest probability of armed conflict it would be an oil country like Libya or even Iran. The longer oil stays low, combined with a possible resurgence of the virus In the fall, the greater the odds of armed conflict.

Also, if down in the polls in Sept an easy way to mobilize base is to be involved in armed conflict. Americans will rally around the flag/President. Low cost and high reward. Given the way politics is done today in the US this is also highly rational and easily justifiable. Win at all costs. Morals? Ethics? Right? Does not matter. ‘The alternative is so much worse’. Anything can be easily justified :-)

stahleyp

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Re: War risk
« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2020, 05:56:48 PM »
Paul

cubsfan

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Re: War risk
« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2020, 07:41:04 PM »
China wants total control of the South China Sea - any action against Taiwan will be a problem for Korea, Japan, Philippines,etc.
The US will have a real problem with any escalation against Taiwan.

There is no reason to think the US would escalate anything with Taiwan. Taiwan wants freedom. China wants "One-China."


I'm saying Chinese aggression against Taiwan would be met with US force, just as other allies in the area. All the allies
have reason to fear China's expansion into the South China Sea.

stahleyp

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Re: War risk
« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2020, 05:32:55 AM »
China wants total control of the South China Sea - any action against Taiwan will be a problem for Korea, Japan, Philippines,etc.
The US will have a real problem with any escalation against Taiwan.

There is no reason to think the US would escalate anything with Taiwan. Taiwan wants freedom. China wants "One-China."


I'm saying Chinese aggression against Taiwan would be met with US force, just as other allies in the area. All the allies
have reason to fear China's expansion into the South China Sea.

Agreed.
Paul

stahleyp

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Re: War risk
« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2020, 08:01:35 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/15/tech/tsmc-arizona-chip-factory-intl-hnk/index.html

Trump isn't all bad. Even if this required some a lot of handouts, probably a better use of taxpayer's money than other things (unless it turns out like Foxconn in WI which is certainly a possibility).
Paul

Liberty

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Re: War risk
« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2020, 08:03:53 AM »
The US and Taiwan would be allies against China in all likelihood.

And everyone would lose.

No, Liberty (the concept) would win. ;)

How naive you are. You think China would come out of a world war more democratic? You think liberty in the US would increase in the face of nuclear war? You think Taiwan wouldn't be potentially destroyed? You think dead people are free?
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Liberty

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Re: War risk
« Reply #17 on: May 15, 2020, 08:04:50 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/15/tech/tsmc-arizona-chip-factory-intl-hnk/index.html

Trump isn't all bad. Even if this required some a lot of handouts, probably a better use of taxpayer's money than other things (unless it turns out like Foxconn in WI which is certainly a possibility).

Not being all bad isn't a bar you want to set for yourself.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

LC

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Re: War risk
« Reply #18 on: May 15, 2020, 08:12:54 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/15/tech/tsmc-arizona-chip-factory-intl-hnk/index.html

Trump isn't all bad. Even if this required some a lot of handouts, probably a better use of taxpayer's money than other things (unless it turns out like Foxconn in WI which is certainly a possibility).

What exactly did Trump's administration do here? The article you posted does not mention anything.
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stahleyp

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Re: War risk
« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2020, 08:32:40 AM »
The US and Taiwan would be allies against China in all likelihood.

And everyone would lose.

No, Liberty (the concept) would win. ;)

How naive you are. You think China would come out of a world war more democratic? You think liberty in the US would increase in the face of nuclear war? You think Taiwan wouldn't be potentially destroyed? You think dead people are free?

Didn't Germany and Japan come out of a world war more democratic?
Paul