Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1740952 times)

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4140 on: August 29, 2019, 10:24:54 AM »
Cash.

Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more.

Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+.

Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today.

VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling:

1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!)

2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again.

Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market).

Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today.

Yea, Im getting the same gut feeling. Everything of late seems like a bull trap. Cyclicals just don't move on up days and then get flattened on down days. Everything gets faded. Many names within an earshot of or at 52 week lows. Even non correlated assets are getting sold off. My top performer this month is basically a triple net REIT....

Seems like I was wrong this time around. Closed the extra positions but continue to hold the core hedge.

We'll see. It seems every time something recovers(be it the economic news, stock market, or whatever) Donny thinks he's got money in the bank to go wage war on someone...

We'll see. I have a hard time deciphering politics, but if I had to guess, both sides are ready for a reprieve at this point and willing to take a little break from the tit-for-tat. I'm thinking the Chinese are refusing to escalate now because

1) They're trying to limit the immediate damage to their economy and draw this out over time
2) They're trying to delay when the damage occurs until election season to maximize the odds that Trump gets removed from office

Why escalate now if doing so in a month or two better achieves those goals?

Still holding the core hedge position just in-case, but wouldn't be surprised to see us take-off and approach the highs from here. Just glad I repurchased most of my covered calls at this point which means I can still benefit slightly from the upward volatility when it comes time to re-sell them.


sleepydragon

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4141 on: August 29, 2019, 10:33:44 AM »
Chinese are sending tanks into HK. Obviously they donít want two wars at the same time. As long as US do not interfere with their HK crack down, China will want to reach deal sooner, preferably before they crack down the demonstrations in HK before the 10/1 holiday. If they delay reaching a deal, it will only get more difficult as protests in HK continue to escalate.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4142 on: August 29, 2019, 10:50:04 AM »
Just snagged some more GRIF at 34.9, cuz why not

Cardboard

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4143 on: August 29, 2019, 10:56:37 AM »
"They're trying to delay when the damage occurs until election season to maximize the odds that Trump gets removed from office"

I believe that this strategy could easily backfire with the bunch of "crazies" on the Democratic side to borrow the expression from Stanley Druckenmiller.

Trump is in a weak spot and they know it. Might as well sign an easier deal now.

Cardboard

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4144 on: August 29, 2019, 11:04:00 AM »
Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October.

SHDL

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4145 on: August 29, 2019, 11:32:42 AM »
Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October.

My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever.  cc: @netflix

DooDiligence

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4146 on: August 29, 2019, 03:23:33 PM »
Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October.

My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever.  cc: @netflix

Done.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N1R9W4X/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
AFL // BRK.B // CLB an incredibly stupid move // DIS // EW // GPC // MO an incredibly stupid ex-CEO // NVO // PSX // ULTA // VDE // VLGEA // WFC

Investable cash 16% + 18 months of survival $

SHDL

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4147 on: August 29, 2019, 05:33:06 PM »
Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October.

My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever.  cc: @netflix

Done.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N1R9W4X/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

I have probably become a bit too desensitized by everything to be blown away by anything short of an insanely over the top fiction piece, but thanks.  :)

Lance

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4148 on: August 30, 2019, 09:05:40 AM »
MSG

Thanks
Lance

no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4149 on: August 30, 2019, 09:20:17 AM »
MO.   I think people should really look at this one.  Yes there are risks, but I have watched the tobacco industry have a target on it since I started investing 20 years ago.  They just push through it.  I am just not sure if MO or PM is the better pick but went with MO as it is cheaper.