Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1476170 times)

Castanza

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4350 on: November 14, 2019, 09:07:39 AM »
Starter position in TPL and STOR


boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4351 on: November 14, 2019, 10:13:29 AM »
Wrote HPQ 19-strike Nov 22 expiration puts for $0.35 per share--a risk arbitrage play.

Wrote some HPQ 19.5-strike Nov 29 puts for $0.40 per share.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4352 on: November 14, 2019, 01:49:25 PM »
Bought a few shares of RH after hours looking for a quick buck. All I can say is, wow... really Berkshire? LOL

Broeb22

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4353 on: November 14, 2019, 03:01:45 PM »
Gregmal, seems like PTON is only modestly more difficult to short than WeWork.

How big of a TAM and durable of a business can there possibly be for $2-4,000 pieces of exercise equipment and $40 per month subscriptions in an industry with a long history of fad exercise programs (and diets)?

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4354 on: November 14, 2019, 04:14:16 PM »
Gregmal, seems like PTON is only modestly more difficult to short than WeWork.

How big of a TAM and durable of a business can there possibly be for $2-4,000 pieces of exercise equipment and $40 per month subscriptions in an industry with a long history of fad exercise programs (and diets)?

I dont disagree. FWIW I sold my puts on the run down and have this on the radar for a re entry either with puts or an outright short. The product is 100% a fad...its a Nordic Track with an iPad with Youtube for $40 a month... Ive been a member at some super duper high end and expensive gyms, and at times tried all the new buzz worthy fitness stuff. The truth is, for 90% of the population(the 90% of the top 10% that can actually afford this shit), this stuff is fun and captivating in the beginning and then you just get tired of it.

The bull case for NordicTrack, I mean Pelaton, is not that they'll sell a million machines, its the recurring revenue and subscriptions. To me, the on demand stuff is neat, and Im still trying to tally the meaningfulness of that. But at $40 a month or whatever? When people arguably won't pay $40 a month anymore for a full TV package... or they can get a full gym membership for $30 a month? Or even get fitness videos for free on Youtube and the like?

So yea, its kind of a no brainer, but it'll come down to timing so if you're going to put the trade on you either need to buy puts, or give yourself a very cut and clear catalyst but also a running start into it because once everyone else notices the catalyst the opportunity goes away. I typically like revisiting these a couple months ahead of the lockup expiration. Its important to remember, this isn't a SV tech company. Where all the employees are snobby dickbags and dont value money, ie, they'll hold their stock until they become billionaires because worst case they just move to the next venure and try again in a year...Its Beyond Meat or Tilray... normal people working at a company that just found themselves sitting on a restricted amount of life changing money, made in a short period of time, and they likely cant pass that up. The VC folks know this as well, which is typically why you see these get obliterated in the 2-3 month period sandwiching the lockup expiration, so typically 2 months out is an ideal time to start laying the ground work for your position.

Broeb22

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4355 on: November 15, 2019, 04:01:41 AM »
Will you pay for the puts by selling puts well below the current price, or do you like to buy a little more OTM to reduce option cost?

Knowing you have specific short term catalysts and willingness to have some conviction, Iím betting youíre staying pretty close to the money and buying naked most of the time.

Thanks for the color on PTON.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4356 on: November 15, 2019, 05:10:25 AM »
Will you pay for the puts by selling puts well below the current price, or do you like to buy a little more OTM to reduce option cost?

Knowing you have specific short term catalysts and willingness to have some conviction, Iím betting youíre staying pretty close to the money and buying naked most of the time.

Thanks for the color on PTON.

It really depends. With some of the crazy high borrow cost names Ive found going 30% or so OTM and a year plus out does the trick. If you get a reasonable move down it takes care of itself. Otherwise you are still predominantly holding the time value. Whereas short dated and at the money you need to be so pinpoint with your timing its a little too much of a risk for me. Ive seen shit like BYND where you have something more or less at the money pricing in a 10% weekly move which is just insanely difficult to make money on.

no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4357 on: November 15, 2019, 12:36:18 PM »
ISV.TO.  I see returns as 5% dividend + 5-6% growth.  The dividend should protect the downside.  In a niche market.  Just a 1% position.

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4358 on: November 15, 2019, 05:52:41 PM »
WFCF (food / meat certification business), which finally showed  some decent earnings and  better operating metrics. I was following the stock for quite some time and liked the business, but wasnít comfortable with valuation and execution until after the recent earnings report, which showed some promise.

DD (bought back some shares again).
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

alpha

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4359 on: November 17, 2019, 07:57:59 PM »
Bought some OXY this week (yes followed Berkshire in)