Buying CELG, selling BMY. Effectively buying the CVR @ $1.84, which was valued at $3.83 in May by BMY (

link, page 10).

The preliminary estimate of the fair value of the CVRs was determined by applying a probability weighting to the potential $9.00 per share payment reflecting the probability of achieving all three necessary approvals. The probability-weighted value was then discounted to present value using a credit risk-adjusted discount rate.

As far as I know, all three legs are still 'on track'. According to the latest CELG 10Q:

Ide-cel (bb2121): The BLA submission for ide-cel in 4L+ multiple myeloma is expected in the first half of 2020

Ozanimod: The U.S. FDA accepted the New Drug Application (NDA) for ozanimod for the treatment of patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS) and set a PDUFA date of March 25, 2020

Liso-cel (JCAR017): The BLA submission for liso-cel in patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma after at least 2 prior therapies is on-track for the fourth quarter of 2019

One can do both legs on margin. Deal close expected

tomorrow. No sure money, but a decent bet. Time to leverage up the account?!