Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1926559 times)

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5486
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4390 on: November 22, 2019, 10:39:23 AM »
I bought more BMY CVR.

I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value.
What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid  a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important  drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesnít take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMYís management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if itís not the plan right now.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2019, 10:42:05 AM by Spekulatius »
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.


Lance

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 415
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4391 on: November 22, 2019, 12:02:36 PM »
IMBBY and VIXY


Thanks
Lance

writser

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2236
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4392 on: November 22, 2019, 12:06:30 PM »
I bought more BMY CVR.

I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value.
What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid  a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important  drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesnít take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMYís management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if itís not the plan right now.

For sure the intentional delays are a risk. But I don't think they are a deal-breaker. Some good discussion in the comments here.
I'm sorry if I have offended you. Please contact this forum's safe space coordinator to work things out.

@thewritser

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5486
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4393 on: November 22, 2019, 12:40:57 PM »
I bought more BMY CVR.

I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value.
What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid  a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important  drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesn’t take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMY’s management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if it’s not the plan right now.

For sure the intentional delays are a risk. But I don't think they are a deal-breaker. Some good discussion in the comments here.

My own view of how management in large corporate settings works, has over the years dimmed enough that I assume that if there is a possibility to game an outcome, it will be gamed in all likelihood.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2019, 01:10:21 PM by Spekulatius »
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

hillfronter83

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 253
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4394 on: November 23, 2019, 06:47:31 AM »
I bought more BMY CVR.

I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value.
What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid  a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important  drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesnít take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMYís management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if itís not the plan right now.

For sure the intentional delays are a risk. But I don't think they are a deal-breaker. Some good discussion in the comments here.

My own view of how management in large corporate settings works, has over the years dimmed enough that I assume that if there is a possibility to game an outcome, it will be gamed in all likelihood.

Don't disagree with risk from intentional delay. However in this case, they already filed NDA for ozanimod and its decision is due in a few months. Since CVR is tradable, i expect market'll react on ozanimod decision, which IMO is a high probability event.

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5486
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4395 on: November 25, 2019, 02:53:18 PM »
Bought back some recently trimmed CMCSA today. Down ~3.5% today, anyone knows the reason?

Anyways, the stock is surprisingly cheap still, trades at <8.5x Y2020 EBITDA. once they reach their leverage target next year, they can resume stock buybacks again. Lots to like - management track record, low leverage, broadband, theme parks and humming along, Telemundo and CNBC gaining market share over the years.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

boilermaker75

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1263
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4396 on: November 26, 2019, 06:46:08 AM »
Wrote HPQ 19-strike Nov 22 expiration puts for $0.35 per share--a risk arbitrage play.

Wrote some HPQ 19.5-strike Nov 29 puts for $0.40 per share.

Wrote some more HPQ 19.5-strike Nov 29 expiration puts and some 19.5-strike Dec 6 expiration puts.

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4871
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4397 on: November 26, 2019, 09:27:17 AM »
Started a bit of CLXT

SafetyinNumbers

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 703
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4398 on: November 28, 2019, 07:13:38 PM »
I bought some Arrow Exploration (AXL.V). Itís an oil producer in Colombia that emerged from reverse takeover / spin off from CNE.TO in November.

Given itís a micro cap spinoff there could be some irrational selling going on.

Each Canacol share received .127 shares of AXL, so itís a trivial amount for what is now a 35 cent stock. CNE shares trade at $4.40.

CNE valued each AXL share at US$0.885 each at the time of the spin and itís trading so itís down about 70% from that level in less than 6 months. Perhaps they were optimistic in how they valued it but it certainly has taken a haircut now.

Management owns 18% and cannot sell the majority shares for 18 months and the stock has to be above US$1.50.

EV is less than C$30m with 2P NPV at C$125m and the company is producing 1500 boe/d now and guiding to exit at 3000 boe/d. Itís production is tied to Brent pricing so it looks cheap on traditional oil company metrics.

I added a little more AXL.V today. I have been buying all of the way down so obviously my buying has not been predictive of future positive performance.

Reported Q3 and announced plans to pursue a strategic alternatives process.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/28/1953814/0/en/Arrow-Exploration-Corp-Announces-Third-Quarter-2019-Financial-and-Operating-Results-and-Initiation-of-Strategic-Alternatives-Process.html#.XeB-cq5pVfM.twitter

I guess we'll see if there is a different price for private assets vs public markets in this case.

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4871
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4399 on: November 29, 2019, 09:08:45 AM »
Got a smidge more of GRIF. Would buy more but it just doesnt seem like theres any to be had. Mainly it looks like shares are all dried up below $40. Heading into year end, with low floater, light volume, and other potential news, I like the setup.