Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1793605 times)

boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4530 on: January 24, 2020, 02:28:59 PM »
Been writing GILD puts, would like to acquire some with a basis < $63.


Lance

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4531 on: January 24, 2020, 02:30:30 PM »
Wrote puts on GEO.

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Lance

eatliftinvestgolf

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4532 on: January 27, 2020, 07:05:48 AM »
Added to my WFC position.

Lance

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4533 on: January 27, 2020, 07:51:58 AM »
DD, TCO and WMB

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Lance

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4534 on: January 27, 2020, 09:14:20 AM »
bought back some msgn

cherzeca

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4535 on: January 27, 2020, 09:33:56 AM »
AMC, BCS, AGN

I was looking at AMC $5 call 1/21/22 last price $2.  seems awfully cheap but cant pull trigger.  earnings CC end of February

boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4536 on: January 27, 2020, 10:02:20 AM »
Been writing GILD puts, would like to acquire some with a basis < $63.

Wrote some more 63-strike, Jan 31 expiration puts for $0.60 per share.

no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4537 on: January 27, 2020, 10:50:08 AM »
bought back some msgn

I have to admit, it is looking very cheap at these levels.  Something like 5-6x fcf if I remember the numbers correctly.  Do you have any insight into what has sparked the selloff?

KJP

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4538 on: January 27, 2020, 11:00:58 AM »
bought back some msgn

I have to admit, it is looking very cheap at these levels.  Something like 5-6x fcf if I remember the numbers correctly.  Do you have any insight into what has sparked the selloff?

Look at MSGN sub losses over the last few quarters and look at, for example, Comcast's recent commentary on its expected video sub losses in 2020.  Then look at how MSGN earns revenue versus how it pays MSG for rights and see how MSGN would be squeezed in the event continuing sub losses overwhelm the per-sub price escalators built into its contracts with video providers.  You can see a scenario in which FCF isn't what it used to be.  Of course, there are also potential upside scenarios as well.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #4539 on: January 27, 2020, 11:10:51 AM »
Basically, theres a huge concentration of subs with Comcast and Altice/Optimum. Both of which have potential renewal issues.

Much has been discussed on the MSGN thread previously, and now on top of that, you have the fact that the company was just willing to repurchase 25% of the shares at 16.75 and still have a sizable buyback in place, plus the resources to do much more.

My investment confidence however still doesnt really involve sub counts or decline rates, although admittedly, that will drive this thing short term. But on an absolutely basis, the rights to televise Knicks and Ranger games is worth something, and theres no way its worth less than what the Cincinnati Reds or whomever else are worth. To someone like Amazon the acquisition is a rounding error but could be reasonably impactful to certain of their own ventures. Or, it can be reacquired by the MSG stub which is was spun out from. A lot of ways to win. In the meantime all the FCF will go toward repurchases and debt reduction.