Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1742639 times)

Santayana

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5140 on: March 26, 2020, 09:00:02 AM »
The daily "reset" feature of those leveraged ETFs means they won't always behave the way you think they will.


TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5141 on: March 26, 2020, 01:14:37 PM »
Bought more puts. Sold another 3% or so of my longs.

The data says I'm right to still be concerned and that this gets worse before it gets better.

The stock market says "f*ck the recession and the accelerating pandemic - we'll trade at average multiples of trailing earnings that are guaranteed to drop dramatically"

One of us will be right but it certainly sucks to be me right now.

cherzeca

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5142 on: March 26, 2020, 02:04:02 PM »
The daily "reset" feature of those leveraged ETFs means they won't always behave the way you think they will.

they work 3x per day, so I realize that there can be variance from a straight line move.  I have played with it before and I am aware that it can be a wild ride.  I am just making a relatively small directional bet over a recovery period.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5143 on: March 26, 2020, 02:28:22 PM »
Bought a few SDS calls into the close. Kind of hoping to hedge out and "get ahead" of those looking to "get ahead" of those getting out of the market before the weekend...

dpetrescu

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5144 on: March 27, 2020, 12:28:42 AM »
Hereís my prediction:

In 10 years, all of us will still be in here looking for things to invest in. Will stock prices will be higher or lower in 2030 compared to today? Market tops and bottoms donít exist in real time, they only exist in retrospect.

Iím willing to guess prices will be a whole lot higher and that 10-20% will be barely noticeable. Iím also willing to guess most of the appreciation will be mostly due to a handful of random days. Iíll also guess we shouldnít be surprised that prices will be lower in the next month or so than today.

The only conclusion I come up with is keep buying and holding, donít trade the volatility. You miss one or two days and you miss out. The only question is how to raise funds and how to manage the buying based on the funds you have and how long should you buy heavily?

scorpioncapital

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5145 on: March 27, 2020, 04:11:14 AM »
Hereís my prediction:

In 10 years, all of us will still be in here looking for things to invest in. Will stock prices will be higher or lower in 2030 compared to today? Market tops and bottoms donít exist in real time, they only exist in retrospect.

Iím willing to guess prices will be a whole lot higher and that 10-20% will be barely noticeable. Iím also willing to guess most of the appreciation will be mostly due to a handful of random days. Iíll also guess we shouldnít be surprised that prices will be lower in the next month or so than today.

The only conclusion I come up with is keep buying and holding, donít trade the volatility. You miss one or two days and you miss out. The only question is how to raise funds and how to manage the buying based on the funds you have and how long should you buy heavily?

If it will be higher due to inflation it's a nothing burger.

orthopa

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5146 on: March 27, 2020, 11:06:21 AM »
The daily "reset" feature of those leveraged ETFs means they won't always behave the way you think they will.

Can you expand more on this? Is it along the lines of the decay with the leveraged vxx etf/ns?
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 11:13:00 AM by orthopa »

Schwab711

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5147 on: March 27, 2020, 11:10:09 AM »
The daily "reset" feature of those leveraged ETFs means they won't always behave the way you think they will.

they work 3x per day, so I realize that there can be variance from a straight line move.  I have played with it before and I am aware that it can be a wild ride.  I am just making a relatively small directional bet over a recovery period.

https://twitter.com/PlainSite/status/1240375739981025285

As a heads up. In general, they don't work as well in highly volatile markets because a lot of the market movement tends to occur in 'gaps' and not during market hours.

sleepydragon

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5148 on: April 01, 2020, 09:05:24 AM »
WFC

plato1976

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #5149 on: April 01, 2020, 11:25:45 AM »
A few bad news related to this name, not sure if fully priced in:

1. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-banks-dividends/uk-banks-scrap-dividends-on-coronavirus-fears-pressure-on-bonuses-idUSKBN21I3AN
UK banks halt dividends due to gov pressure. They are reasonably capitalized so not sure if US banks will follow

2. I think more importantly, there is some worry about mortgage impairment recently that's getting intense. Seems we need to regulator to lighten up some regulation so banks don't need to take a big hit to their capital when they provide some relief to borrowers in temporary difficulty (like 3 months) -- without it banks may dive


WFC